文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘盘中上涨，最高的时候摸到4.2星。 到收盘有所回落，还在4.3星，距离4.2星不远。 大盘股下跌，小盘股波动不大。 最近市场还是风格轮动的，不同风格品种都有表现的阶段。 遇到市场波动的时候，价值风格往往更稳定。 自由现金流指数，前段时间比较低迷，最近开始发力，成为最近领涨的品种。 目前自由现金流指数还在低估，不过距离正常估值也不远了。 含有价值风格比较多的月薪宝，今天也上涨。 消费最近也开始发力。 港股今天也整体下跌。 港股科技股等成长风格下跌略多，港股红利等跌幅比较小。 历史上牛市上涨过程中，也不会是一帆风顺的。 即便是2007、2015年牛市，中间也有过数次回调。 也要做好面对波动的心理准备～ 1. [大吉大利，今天吃基] 第379期的螺丝钉定投实盘来啦。 时间：2025年8月26日 方案：定投买入 品种： 指数增强投顾组合： 回到正常估值，暂停定投，继续持有。后面回到低估后继续。 主动优选投顾组合：9668元 月薪宝投顾组合：10000元 最近市场上涨，本周发车金额有所降低。 本周： · 指数增强组合回到正常估值，暂停定投，继续持有。后面回到低估后继续。 ...

从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1481.61元/股，下跌0.59%；五粮液收盘价达129.74元/股，下跌0.15；山 西汾酒收盘价达207.90元/股，上涨1.08%；泸州老窖收盘价达140.83元/股，上涨1.32%；洋河股份收盘 价达74.42元/股，上涨0.20%。 北京商报讯（记者 刘一博 冯若男）8月26日尾盘，沪指3868.38点下跌0.39%。白酒板块2410.43点收盘 微涨0.05%，其中12只白酒股下跌，贵州茅台1481.61元/股收盘。 方正证券在其研报中指出，当前市场风格轮动较快，风险偏好趋稳，资金逐步由高位板块向具备业绩确 定性及估值安全边际的板块倾斜。白酒近1年/2年/5年市盈率分位数分别为21.81%/10.93%/4.37%，当前 估值已处底部，在政策回暖与基本面复苏双重驱动下，板块已完成筑底，估值重塑与业绩逐步修复可 期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market trend shows a rapid rotation between value and growth stocks, reminiscent of the market dynamics observed from 2013 to 2017, with potential for various sectors to experience upward momentum [4][5][6][26]. Market Performance - The overall market closed higher today, returning to a rating of 4.5 stars, with small and mid-cap stocks showing more significant gains compared to large-cap stocks [1][2][3]. - The Hong Kong stock market has been relatively sluggish, experiencing a decline today, despite having seen three waves of increases since last September [8][9][10]. Historical Comparison - The current market conditions are compared to the period from 2013 to 2017, where the A-share market faced a bear market due to poor fundamentals and declining corporate profits [13][28]. - The introduction of stimulus policies in 2014 led to a significant recovery in the market, particularly in the financial sector, which drove the overall market upward [14][15]. - The years 2016-2017 saw a recovery in the fundamentals of listed companies, leading to a slow bull market for value stocks, while growth stocks experienced a downturn [21][24]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to follow a similar trajectory to 2013-2014, with a potential recovery in corporate fundamentals anticipated in the latter half of 2024, coinciding with expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [28][29][30]. - The first wave of the upcoming market rally is likely to be led by the financial sector, with small-cap and technology stocks expected to follow suit in 2025 [31][32]. Investment Strategy - The investment approach remains consistent: buy during market dips and sell during peaks, while maintaining patience for optimal exit opportunities [45][47]. - The prolonged bear market from 2022 to 2024 has provided ample opportunities for accumulating quality assets through systematic investment [46].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, highlighting the rotation between different market styles, particularly between large-cap and small-cap stocks, as well as growth and value styles. It emphasizes the importance of understanding valuation changes and the underlying factors affecting them. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall A-share market has risen over 10% this year, while the Hong Kong market has outperformed with a 24% increase [10] - The main drivers of this year's gains are the Hong Kong market, small-cap stocks, and growth styles, particularly in technology and pharmaceuticals [11] - Despite the overall market rise, some stocks have seen their valuations decrease since the beginning of the year [12] Group 2: Valuation Changes - Valuation declines can occur due to several reasons: market declines, increased earnings growth, and index rebalancing [13][15] - Even if an index rises, if the underlying companies' earnings grow more significantly, the index's valuation can decrease [14] - Value style indices often experience valuation drops during rebalancing as they select lower-valued stocks [16] Group 3: Specific Sector Analysis - Consumer and liquor sectors have seen valuation declines this year, primarily due to weak fundamentals [18][19] - Quality indices, which focus on high ROE stocks, have shown slight increases this year, but their valuations have not improved significantly [27] - Dividend indices have also seen slight increases, but their valuations have decreased due to earnings growth [31][36] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Value and dividend strategies tend to perform better in bear markets, while growth strategies dominate in bull markets [44] - The article suggests that for investors concerned about market volatility, value and fixed-income strategies may offer a more stable investment approach [56][58] - The article provides a valuation table for dividend indices, indicating potential investment opportunities [45]

