Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, highlighting the phenomenon of style rotation and the emergence of terms like "old Deng stocks" to describe underperforming stocks in a market characterized by structural bull runs [1][32]. Market Overview - The overall market showed slight gains, maintaining a rating of 4.2 stars [2]. - Both large-cap and small-cap stocks experienced minor increases, with similar growth rates [3]. - There is a noticeable divergence in market performance, with growth styles like the ChiNext showing more significant gains compared to value styles, which are generally declining [5][6]. Style Rotation - The article introduces the term "old Deng stocks," referring to stocks that have seen minimal price increases over the past two years [8][27]. - Examples of "old Deng stocks" include sectors like liquor, home appliances, and coal, which have not performed as well as the recent strong growth sectors such as technology and chips [29][30]. - The discussion of "old Deng stocks" reflects a broader trend of style rotation within the A-share market, where certain categories of stocks outperform while others lag behind [32][34]. Historical Context - The article references past market trends, such as the "big rotten stinky" label for large-cap stocks during the small-cap bull market of 2015, and the "three fools" term for underperforming bank and insurance stocks during the growth bull market of 2020-2021 [10][16][22]. - It notes that the definitions of these terms have evolved over time, with new categories emerging as market dynamics shift [25][26]. Investment Implications - The article suggests that when certain assets are ridiculed, it may present buying opportunities due to potential undervaluation [41][42]. - Conversely, when assets are highly favored, it may indicate a selling opportunity due to potential overvaluation [43][44]. - The cyclical nature of the market is emphasized, indicating that strong-performing stocks may eventually face valuation corrections, while currently underperforming stocks may rise in prominence [38][39].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of investing during bear markets and utilizing strategies like dollar-cost averaging to lower investment costs, ultimately leading to profitability when markets recover [3][6][9]. Group 1: Investor Behavior - A significant portion of investors enter the market during bull runs, with 70% of A-share accounts opened during the bull markets of 2007 and 2015 [2]. - Investors tend to show increased interest and investment during market uptrends, often influenced by the success of peers [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Dollar-cost averaging during market downturns can effectively reduce the average cost of investments, allowing investors to profit even if the market does not return to previous highs [3][4]. - Historical data indicates that investors who consistently engaged in dollar-cost averaging or increased their positions during bear markets were among the first to achieve profitability [6]. Group 3: Experience Accumulation - The initial investment experience, particularly during the first cycle of bear and bull markets, is crucial for learning and developing investment strategies [7][9]. - The recent bear market from 2022 to 2024 is noted as the longest in the past decade, providing valuable lessons for future investment decisions [9]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The article suggests that over the next 30 years, investors are likely to experience multiple cycles of bear and bull markets, presenting numerous opportunities for undervalued purchases and overvalued sales [9][10].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘开盘上涨，到收盘时涨幅回落，微涨微跌，还在4.2星。 大盘股略微上涨，中小盘股下跌。 创业板等成长风格上涨，价值风格相对低迷。 今年随着成长风格上涨，估值逐渐提升，组合里部分基金经理也开始降低成长的比例，提升价值风格比例。 最近这种成长强价值弱的风格也会受到一些影响。 不过长期，我们还是会遵循，哪个风格估值低，在组合里配置比例会提升。 就像去年成长风格大跌，组合也提升了成长风格比例。这样对长期收益有利。 港股今天比较坚挺，整体上涨，港股科技股领涨。 A股半年报更新完，港股大多数股票的财报也更新完毕。 咱们也会对主流指数，二季度的财报增长情况，做个直播课介绍下。感兴趣的朋友欢迎来看～ 1. 前两天有朋友问了一个有意思的问题： 同样一个品种，投资下来，不同投资者收益率差别比较大。 比如说投资主动优选，有的朋友目前收益率在20%多，有的收益率百分之几。 同样是恒生科技，有的朋友收益率30-50%，有的刚开始盈利。 其实这个很正常。 收益率，跟投资者入市时间，以及买入成本有关系。 （1）例如牛市入市，和熊市底部入市，一开始买入成本就有很大区别。 不过遗憾的是，大多数投资 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses investment strategies for index funds, emphasizing the importance of understanding investment techniques to achieve good returns [2] - A free course is offered to help investors learn about index fund investment strategies, including course notes and mind maps for efficient learning [2] Group 2 - Three methods to control market volatility risk are outlined: 1. Dollar-cost averaging (定投) to lower the average cost of holdings during downturns, allowing for profitability without needing to return to previous price levels [8] 2. Diversification by investing in a basket of undervalued funds to reduce risk, with a recommendation to follow managed portfolios for ease [10] 3. Position control, suggesting that the stock allocation in a portfolio should not exceed "100 minus age" for long-term unused funds [12] Group 3 - The article mentions five managed investment portfolios available, including index enhancement and active selection, designed to simplify investment for users [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses three methods to control market volatility risk: dollar-cost averaging, diversification, and position control [2][11]. Group 1: Methods to Control Volatility Risk - **Method 1: Dollar-Cost Averaging** Persisting with dollar-cost averaging during periods of unrealized losses helps to lower the average cost of holdings, allowing for profitability without needing the market to return to previous levels [2]. - **Method 2: Diversification** Different