在收入分配方面，余永定认为，中国主要是收入分配不均，中国经济系数虽有所收窄，但仍处于较高水 平。 他指出，"十五五"规划建议提出构建现代化基础设施体系，"十五五"规划19次提及基础设施一词，充分 显示中央对基础设施投资重视。不难看出，为完成中央提出的构建现代化产业体系任务，未来五年中国 投资规模将极其巨大。 余永定还指出，认为中国投资效率低下，投资越多效率越低的说法是片面的。衡量生产效率指标包括劳 动生产率、资本生产率、资本产出率、全要素生产率。中国劳动生产率不断提高，否则人均收入不可能 增长。 余永定强调，刺激消费非常必要，但必须清楚，消费受收入、收入预期、财富、永久性收入影响，这些 不变，消费增加潜力有限。 专题：2025三亚•财经国际论坛 2025三亚•财经国际论坛暨第五届三亚财富管理大会12月27日在三亚举行。中国社会科学院学部委员余 永定出席并演讲。 余永定指出，从长期看，消费不是也不可能是经济增长动力。生产扩大取决于剩余价值向追加资本转 化，即取决于资本扩大，资本扩大按定义就是投资。 余永定指出，从长期看，消费不是也不可能是经济增长动力。生产扩大取决于剩余价值向追加资本转 化，即取决于资本扩大，资 ...

Core Insights - In early 2023, China's residents experienced a surge in savings, with new deposits reaching 9.9 trillion yuan in the first quarter, averaging 3.3 trillion yuan per month [1] - Despite the apparent increase in savings, a significant portion of the population struggles to accumulate substantial wealth, with only 0.1% of residents having savings exceeding 1 million yuan [3][5] - The average savings per person in China is approximately 80,000 yuan, but a large percentage of families have savings below this average, highlighting the disparity in wealth distribution [5][10] Group 1: Savings Trends - The surge in savings is attributed to public concerns over future income and employment, as well as high risks in domestic investment markets, leading many to shift funds to safer bank deposits [1] - Only 0.37% of residents have savings over 500,000 yuan, and the number of families with over 1 million yuan in savings is around 140,000 to 150,000 [3] - The average savings for a three-person household is only 240,000 yuan, indicating that many families find it challenging to save even this amount [5] Group 2: Economic Pressures - High living costs and slow income growth are significant barriers to saving, with most residents earning between 3,000 and 6,000 yuan per month [7] - Rising housing prices consume a large portion of household savings, with the cost of a 100 square meter apartment in major cities often exceeding 1.5 to 2 million yuan [7] - Increasing debt burdens, including mortgages and consumer loans, further diminish families' ability to save [9] Group 3: Wealth Disparity - The data from China Merchants Bank shows that 97.75% of its ordinary customers have an average asset of only 12,500 yuan, while high-net-worth clients are a small fraction of the total [5] - The stark contrast in asset distribution emphasizes the limited number of families capable of saving significant amounts, reinforcing the notion that wealth accumulation remains a distant goal for many [10]

Core Insights - China's consumption growth is significantly lagging behind its large population and economic growth, raising questions about the underlying reasons for this consumption shortfall [1][2][4] Group 1: Current State of Consumption in China - The definition and measurement of consumption shortfall are established, with China's resident consumption rate at 37.2% in 2022, significantly lower than the global average of 53.8% [2][3] - The final consumption rate for China in 2023 is reported at 55.64%, which is still below the approximately 80% seen in developed countries [3] - A notable slowdown in consumption growth is observed, with a projected 3.5% increase in retail sales for 2024, contrasting sharply with historical growth rates that often exceeded 8% [2][4] Group 2: Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Consumption Shortfall - Low consumption propensity is identified as a core issue, with China's consumption propensity at 62% in 2022, compared to an average of 92.3% across 38 countries [6][8] - High housing prices contribute to consumer debt, with urban residents' real estate debt reaching 137.9% of household income, limiting their consumption capacity [9] - Income inequality is highlighted, with the top income group accounting for 46% of total income, leading to lower overall consumption rates [10] - An inadequate social security system is noted as a fundamental cause of low consumption, with high contribution rates and limited coverage increasing financial burdens on households [11] - Traditional consumption culture emphasizes saving over spending, which continues to influence consumer behavior [12] Group 3: Consumption Differences Across Demographics and Regions - Significant consumption behavior differences exist among income groups, with middle-income households contributing nearly 50% of total consumption [13] - Generational differences in consumption attitudes are emerging, particularly among the Z generation, who exhibit distinct purchasing behaviors [17][18] - Regional consumption disparities are noted, with consumption in central regions expanding while eastern and western regions show a trend towards balance [19] Group 4: International Comparisons and Lessons - China's service consumption accounts for approximately 46% of total spending, lower than that of the US (68.5%) and Japan (57.7%), indicating room for structural improvement [20][21] - Successful international experiences in enhancing consumption rates suggest that comprehensive policies are needed to boost service consumption and overall consumer confidence [22] Group 5: Future Consumption Trends - Predictions indicate that by 2030, service consumption levels in China could exceed 20,000 yuan, positioning it as a key growth driver [25][27] - The expansion of the middle-income group, projected to surpass 50% of the population by 2030, is expected to significantly enhance consumption potential [27]