点击"简七读财"，发送消息"理财" 小白轻松入门~ 晚上好，我是简七~ 最近看到一条新闻：小伙摆摊，一天收入8000元。 底下评论区炸开了锅，有人羡慕「我一个月都赚不到8000」。 我发现，不少朋友搞混了收入、利润、现金流的关系。 刚好，最近有小伙伴说想尝试摆摊。在迈出第一步之前，你可得搞懂生意里的关键指标，免得白忙活一场。 *风险提示：本文所提及的指数/基金，仅为示例参考，不构成任何投资建议。请务必将投资决策权，牢牢把握在自己手中~ 01 什么是自由现金流？ 很多人以为，做生意最重要的是「赚了多少」；但真正懂生意的人会问：「手里留了多少？」 这就是现金流思维，和利润思维的区别。 什么意思呢？用摆摊小伙的例子给你算笔账—— -收入：5万/月（假设） 他当天卖出1,000杯奶昔，每杯8元，销售额8,000块。 但8000块不可能天天有，周末游客多生意好，工作日可能只有一半。我们假设他月收入是5万块。 -成本：3万/月（假设）；利润：2万/月 收到5万块只是开始，他还有硬性支出：材料、员工工资、摊位租金…… 假设每月成本3万块，那么月利润就是2万块。 账面上看，这个生意挺赚钱的，对吧？ 但别急，还有第三步。 -现 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘低开高走，整体上涨。 1. 最近红利低波动、自由现金流等指数基金，也创下历史新高。 有朋友问，这些指数基金创下新高，但是估值上，感觉没有太高，是啥原因呢？ 2. 这要回到指数基金的收益公式。 截止到收盘，大盘还在4.1星，距离4.0星很接近了。 大中小盘股都上涨，涨幅差不多。 前几天成长风格连续下跌，价值风格上涨。 红利、现金流等回到了正常估值。 今天变成成长风格上涨较多，价值风格微涨。 市场还是风格轮动的。 港股上午下跌，到下午快速拉涨。 港股医药、港股科技领涨。 最近港股财报陆续更新，港股医药、科技股的盈利同比增长比较良好，带动指数上涨。 指数基金净值=估值*盈利+分红。 对红利指数来说： （1）这几年估值数值略有提升。 像前几年中证红利在8-9倍居多，这两年在9-10倍上下居多。 上半年很多红利指数的估值还更低一些，最近几个月上涨后，估值很多回到了正常偏低。 红利、价值、低波动、现金流等价值风格指数，有一个特点： 通常在调仓的时候，会重新挑选估值较低的一批股票，这会让它们的估值数值降低。 例如红利指数，每年12月份会指数调仓，重新挑选股息率最高的一批股票。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the current bullish sentiment in the market and the anxiety among investors regarding their equity positions [4][5] - It emphasizes that while it is normal to feel anxious in a rapidly rising market, there is no need for excessive worry as long-term performance is challenging to outperform [5][7] - The article presents data showing that from 2010 to now, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 61.38%, while actively managed equity funds have returned 102.04%, indicating that consistent outperformance is difficult [5][7] Group 2 - The article suggests that investors should gradually increase their risk appetite rather than making drastic changes to their portfolios [10][12] - It recommends optimizing bond fund holdings by transitioning from pure bond funds to those with some equity exposure, thereby increasing risk exposure incrementally [13] - The article also highlights the importance of adjusting dividend stock holdings to include funds with growth attributes, as traditional dividend strategies may lag in a bullish market [15][16] Group 3 - For broad index investments, the article advises switching from the Shanghai Index or CSI 300 to the more balanced and growth-oriented CSI A500 [19] - It suggests that investors holding growth-oriented ETFs should consider upgrading to indices that have stronger performance potential in a bull market [20] - The article emphasizes that any adjustments should be made cautiously to avoid significant risks if the market does not perform as expected [21] Group 4 - The article discusses the optimization of actively managed funds, recommending a shift from deep value funds to balanced value and then to growth-oriented funds as market conditions improve [22] - It suggests rotating between fund managers based on performance, favoring those who have shown better results in the current market environment [23] - The overall message is to maintain a calm approach to investing, making small adjustments to align with the current market sentiment while managing risk effectively [25]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current bullish sentiment in the market and the anxiety among investors regarding their equity positions [4][5]. - It emphasizes that while it is normal to feel anxious in a rapidly rising market, there is no need for excessive worry, as beating the index is challenging for even professional investors [6][8]. - The article provides data showing that from 2010 to now, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has increased by 61.38%, while actively managed equity funds have returned 102.04%, indicating only a slight annual excess return of 1.49% over 16 years [6][8]. Group 2 - The article suggests that investors should gradually increase their risk appetite rather than making drastic changes to their portfolios, which could lead to unexpected risks [11][14]. - It recommends optimizing bond holdings by transitioning from pure bond funds to those with some convertible bonds or equity exposure, depending on the current holdings [15]. - The article also discusses optimizing dividend holdings by upgrading traditional dividend index funds to those with quality or cash flow strategies, which have shown better performance in the current market [18][19]. Group 3 - For broad index optimization, the article advises investors holding the Shanghai Index or the CSI 300 to consider switching to the more balanced and growth-oriented CSI A500 [23]. - It suggests that investors can enhance their portfolios by moving from smaller indices to larger ones, such as upgrading from the ChiNext Index to the ChiNext Composite Index [23]. - The article highlights the importance of making small adjustments to portfolios rather than significant overhauls to mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [24][29]. Group 4 - The article concludes by encouraging investors to maintain a calm mindset amidst market volatility and to make gradual adjustments to their portfolios to align with the current market sentiment [28][29]. - It emphasizes that maintaining the original investment style while making minor tweaks can help manage risk effectively [29].

Core Viewpoint - The market for free cash flow index funds is experiencing a significant surge in new fund establishments, with a total of 41 funds launched since July, bringing the total number of such funds to 73 as of August 8 [1][2]. Fund Establishment Trends - As of August 8, 2023, 41 new free cash flow index funds have been established since July, marking the highest establishment peak since their inception [1][2]. - The first free cash flow index fund was established in February 2023, with a smaller peak of 19 funds in April. The number of new funds decreased in May and June but surged to 32 in July [2]. - The variety of indices tracked by these funds has also expanded, now including six different indices, such as the CSI 500 Free Cash Flow Index [2]. Fund Size and Performance - Among the 73 free cash flow index funds, 12 have raised over 1 billion yuan, with seven of these being established since July. Notable funds include the Huabao CSI 300 Free Cash Flow ETF with 1.689 billion yuan and the Jiashi National Index Free Cash Flow ETF with 1.436 billion yuan [3]. - The average return of free cash flow index funds that have been operating for over three months is approximately 4.05%, with several funds exceeding 10% returns [5]. Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy - The free cash flow index emphasizes the cash flow attributes of constituent stocks, focusing on companies that generate substantial cash flow after necessary expenses, thus avoiding high-leverage financial risks [4]. - Over 35 public funds have already entered the free cash flow index fund space, indicating a growing trend in this investment strategy [4]. - The current inflow of funds into free cash flow ETFs has not significantly impacted the prices of underlying stocks, suggesting that there is still room for market allocation without causing excessive trading or price distortion [6][7].