长期主导市场的美国大型科技股涨势或将迎来拐点。历史数据显示，在美联储开启降息周期的背景下， 市场风格可能发生转变，为估值更低、交易热度相对不高的小盘股创造接棒领涨的机会。 上周五疲软的美国就业数据成为一个关键催化剂，该数据显著提升了市场对美联储将启动降息的预期。 目前市场认为美联储在9月会议上降息25个基点的概率高达95%，并且几乎完全消化了到明年1月前降息 三次的预期。 这一预期的转变立即在市场表现上得到印证。上周五，随着降息预期升温，以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100指数下跌2%，标普500指数下跌1.6%。相比之下，更能反映中小市值公司表现的标普500等权重指数 仅下跌1%，展现出更强的韧性。 Jefferies的策略师认为，这可能预示着投资者开始从大型科技股中轮动出去的时机已经到来。这一观点 也得到了BCA Research等机构的认同，后者已将科技股评级下调至中性，建议投资者锁定利润。 历史暗示降息利好小盘股 Jefferies策略师Andrew Greenebaum在一份客户报告中指出，美联储的鸽派转向往往会引发市场风格的转 变，而这一次的背景是科技股在指数中的权重已达到创纪录高位。 Jefferie ...

Market Overview - The overall market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.17% while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.77% [1] - More than 3,500 stocks declined across the two markets, indicating a significant downward trend [1] Industry Performance - Strong performing sectors included steel, oil and petrochemicals, and media, with the steel sector seeing a 63% profit increase among key enterprises in the first half of the year [2] - The oil and petrochemical sector benefited from macro policy support and seasonal demand, while the media sector was boosted by successful film releases and consumer promotion policies [2] - Weak performing sectors included electric equipment, computers, and automobiles, with the electric equipment sector facing disappointing earnings reports and price declines [2] Future Outlook - The A-share market is expected to see a combination of policy and industrial upgrades that may drive continuous rotation in market styles [3] - The cyclical sectors are anticipated to experience valuation recovery due to supportive policies and increased infrastructure investment [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a rebound in the first half of the year, supported by valuation, while the profit side showed a certain degree of negative contribution [1] - Small-cap and low-valuation stocks outperformed, while high-profitability combinations only performed well in the first quarter [1] - The upcoming mid-year performance window in July and August is expected to lead to a temporary recovery in profit factors [1] Group 2 - The market has maintained a rebound trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, but trading volume has been decreasing [2] - Short-term operations should focus on the rotation rhythm among hot sectors, while a clear trend in the market may require waiting for significant changes in economic fundamentals, incremental policies, and liquidity [2] - The market's downside space is relatively limited due to the ongoing function of central Huijin's "stabilization fund" [2]

