陆挺，图片来源：每经记者赵景致摄 与以往对降息的预期来看，今年下半年市场有关"降息"的呼声小了不少。 "市场对年底降息的期待其实比较低。"陆挺表示，美国目前在降息，有声音认为我国的利率水平还要再往下调，但实际上 中国十年期国债利率目前也仅1.8%，中国在国际上已经差不多是利率水平最低的国家之一，再降低利率对实体经济的拉动 非常有限。 11月12日，"2025年野村中国投资年会"在深圳举办。在媒体交流会上，野村中国首席经济学家陆挺就中国宏观经济接受了 《每日经济新闻》记者在内的媒体采访。今年三月份，我国政府工作报告提出适度宽松的货币政策，不过与往年相比，今 年我国政策利率只下调了一次共计0.1个百分点。陆挺认为，中国目前的利率水平已经足够低，再调低利率对实体经济的拉 动非常有限。 此外，陆挺认为，在"十四五"期间，房地产作为我国内需主体受到影响后，"十五五"期间"消费"具有很高的战略地位，但 如何促消费还需要更多的探讨。"国家促消费比如国补政策，我估计明年还会有，但在我看来，我国的社保体系改革是必不 可少的，其中最主要的问题就是养老人群，尤其是目前农村老人收入的提高。"陆挺表示。 今年9月份，国家发展改革委已会 ...

Summary of Conference Call on China's Social Welfare Reform Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the social welfare reform in China as part of the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on addressing economic challenges such as debt, population aging, and deflation [1][6][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Importance of Social Welfare Reform**: Social welfare reform is crucial for breaking deflation and achieving a balanced economic development. It is seen as a key measure to facilitate a unified market cycle [1][10]. 2. **Progress in Addressing "3D" Challenges**: China has made progress in dealing with debt, demographic changes, and deflation over the past five years, with government support helping to mitigate risks associated with local government debt [1][6]. 3. **Economic Rebalancing**: The government aims to achieve economic rebalancing through targeted policies that can enhance total factor productivity, despite the short-term pain associated with reforms [1][10]. 4. **Rural vs. Urban Disparities**: There is a significant gap in social security coverage and benefits between urban and rural populations, necessitating reforms to enhance rural residents' welfare [2][11]. 5. **Long-term Benefits of Reform**: While short-term adjustments may lead to increased costs for households and businesses, the long-term benefits include improved consumption, reduced defensive savings, and enhanced economic resilience [2][12][27]. 6. **Fiscal Pressure from Aging Population**: The aging population is expected to increase fiscal pressure on the social security system, with projections indicating that fiscal transfers will need to rise from approximately 2% of GDP to over 3% [12][27]. 7. **Investment vs. Social Spending**: There is a need to shift resources from low-return investments to support social welfare, which requires a departure from the current investment-heavy growth model [12][13]. 8. **High Savings Rate**: China's high household savings rate, which has remained around 44% of GDP, reflects structural imbalances in the economy and underscores the need for reforms to stimulate consumption [16][22]. 9. **Social Security System Overview**: The current social security system is characterized by a dual-track structure, with urban workers receiving significantly higher benefits compared to rural residents [33][41]. 10. **Challenges in Implementation**: The complexity of the social security system, including high contribution rates and low perceived benefits, discourages participation, particularly among low-income groups [56][57]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Potential for Future Reforms**: The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session is expected to discuss key points of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which may provide a critical window for implementing more substantial reforms [10][12]. - **International Comparisons**: The report highlights that China's social security spending as a percentage of GDP is lower than that of many OECD countries, indicating room for improvement in social welfare provisions [41][42]. - **Impact of Social Security on Consumption**: Increased social security spending is correlated with higher consumption levels, suggesting that enhancing the social safety net could stimulate economic growth [30][31]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding China's social welfare reform and its implications for the economy.

Core Viewpoint - The expected GDP growth rate for the second quarter is around 4.8%, influenced by factors such as export fluctuations, the diminishing impact of trade-in policies on consumption, and ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector [1][2]. Economic Analysis - The economic situation in China is projected to remain relatively stable in the short term, primarily due to a backlog of export orders and the positive effects of trade-in policies on retail [2]. - Export growth is expected to maintain a high level in May and June, potentially close to April's 8% growth rate, but challenges may arise in the second half of the year [2]. - The increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by the U.S. has significantly impacted exports, particularly with a 54% tariff on small packages, which may lead to a substantial decline in exports after the initial surge [3]. - The positive effects of trade-in policies for durable goods are expected to wane, with potential negative impacts on consumer demand in the latter half of the year [3][4]. - The real estate sector is experiencing a prolonged downturn, with a 10% annual decline and a 22% drop in new housing starts, complicating efforts to stabilize domestic demand [4]. Policy Recommendations - Maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate is crucial for economic stability, especially given the current challenges in the real estate market and capital outflow concerns [5][6]. - Accelerating fiscal spending and exploring additional stimulus measures are necessary to stabilize the economy in the second half of the year [6]. - The stability of the real estate market is critical, requiring measures such as interest rate cuts and debt resolution for developers to prevent further economic decline [7]. - Structural reforms in the social security system are needed to enhance consumer spending, particularly by increasing pension levels for rural elderly populations [8]. - Fiscal reform is essential to improve local government finances and create independent revenue sources beyond real estate, which is vital for enhancing the business environment [9].