2021-2022：各国陆续推出经济刺激政策，推动通胀，原油价格高企，2021年板块盈利继续承压。2022年油价继续上行，然而得益于提价落地以及企业自 身经营的努力，整理利润率的波动开始收窄，部分公司利润率启动反转。 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 最近两个油价单边上行的时期为2016Q2-2018Q3，以及2020Q3-2022Q3。以第二个周期 来看： 2020：全球疫情导致需求大幅减少，石油生产国价格战导致的供给大幅增多，油价处于历史底部，但2020年板块盈利未出现集体性上涨，其中一个原因为大 部分公司执行新收入准则，将运输、报关、港杂费计入成本（对出口企业影响较大，幅度约2-3pct）。同时，人民币升值也对毛利率造成负面影响。 风险提示： 国际贸易环境变动、原材料 ...

日本股市全线反攻。 2月18日，在亚洲多个主要市场因假期休市的背景下，日本市场成为焦点，日本股市开盘后，各大指数 全线大涨，日经225指数狂飙超700点。有分析指出，日本新政府组建临近，叠加隔夜美股市场企稳，做 多资金重返日本股市。 与此同时，美国总统特朗普宣布，日本已正式且实际地推进其5500亿美元对美投资承诺下的首批项目， 三个"大项目"涉及得州油气战略、俄亥俄州发电和佐治亚州关键矿产领域。有评论指出，首批投资或将 为高市早苗3月19日访美并与特朗普会晤铺平道路。 日本股市大涨 2月18日，日本股市高开高走，截至发稿，日经225指数大涨超710点，涨幅达1.23%，强势站稳57000点 关口，终结此前的四连跌；日本东证指数大涨1.3%至3809.18点。 日股上涨带动亚太指数，MSCI太平洋指数上涨超1%，但交易量因多个地区市场休市而明显偏低。 据央视新闻最新报道，当地时间2月18日下午，日本国会众议院首相指名选举投票开始。当天上午，高 市早苗内阁集体辞职，日本国会众参两院将先后举行首相指名选举。 根据相关规定，在首相指名选举中，议员可以投出空白票。在第一轮投票中，得票过半者即可直接胜 出，如果没有候选人 ...

