文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘低开高走，整体上涨。 1. 最近红利低波动、自由现金流等指数基金，也创下历史新高。 有朋友问，这些指数基金创下新高，但是估值上，感觉没有太高，是啥原因呢？ 2. 这要回到指数基金的收益公式。 截止到收盘，大盘还在4.1星，距离4.0星很接近了。 大中小盘股都上涨，涨幅差不多。 前几天成长风格连续下跌，价值风格上涨。 红利、现金流等回到了正常估值。 今天变成成长风格上涨较多，价值风格微涨。 市场还是风格轮动的。 港股上午下跌，到下午快速拉涨。 港股医药、港股科技领涨。 最近港股财报陆续更新，港股医药、科技股的盈利同比增长比较良好，带动指数上涨。 指数基金净值=估值*盈利+分红。 对红利指数来说： （1）这几年估值数值略有提升。 像前几年中证红利在8-9倍居多，这两年在9-10倍上下居多。 上半年很多红利指数的估值还更低一些，最近几个月上涨后，估值很多回到了正常偏低。 红利、价值、低波动、现金流等价值风格指数，有一个特点： 通常在调仓的时候，会重新挑选估值较低的一批股票，这会让它们的估值数值降低。 例如红利指数，每年12月份会指数调仓，重新挑选股息率最高的一批股票。 ...

Group 1 - The core concept of the article revolves around the "smile curve" and its implications for investment strategies in the context of market cycles and company earnings growth [1][5][11] - The article discusses the importance of dollar-cost averaging during periods of loss to lower the average cost of holdings, which can lead to profitability when the market recovers [5] - It emphasizes that the long-term growth of company earnings is a fundamental driver of stock market performance, despite short-term fluctuations [42][44] Group 2 - The article explains that the earnings growth of companies is not uniform and is influenced by economic cycles, leading to alternating phases of market optimism and pessimism [11][14] - It highlights that the Hong Kong stock market has recently transitioned to the right side of the smile curve, indicating a recovery phase after a significant downturn [16][19] - The technology and pharmaceutical sectors in Hong Kong are noted to have entered the recovery phase, with expected earnings growth in 2024 and 2025 [24][26][28] Group 3 - The article provides a detailed analysis of the valuation metrics for various Hong Kong indices, including price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields, indicating potential investment opportunities [33][34][36] - It discusses the cyclical nature of earnings growth and how it affects market valuations, with specific reference to the A-share market's recovery lagging behind that of Hong Kong [38][40] - The article concludes with two explanations for the long-term growth of company earnings: inflation and improvements in production efficiency driven by technological innovation, urbanization, and globalization [44][52][56]