从"边缘势力"到"关键变量" 2月23日，德国新一届联邦议院选举投票开始。图为在德国北莱茵－威斯特法伦州阿恩斯贝格，选民在 一处投票站投票。 图据新华社客户端 在12月21日举行的西班牙埃斯特雷马杜拉自治区选举中，执政党受挫，极右翼政党呼声党席位增加超过 一倍，成为组建地方政府的关键力量。 这是2025年极右翼势力在欧洲多国继续抬头的又一例证。专家认为，以欧洲为代表，极右翼在世界多地 势力上升明显，极右翼政党以"未必最大、但不可或缺"的特征，成为影响多国组阁、左右议程、倒逼主 流政党调整路线的现实力量。 极右翼抬头，是经济、民生、移民、安全等问题压力增大，民众对传统政党信任赤字累积的结果。极右 翼在"焦虑政治"中更易实现动员，推动相关国家和地区政治整体右移，持续冲击本国原有政策路线和价 值叙事。 成为关键变量 有分析指出，"未必最大、但不可或缺"正成为近年来欧洲极右翼扩张的典型特征，即极右翼政党不一定 要独立执政，但也能通过在预算案、移民、治安、教育文化等议题上抬高要价，让主流政党作出一定妥 协并在政策上被动右移。 这一趋势今年在德国有所显现。在2月份的德国联邦议院选举中，极右翼政党德国选择党以创纪录的得 票 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent provocative remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanna Takashi regarding Taiwan have sparked anger among the Chinese public and dissatisfaction among many Japanese citizens, leading to calls for her to retract her statements and apologize to China [1][2]. Group 1: Political Context - The Taiwan issue is considered an internal matter for China, and any military intervention by Japan would complicate the situation and increase military tensions in East Asia, potentially leading to a full-scale war between Japan and China [2]. - Takashi's comments contradict Japan's longstanding diplomatic stance and have resulted in significant diplomatic, economic, and cultural losses for Japan, as well as a loss of trust from the Chinese government and people [2][3]. Group 2: Motivations Behind Takashi's Remarks - Takashi's crossing of diplomatic lines is attributed to both personal recklessness and political calculations, as her government is politically weak and relies on extreme right-wing nationalists for support [3]. - The remarks may be an attempt to divert public attention from her government's failures, particularly in light of Japan's current economic challenges, including stock price, national debt, and currency depreciation [3]. Group 3: Public Perception and Reaction - There is a division in Japanese public opinion, with a significant portion of the population remaining passive and waiting to see which side becomes the majority before forming an opinion [5]. - The criticism from China is seen as measured and focused solely on Takashi's comments, rather than a broader anti-Japanese sentiment, countering claims that China is inciting anti-Japanese feelings [5]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Implications - The younger generation in Japan lacks knowledge of the country's historical actions, particularly regarding its wartime conduct, which has allowed historical revisionism to flourish [6][7]. - The future of Japan is seen as dependent on its ability to reconcile with its past and foster friendly relations with neighboring countries, although there is skepticism about this possibility [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has issued travel and study warnings for its citizens regarding Japan, citing safety concerns due to rising incidents of discrimination and violence against Chinese nationals in Japan, particularly following the rise of right-wing political sentiments under Prime Minister Kishi [1][2][3]. Group 1: Safety Concerns - The warnings are a response to increasing hostility towards Chinese citizens in Japan, with reports of violent incidents against Chinese tourists raising safety concerns [2]. - The rise of right-wing sentiments in Japan, particularly under Kishi's administration, has led to a societal atmosphere where discrimination against foreigners is becoming more prevalent [2][3]. Group 2: Policy Changes and Economic Impact - Kishi's government is considering raising visa fees for foreign tourists, which currently stand at approximately 3,000 yen, significantly lower than those in the US and UK [3]. - New regulations are expected to impose stricter scrutiny on foreign workers, students, and investors, complicating their ability to live and work in Japan [3]. - The introduction of a "dual pricing system" for tourist attractions starting in 2025 may lead to increased costs for foreign visitors, alongside ongoing inflation affecting travel expenses [3]. Group 3: Diplomatic Relations - The Japanese government has expressed discontent with China's travel warnings, indicating the economic importance of Chinese tourists to Japan [4]. - For improved bilateral relations, Japan is urged to reflect on its historical and political actions that have contributed to current tensions and to take steps to foster a more welcoming environment for Chinese visitors [4].