Group 1 - The report from Daiwa indicates that if the GDP target for 2026 is set at around 5% during the National People's Congress on March 5, it may suggest stronger economic stimulus measures are forthcoming [1] - The anticipated fiscal stimulus is expected to focus on fixed asset investment, consumption, and real estate [1] - Daiwa maintains an optimistic outlook for the Chinese stock market in the first half of 2026, with the stimulus policy season likely extending until April [1] Group 2 - The likelihood of large-scale stimulus policies remains low, but the introduction of gradual stimulus measures along with strong policy assurances could boost investment sentiment in the short term [1] - Companies such as China Resources Land and Midea are expected to benefit from these developments as part of Daiwa's preferred stocks [1] - Due to strong downstream demand driving price increase expectations, companies like Laopu Gold and Kingsoft Cloud have been added to the preferred list [1]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of increasing rural pension levels to improve the income expectations of rural workers and flexible employment personnel, which can significantly stimulate consumption due to their higher marginal propensity to consume [1][2][8] - It suggests that raising the rural pension by 50 to 100 yuan per month could gradually increase the average pension level from less than 300 yuan to 1000 yuan over several years, which aligns with the goal of boosting consumption in China's macro economy [2][8] - The article highlights that the current rural pension system covers approximately 1.8 billion elderly individuals, with a significant number of rural workers and flexible employment personnel benefiting from potential increases in pension levels [8][9] Group 2 - The article discusses the government's cautious approach to stock market management, aiming to prevent it from becoming a "mad bull" while avoiding sharp declines, which has been effective in maintaining market stability [2][4] - It notes that the government has not introduced a stimulus policy comparable to the "924" moment in 2025, primarily due to a favorable stock market performance, which serves as a lesson from past experiences [4][5] - The article anticipates that the real estate sector may experience a "924 moment" in the near future, indicating a potential policy shift to stimulate the market [4][5] Group 3 - The article mentions that the central government's financial support for rural pensions is projected to exceed that for enterprise employee pensions and civil servant pensions within two years if the monthly increase is set at 100 yuan [8][9] - It points out the disparity in local financial support for rural pensions, with some regions providing significantly higher subsidies than others, suggesting that central government intervention is necessary to ensure equitable pension increases [9] - The article argues that enhancing the rural pension system is crucial for transitioning from a middle-income to a middle-developed country, marking the next two to three years as a critical period for social security reform in China [9]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over Japan's deteriorating fiscal situation are impacting the bond market, leading to a decline in Japanese government bond prices and an increase in yields [1] Group 1: Economic Context - The potential for early elections in Japan is being discussed, which may lead to further economic stimulus policies and debt issuance [1] - Reports suggest that the Japanese government is considering holding early elections in early to mid-February [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market has reacted to these developments, evidenced by rising stock prices, a weakening yen, and increasing Japanese government bond yields [1] - Analyst Tomohisa Fujiki from Citigroup noted that if yields rise significantly, concerns regarding Japan's fiscal situation may intensify [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering an early election, potentially in February, as her approval ratings remain high since taking office in October 2022, presenting an opportunity to solidify her position [2][3]. Group 1: Election Considerations - Takaichi's coalition partner, Hirofumi Yoshimura, indicated that discussions about the election timing have entered a "new phase" [2]. - Reports suggest that the election could be held on February 8 or 15, with Yoshimura stating he would not be surprised if Takaichi decides to call for an early election [3]. - Takaichi has not confirmed any specific election date during her recent interviews, focusing instead on current economic challenges [5][4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Takaichi advocates for increased fiscal spending to stimulate Japan's economy, with a proposed budget of $783 billion, marking her first budget plan as Prime Minister [6]. - The potential early election could disrupt the approval of the budget for the current fiscal year, which ends in March, leading to the need for a temporary budget if not passed [10]. - The Japanese economy is facing challenges, including high food inflation, which is negatively impacting consumer spending [9]. Group 3: Political Landscape - The next general election was originally expected to occur by October 2028, but an early election could allow Takaichi to strengthen her position within the ruling coalition [10]. - The Liberal Democratic Party, led by Takaichi, currently holds a slim majority in the House of Representatives and is in a minority in the House of Councillors [10]. - Political analysts suggest that the announcement from the Ministry of Internal Affairs to prepare for a possible early election indicates that it is likely to happen [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai stock market has shown signs of overheating, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4085.7723 points on January 7, marking the longest streak of consecutive gains since its inception in 1993, with 14 consecutive trading days closing higher than opening prices [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index's 14-day consecutive rise has surpassed the previous record of 13 days set by Japan's Nikkei index during the economic bubble in 1988 [4]. - Despite the index rising, major component stocks like China Agricultural Bank and China National Petroleum Corporation saw declines of 0.92% and 3.60% respectively, indicating that the main drivers of the index's rise are not the large-cap stocks [4][5]. - The main buyers in the market are individual investors, often referred to as "retail investors," who are shifting their funds from real estate to the stock market due to declining deposit rates [5][7]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - There is an expectation of economic stimulus policies to be introduced during the National People's Congress in March, which is contributing to the optimistic outlook for the market [7]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated a flexible approach to monetary policy, with expectations of a significant reduction in the reserve requirement ratio as early as February [7]. - Analysts predict that the Shanghai Composite Index could rise by 5% to 10% in the first quarter of 2026, driven by monetary easing and economic stimulus [7]. Group 3: Future Projections - In an optimistic scenario, the Shanghai Composite Index could reach 4800 points by 2026, while a pessimistic outlook could see it drop to 3500 points due to potential overheating and regulatory interventions [8]. - The index is currently above its 25-day moving average by approximately 4%, indicating some room before reaching the overheating threshold of 5% [7]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has exceeded 85%, significantly above the "overbought" threshold of 70, suggesting that the market may be overheating [7].