Group 1 - The risk premium percentile of the CSI All Share Index is 71.95%, indicating that the market has returned from a high return area to a normal return area [1][8] - The price-to-book ratio percentile of the CSI All Share Index is 21.54%, suggesting that the market has returned from an undervalued state to a normal but slightly undervalued state [12] - The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 800 are still in an undervalued state, warranting close attention [13] Group 2 - The CSI All Share Index's deviation rate is -0.03%, indicating that the overall price level of the market is in a normal range [16] - The ChiNext 50 has returned to a basic normal range after two months of recovery from an oversold state [19] - Over the past six months, the performance of value and growth styles has varied, and the value vs. growth style has yet to be defined, with future trends still to be observed [23] Group 3 - The performance of low valuation styles has generally been superior over the past six months, but high valuation styles have shown strong performance in the past month, suggesting investors should closely monitor the potential transition between high and low valuation styles [27] - Small-cap styles have significantly outperformed over the past six months, indicating a need for future focus on small-cap style targets [29] Group 4 - There has been a certain degree of excess return for convertible bonds relative to the CSI All Share Index over the past six months, suggesting that investors should consider convertible bond varieties from an asset allocation perspective [2][44] - Different types of convertible bonds have shown varying performance over the past six months, with a recommendation to focus on equity-oriented targets [48] Group 5 - The report emphasizes the importance of market style rotation, highlighting the differences in performance between value vs. growth, low vs. high valuation, and large vs. small capitalization stocks [20][21] - The report identifies that the performance of small-cap stocks has been notably superior, suggesting a focus on small-cap style targets moving forward [29] Group 6 - The report discusses industry/theme index rotation, focusing on low valuation rotation and dual momentum rotation strategies [33][34] - A selection of reference targets based on valuation factors or momentum factors is provided for investors to consider [37]

Key Points - The report indicates that the risk premium percentile of the CSI All Share Index is 80.41%, suggesting that the market is in a high return zone [1][5] - The report highlights that the price-to-book ratio percentile of the CSI All Share Index is 8.98%, indicating that the market is in a state of severe undervaluation [1][10] - The report notes that the deviation rate of the CSI All Share Index is -4.03%, suggesting that the overall price level of the market is in a normal range [1][13] - The report suggests that the performance of the value style has been significantly superior over the past six months, recommending a focus on value style targets [1][21] - The report also indicates that the performance of the low valuation style has been notably superior over the past six months, advising attention to low valuation style targets [1][24] - The report states that the performance of the small-cap style has been significantly superior over the past six months, recommending a focus on small-cap style targets [1][26] - The report identifies that there has been a certain degree of excess return for convertible bonds relative to the CSI All Share Index over the past six months, suggesting investors pay attention to convertible bond varieties from an asset allocation perspective [1][40]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the A-share market in China, particularly in the context of the ongoing U.S.-China trade situation and its implications for investment strategies and market dynamics [1][3][8]. Key Points and Arguments - **AIE Indicator**: The AIE (Asset Investment Equity) indicator, which measures the equity allocation ratio in the market, predicts a future annualized return of 8.64% over the next three years, down from a previous forecast of 12% [1][4]. - **Revised ERP Model**: The revised ERP (Equity Risk Premium) model suggests maintaining a strategic position of around 60% in equities, contrasting with previous recommendations of being fully invested or in cash [1][5]. - **Market Trends**: Despite short-term volatility due to various factors, including U.S.-China trade relations and monetary policy, the A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend through 2027-2028 [1][6]. - **Internal Market Focus**: The market's attention is shifting from external factors to internal issues such as overcapacity, deflation, real estate downturns, and local government debt, which are becoming critical for future market performance [1][8][9]. - **Investor Sentiment**: Current investor sentiment is nearing historical adjustment levels, indicating potential for market corrections and style rotation risks [1][10][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Sector Rotation**: Recent market style rotation has moved from growth to defensive and then to consumer sectors, with a focus on defensive assets like gold and high-dividend stocks [1][12][18]. - **Investment Value**: High-dividend, low-volatility sectors such as banking, utilities, and transportation are highlighted as having significant investment value in the current market environment [1][13]. - **Impact of Fund Development Plans**: The public fund development action plan may lead to a shift in capital towards underweighted sectors like banking and utilities, negatively impacting sectors like electronics and biomedicine [2][17]. - **Economic Challenges**: The Chinese economy faces challenges such as overcapacity and declining fixed asset investment growth, with corporate earnings yet to confirm a bottom [1][9]. - **Consumer Sector Outlook**: The consumer sector is currently underperforming due to a lack of fundamental support, with expectations for improvement reliant on policy stimulus [1][16]. Conclusion - The A-share market is navigating a complex landscape influenced by both internal economic factors and external trade dynamics. Investors are advised to remain cautious and adaptable to ongoing market changes, focusing on sectors that offer defensive characteristics and potential for recovery.