Group 1: Election Overview - The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan will elect a new party president on October 4, with the winner likely becoming the next Prime Minister [1] - The voting by party members and supporters concluded on October 3, and the election has seen a three-way competition among candidates: Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi, and former Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi [1][2] - Yoshihide Suga has gained momentum recently, surpassing Takaichi in support among lawmakers, leveraging his extensive political experience and stable image [1] Group 2: Candidate Controversies - Koizumi's campaign faced backlash for allegedly mobilizing supporters to post favorable comments online, leading to a public apology [2] - Takaichi has been criticized for her remarks about foreign tourists in Nara Park, which were denied by park officials, potentially impacting her support [2] Group 3: Policy Positions - The three leading candidates focus on domestic economic and social issues while avoiding sensitive topics [3] - All candidates support strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance but differ in their approaches to China and defense spending [3] - Yoshihide Suga advocates for achieving a defense spending target of 2% of GDP by the fiscal year 2027, while Koizumi emphasizes a steady approach within that framework, and Takaichi calls for enhanced military capabilities [3] Group 4: Public Perception - Japanese media generally view the candidates' policy proposals as lacking innovation and overlapping with existing policies, leading to a dull political discourse [4] - Public sentiment towards the election is largely negative, with low turnout at campaign events and dissatisfaction with candidates' focus on external threats rather than domestic issues [4] - Takaichi's comments have raised concerns about xenophobia in Japan, with experts warning that such rhetoric could exacerbate discrimination against foreigners [4][5]

Core Points - The "War Crimes History Exhibition" in Yokohama, Japan, aims to reveal the various war crimes committed by the Japanese military during World War II and serves as a warning against the repetition of history [1][3] - The exhibition, first held in 2016, is organized by Japanese civilians and emphasizes the importance of acknowledging Japan's history as an aggressor to prevent the glorification of war [3] - The materials used in the exhibition are produced by experts, historians, and civic groups, covering topics such as the Nanjing Massacre, Unit 731, and the comfort women issue [3] - There is a notable absence of discussions about Japan's history as an aggressor in Japanese history textbooks, which has led to concerns about historical revisionism [3][4] - The current rise of xenophobia in Japan is closely linked to the denial and distortion of colonial rule and aggressor history [3] - The exhibition has faced external disturbances, including harassment of staff members, highlighting the societal challenges in discussing historical and political topics in Japan [4] Group 1 - The "War Crimes History Exhibition" serves as a reminder of Japan's wartime actions and the need to confront historical truths [1][3] - The exhibition's materials are created by a collaborative effort of scholars and civic organizations, focusing on significant historical events [3] - Concerns about historical revisionism and the lack of acknowledgment in educational materials are prevalent among organizers [3][4] Group 2 - The exhibition is seen as a crucial platform for fostering discussions about Japan's past, despite societal pressures against such topics [4] - The connection between rising xenophobia and historical denialism is emphasized, indicating broader societal implications [3] - The organizers express hope for a more open environment for discussing Japan's history to facilitate change [4]

Group 1 - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito is likely to struggle to secure the 50 seats needed for a majority in the Japanese Senate elections, marking a potential unprecedented situation where the coalition becomes a minority in both houses for the first time since World War II [1][4][5] - The LDP and Komeito currently hold 141 seats in the Senate, with 75 non-contested seats and 66 contested seats in this election, needing to win at least 50 seats to maintain a majority [4][5] - The election is seen as a critical test for Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, who has faced significant challenges following previous electoral defeats [1][6] Group 2 - Exit polls indicate that the LDP and Komeito coalition may not secure the necessary seats, while the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, is projected to gain seats [5][6] - The rise of the far-right party "Sanjin Party," which promotes a nationalist agenda, has garnered significant attention and support, reflecting a shift towards more extreme political sentiments in Japan [1][9][10] - The political landscape is shifting, with increasing public support for nationalist and exclusionary policies, as evidenced by a survey showing 79% of voters favoring stricter measures against foreigners [9][10] Group 3 - Kishida's administration faces declining approval ratings, with a recent poll showing support at 20.8%, the lowest since taking office, indicating a potential crisis of confidence in his leadership [6][7] - The political environment may lead to a reshuffling of the ruling coalition or even a change in leadership, as historical precedents suggest that poor performance in Senate elections can lead to the resignation of the Prime Minister [7][8] - Economic pressures, including rising consumer prices and external trade challenges, are contributing to the political turmoil and dissatisfaction among voters [8][10]