Core Viewpoint - Former President Donald Trump criticizes the economic policies of his predecessor Joe Biden while proposing similar economic measures, including stimulus checks and calls for interest rate cuts, despite the potential inflation risks associated with such policies [1][2][3]. Economic Context - At the beginning of Biden's presidency, the U.S. faced high unemployment, but the economy was rebounding quickly from the pandemic, with a strong growth rate. In contrast, Trump's current economic environment features high living costs and elevated interest rates, yet both periods share similarities, such as a weak job market and strong overall economic growth, with a reported annualized GDP growth rate of 4.3% for the summer [1][4][10]. Proposed Economic Measures - Trump plans to implement economic stimulus measures, including $2,000 stimulus checks, to further boost the already strong economy, while also advocating for interest rate cuts, which he previously criticized as inflationary [2][11][12]. Trump's Economic Principles - Trump introduced the "Trump Rule," suggesting that the new Federal Reserve chair should lower interest rates to support stock market and economic prosperity, even if it risks increasing inflation. He claims that a strong stock market could potentially raise the annual economic growth rate by up to 20% [3][13]. Economic Logic and Risks - Basic economic principles indicate that providing $2,000 stimulus checks would increase market demand without boosting supply, likely leading to price increases. Lowering interest rates could also exacerbate inflation by increasing corporate spending, which may lead to supply-demand imbalances [6][14]. Current Inflation Situation - The ongoing inflation, which has remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, is partly attributed to Trump's proposed policies. The Consumer Price Index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in November [8][15]. Future Outlook - Trump acknowledges that his policies could lead to inflation concerns but insists that now is not the time for interest rate hikes. He emphasizes the need for the Federal Reserve to focus on achieving higher economic growth [9][16]. Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged until mid-2026 to support a weak job market, potentially leading to future rate cuts despite inflation risks [16].

Core Viewpoint - Trump's recent economic proposals increasingly resemble those of Biden's administration, despite his previous criticisms of it [1][7] Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. economy is experiencing a strong rebound from the pandemic, with a reported GDP growth rate of 4.3% year-on-year, marking the fastest growth in two years [1][7] - The current economic environment differs from Biden's early presidency, with affordability being a major issue and interest rates significantly higher [1][7] Group 2: Trump's Economic Proposals - Trump advocates for a new Federal Reserve chair to lower interest rates to maintain stock market and economic prosperity, even at the risk of stimulating inflation [2][8] - He claims that a strong stock market can boost economic growth by up to 20% annually, although historical data shows that the U.S. economy has never grown more than 9% in a single year [2][8] Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Trump's proposals, such as issuing $2,000 checks, could stimulate demand without increasing supply, potentially leading to inflation [4][9] - The Federal Reserve's reluctance to follow Trump's suggestions is primarily due to concerns about inflation, which is a symptom of an overheating economy [3][9] Group 4: Tariffs and Inflation - Trump's imposition of historic tariffs complicates the economic landscape, contributing to persistent high prices [6][11] - The consumer price index rose by 2.7% over the past 12 months, with tariffs cited as a key factor keeping inflation above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [11] Group 5: Future Outlook - There is a general expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates until mid-2026 to support a struggling job market, despite the risk of inflation [11] - Trump acknowledges that low rates and stimulus measures could pose future problems, suggesting that the Fed could raise rates if inflation becomes a concern, but believes that now is not the time for such action [11]

Core Insights - The new Japanese government has requested the Bank of Japan to postpone interest rate hikes until at least January 2026 to align with an upcoming large-scale economic stimulus plan aimed at supporting economic recovery [1] - U.S. investors are increasing their investments in Japanese stocks, driven by the strong performance of the Japanese stock market, particularly the Nikkei 225 index, which has risen approximately 30% [1][4] - Foreign investors purchased about 3.84 trillion yen (approximately 250 billion USD) worth of Japanese stocks in cash and futures during the latter half of October [4] Economic Policy - The Japanese government is coordinating monetary policy with fiscal measures to bolster economic recovery, emphasizing the importance of timing in interest rate decisions [1] - The anticipated economic stimulus plan is expected to play a crucial role in supporting the economy alongside the central bank's policies [1] Market Trends - The influx of foreign capital into the Japanese market suggests a potential shift where growth stocks may begin to replace value stocks as the primary market drivers [1] - Despite the positive outlook, there are indications that the Nikkei index has entered an overbought territory, which may lead to short-term market corrections [4]