types of stock assets exhibit varying levels of volatility risk, with individual stocks being the most volatile, followed by sectors, broad indices, and fund combinations. A diversified portfolio can mitigate risk by investing in a basket of undervalued funds [2][11]. - **Method 3: Position Control** The article presents a table showing the relationship between stock-bond ratios, maximum drawdown, and annualized returns. Higher stock ratios generally lead to higher long-term returns but also increase volatility risk [3][11]. Group 2: Monthly Treasure Combination - **Composition of Monthly Treasure** The Monthly Treasure combination consists of 40% stock funds and 60% bond funds, designed to meet the needs of conservative investors [5][11]. - **Stock Portion Characteristics** The stock portion focuses on value styles, characterized by lower volatility in bear markets and higher dividend yields, providing stable income regardless of market fluctuations [6][11]. - **Bond Portion Characteristics** The bond portion primarily invests in short- to medium-term bonds, which are less affected by interest rate changes. The current yield for 10-year government bonds is around 1.7%-1.8%, indicating lower attractiveness for long-term pure bonds [6][11]. Group 3: Rebalancing Strategy - **Automatic Rebalancing** The Monthly Treasure combination employs an automatic rebalancing strategy based on valuation, which facilitates "buy low, sell high" actions without requiring investor intervention [8][11]. - **Recent Rebalancing Actions** The article details two recent rebalancing actions, highlighting the strategy of selling outperforming assets and reallocating to underperforming ones to maintain the target asset allocation [9][11]. Group 4: Cash Flow Feature - **Flexible Cash Flow Functionality** The Monthly Treasure combination includes a feature for periodic cash flow distribution, which can be easily turned on or off based on the investor's needs, providing flexibility for long-term investment [10][11].

Group 1 - The core concept of the article revolves around the "smile curve" and its implications for investment strategies in the context of market cycles and company earnings growth [1][5][11] - The article discusses the importance of dollar-cost averaging during periods of loss to lower the average cost of holdings, which can lead to profitability when the market recovers [5] - It emphasizes that the long-term growth of company earnings is a fundamental driver of stock market performance, despite short-term fluctuations [42][44] Group 2 - The article explains that the earnings growth of companies is not uniform and is influenced by economic cycles, leading to alternating phases of market optimism and pessimism [11][14] - It highlights that the Hong Kong stock market has recently transitioned to the right side of the smile curve, indicating a recovery phase after a significant downturn [16][19] - The technology and pharmaceutical sectors in Hong Kong are noted to have entered the recovery phase, with expected earnings growth in 2024 and 2025 [24][26][28] Group 3 - The article provides a detailed analysis of the valuation metrics for various Hong Kong indices, including price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields, indicating potential investment opportunities [33][34][36] - It discusses the cyclical nature of earnings growth and how it affects market valuations, with specific reference to the A-share market's recovery lagging behind that of Hong Kong [38][40] - The article concludes with two explanations for the long-term growth of company earnings: inflation and improvements in production efficiency driven by technological innovation, urbanization, and globalization [44][52][56]

Core Viewpoint - The "Screw Nut Star Rating" is a tool to assess the overall market valuation, with different star ratings indicating varying investment strategies and methods [4][64]. Group 1: Star Rating System - The star rating system ranges from 1 to 5.9 stars, with each level indicating specific market conditions and investment opportunities [6][64]. - 5-5.9 stars represent the best phase for stock and fund investments, characterized by a high number of undervalued options and limited downside risk [10][12][14]. - 4-4.9 stars indicate a phase where some undervalued options remain, but there is a potential for significant market downturns, with historical declines of 30%-40% possible [22][25][28]. - 3-3.9 stars show a scarcity of undervalued options, suggesting a focus on profit-taking as most assets are at normal or high valuations [48][51]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - In the 5-5.9 star phase, the recommended investment strategy includes actively selecting and enhancing index advisory combinations, as this is when stock and fund investments are most valuable [18][19]. - During the 4-4.9 star phase, investors should control volatility risks and consider methods such as dollar-cost averaging and diversified asset allocation to mitigate potential losses [30][36][42]. - In the 3-3.9 star phase, it is advisable to consider profit-taking opportunities, as most assets are either at normal or high valuations, and to explore other asset classes for potential investments [52][57]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Historical Context - The 5-5.9 star phase is often marked by investor pessimism, despite being the most opportune time for investment [14][15]. - Historical data shows that significant market rebounds typically occur after reaching the 5-star level, indicating a strong potential for future gains [12]. - The 1-star rating represents a bubble phase, with extreme valuations rarely seen, and significant market corrections often follow such peaks [60][61].