1月13日盘中，集运指数（欧线）期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至1210.3点。截止发稿， 集运指数（欧线）主力合约报1220.4点，跌幅3.81%。 指数方面，1月9日，SCFI欧线指数为1719美元/TEU，较上期上涨1.7%。线上运价方面，HPL1月至2月 上半月大柜运价2735美金，下调300美金；CMA2月初大柜运价3893美金，下调200美金。地缘方面，1 月12日，哈马斯已向埃及方面提交一份包含40名候选人的名单，由埃及从中挑选成员组成未来的加沙管 理委员会。综合而言，光伏等产品取消出口退税政策带来抢运预期，短期情绪面利多，但相关产品占欧 线货量仅约5%，加上04合约处在传统需求淡季，建议谨慎看待上方空间，关注今日马士基开舱价指 引。期价随资金博弈波动，谨慎操作。 国泰君安期货：集运指数（欧线）04轻仓试空 集运指数（欧线）：关注开舱指引；04轻仓试空。出口退税政策催生"抢出口"预期带动盘面反弹。运力 端，观察2026年春节前（week-1至week-5)、春节中(week0至week2）以及春节后（week3至week5）的运 力分布情况：2026年大年初一是2月17日，位于第8周（即 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the sustained growth in the global AI investment, which continues to drive the electronic industry chain's prosperity, while domestic demand remains weak, leading to price improvements in coal and automobiles under anti-involution policies [1] Group 2 - In the electronic industry chain, the demand for high-performance storage chips is increasing due to overseas AI server investments, resulting in a significant rise in storage prices, with DRAM prices increasing by 5.6% month-on-month [3] - The real estate market shows weakness, with a 25.0% year-on-year decline in transaction volume across 30 major cities, and inventory pressure is increasing, causing continued downward pressure on housing prices [2] - The automotive sector shows signs of stabilization, with a 7.0% year-on-year increase in retail sales of passenger cars, and a 6.8% increase in average retail prices compared to the previous month [2] Group 3 - The logistics sector is experiencing growth in freight logistics, with a 24.7% increase in highway truck traffic and an 8.8% increase in postal and express collection volume week-on-week, driven by increased export demand [4] - Coal prices have risen by 5.5% month-on-month due to supply constraints and high demand from power plants, while industrial metal prices are under pressure due to anticipated demand declines following new tariffs [3]