提高消费率
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2026年国补下达首批625亿元,外媒分析该如何提高消费
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-12-31 00:52
【环球网财经综合报道】日前,国家发改委、财政部印发《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的 通知》,同时下达首批625亿元资金支持消费品以旧换新。 值得关注的是,2026年国补对象新增智能眼镜、智能家居等智能产品,剔除家装、电动自行车两大类。同时,家电国 补范围缩小,限定为冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等6类产品,一级能效家电补贴比例从此前20%降至 15%,每件家电补贴最高额度从2000元降至1500元。 《金融时报》近日发文称,影响消费的因素包括内生因素如商品质量和消费者偏好,以及外生因素如收入、金融约 束、风险偏好和价格。展望2026年,"十五五"规划提出要提高居民消费率,但需考虑消费的复杂性和时代背景。 文章还提出,一方面要鼓励富裕人群多花钱少储蓄,另外一方面也要加大消费贷款投放,鼓励收入较低群体从生命周 期(如结婚、生育等大额消费)、职业周期(如预期未来收入不断提高增加现实消费)考虑贷款消费。针对收入波动 群体,如暂时遇到流动性约束利用贷款平滑消费。 同时文章还认为,提高消费的关键在于优化分配,扩大中等收入群体,强化社会保障,通过完善信贷政策降低债务和 信贷约束,特别是通过有 ...
“十五五”规划系列报告(八):提高消费率:“口径”的意义
Minsheng Securities· 2025-11-08 08:20
Group 1: Importance of Improving Consumption Statistics - Improving consumption statistics is crucial for accurately observing the resident consumption rate and guiding policy direction[1] - Recent efforts have been made to enhance consumption statistics, including the release of service retail data in August 2023[1] - The government has initiated actions to improve comprehensive consumption statistics, aiming for a more targeted approach in stimulating consumption[1] Group 2: Comparison with Other Economies - Comparing consumption statistics between China and the U.S. reveals significant differences, with U.S. residents' per capita consumption approximately ten times that of China[1] - The U.S. enjoys a price advantage in consumer price index (CPI) compared to China's overall price levels, affecting consumption rates[2] - Service consumption in China is a major bottleneck, with only 46.1% of consumption expenditure allocated to services compared to 68.5% in the U.S.[20] Group 3: Statistical Methodology Challenges - China's statistical methods for financial services and insurance are inadequate, leading to underreported service consumption[22] - The narrow scope of service consumption statistics in China fails to capture the full value of public service subsidies, affecting data comparability[25] - The transition from depreciation cost method to market-based virtual rent method for housing services in 2023 aims to better reflect actual consumption value[26] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - There are risks associated with discrepancies between service consumption data and actual figures, potentially affecting policy effectiveness[31] - The progress of improving consumption statistics may not align with expectations, complicating efforts to enhance consumption rates[31] - Achieving higher consumption rates requires not only improved statistics but also policies that enhance consumer willingness and capacity[31]