Core Viewpoint - The expectation of an early interest rate cut has intensified concerns about inflation, leading to an increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield [1] Group 1 - Reports indicate that Trump is considering firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which has significantly impacted the U.S. dollar [1] - Following the news, the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.44% to 4.49%, reflecting market anxiety [1] - The potential for early rate cuts is raising fears of accelerating inflation, which could result in higher borrowing costs in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs suggests that the Federal Reserve may consider an earlier interest rate cut due to the diminishing impact of tariffs and a decline in inflation [1] Group 1 - The reduction in tariffs has contributed to a more favorable economic environment, potentially influencing the Fed's decision-making process [1] - Inflation rates are showing signs of easing, which could further support the case for a rate cut [1] - The combination of these factors indicates a shift in monetary policy outlook, with implications for various sectors and investment strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has sufficient reasons to consider an early interest rate cut, contrary to discussions suggesting a delay until August for further assessment of the second quarter CPI data [1] Economic Outlook - Recent data indicates a downward risk in the domestic economic outlook, reinforcing the argument for an earlier rate cut [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Insights - Powell's unexpected shift towards "early rate cuts" after a hawkish signal just six days prior indicates potential changes in monetary policy direction[2] - The number of Fed members opposing rate cuts increased from 4 to 7, reflecting a more hawkish stance in the latest dot plot[4] - Powell's comments suggest that "early" may refer to a possible rate cut in September, with a focus on upcoming economic data[6] Group 2: Economic and Political Context - Trump's pressure on the Fed, claiming that rate cuts could save $800 billion in interest costs, raises concerns about the Fed's credibility[4] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their impact on inflation complicates the Fed's decision-making process[13] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly tensions in the Middle East, adds further uncertainty to inflation forecasts and financial stability[14] Group 3: Implications for China - The Fed's policy shift is expected to have limited direct impact on China, as the PBOC's rate decisions depend more on internal financial stability[18] - The RMB has shown increased elasticity, allowing for greater autonomy in monetary policy despite external influences[18] - China's focus remains on optimizing credit structure and managing systemic financial risks, rather than simply following the Fed's lead[18]

美元指数DXY短线下挫25点，美联储主席鲍威尔提及提前降息的可能性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that interest rate cuts could occur earlier if the labor market shows signs of weakness [1] Group 1 - Powell's comments suggest a potential shift in monetary policy depending on labor market conditions [1] - The possibility of early rate cuts reflects the Fed's responsiveness to economic indicators [1] - The labor market's performance is a critical factor influencing the Fed's decision-making process [1]

金十数据6月24日讯，美联储主席鲍威尔：通胀可能不会如预期那样强劲。如果情况如此，意味着可能 会提前降息。 鲍威尔：通胀不如预期强劲，则可能提前降息 ...

智通财经6月24日电，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，如果劳动力市场疲软，通胀率下降，也可以提前降息。 ...