Group 1: Free Cash Flow Factor and Stock Selection Effect - The concept of free cash flow (FCF) is crucial in financial analysis and valuation, representing cash available for distribution to all capital providers after necessary reinvestments [6][7] - FCF is defined as cash generated from core operations after accounting for capital expenditures and working capital needs, indicating a company's financial flexibility and strategic autonomy [6][7] - The report highlights that using FCF as a stock selection criterion shows a good monotonic return pattern, with free cash flow yield outperforming free cash flow margin in terms of grouping effectiveness [15][18] Group 2: Style Factor System and Index Fund Products - The report outlines that the most widely used style factors in overseas markets include size, value, quality, momentum, dividend, and low volatility, while domestic applications primarily focus on indices provided by China Securities Index and Shenzhen Securities Information [25][28] - The scale factor is the most commonly applied style factor in asset allocation, with a significant portion of passive equity fund products tracking scale indices, which account for over 60% of the total passive equity fund scale in China [32][34] - The report indicates that the domestic index system has evolved to include various styles, with the emergence of indices like the China Securities 2000 and A500 providing essential tools for passive fund issuance [28][32] Group 3: Composite Use of Free Cash Flow Factor - The report emphasizes that the FCF factor enhances stock selection across different market capitalizations, with better performance observed in the China Securities All Index, China Securities 800, and China Securities 2000 [3][6] - The FCF factor also shows enhancement effects in growth and value style samples, generating higher and more stable excess returns when combined with large and mid-cap stocks [3][6] - The report notes that most industries benefit from the FCF stock selection strategy, particularly in sectors like computer, retail, and household appliances, although some industries exhibit increased volatility in stock selection returns [3][6]

Group 1 - In June, the mutual fund market saw a resurgence, with 154 new funds launched, raising nearly 120 billion yuan, setting a record for the first half of the year [1] - Bond funds accounted for nearly half of the total issuance, with 34 new bond funds raising 57.93 billion yuan, representing 48.87% of the total [1] - The issuance of equity funds is expected to be a key focus for public funds in the second half of the year, as innovative products proliferate [1][2] Group 2 - A total of 677 funds were established in the first half of the year, with a total issuance of 526.77 billion yuan, showing growth compared to previous periods [2] - Active equity funds saw significant growth, with 45 new funds launched in June alone, raising close to 29 billion yuan, surpassing the previous five months [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is expected to support the development of more technology innovation indices and public fund products, encouraging long-term investment in tech companies [3] Group 3 - The first half of the year saw 124 active equity funds established, raising a total of 51.62 billion yuan, alongside 403 index funds raising 275.30 billion yuan [3] - Fund companies are likely to focus on index funds, mixed funds, and bond funds in their future strategies, as indicated by recent regulatory decisions [3] - Enhanced index products are anticipated to attract significant capital if they can deliver excess returns compared to mainstream indices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of public funds in China, particularly focusing on the introduction of floating fee rate funds and the challenges faced by actively managed equity funds in outperforming benchmarks [1][2][16]. Group 1: Floating Fee Rate Funds - The first batch of 26 floating fee rate funds was quickly approved and reached a fundraising cap of 20 billion within a short period, indicating strong market interest [1]. - The fee structure of these funds is asymmetric, where higher management fees are charged when performance exceeds benchmarks, while lower fees apply when performance lags, aiming to align the interests of fund managers and investors [2][24]. - Despite the innovative fee structure, the average management fee for actively managed equity funds remains at 1.2%, as many investors do not hold funds for more than a year, limiting the potential for higher fees [5][29]. Group 2: Performance Challenges - A significant portion of investors (41%) hold funds for less than a year, which complicates the ability of fund managers to achieve the performance needed to charge higher fees [4][5]. - In the past year, only 24% of actively managed equity funds outperformed their benchmarks by 6 percentage points, highlighting the difficulty in consistently achieving superior returns [7][11]. - Over the past three years, only 259 actively managed equity funds have exceeded benchmark returns by 6%, while 2004 funds have underperformed by 3% or more, indicating a challenging environment for fund managers [11][14]. Group 3: Regulatory Context - The introduction of floating fee rate funds is part of a regulatory push to reduce the risk of significant underperformance relative to benchmarks, rather than merely to increase management fees [16][22]. - The regulatory framework aims to strengthen the binding nature of performance benchmarks and reduce the prevalence of style drift among fund managers, ensuring that funds are more aligned with their stated objectives [21][22]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Historical Context - The market sentiment towards floating fee rate funds is cautious, as previous attempts to implement similar structures faced challenges and regulatory scrutiny [27][28]. - The article notes that while there is renewed interest in floating fee rate funds, they have not yet reached the marketing heights seen with other fund types, such as the A500 index funds [27][28].