Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The central bank's supportive attitude towards liquidity will be maintained, and the loose state will effectively support the bond yield to fluctuate at the bottom of the box. The report maintains the judgment that the top of the 10-year Treasury bond yield this year is 1.85% [1][17] - The long - end of US bonds fluctuates between 4 - 4.5%, the short - end is easy to decline but difficult to rise, and the report continues to be bullish on gold [2] - The US economy is still in an expansion state, but actual demand may be insufficient, and economic growth is slowing down. The labor market has not fundamentally improved, and the Fed's理事鲍曼 calls for a firm interest rate cut and reform of the monetary policy implementation mechanism [21][24][27] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. One - week Views - **Domestic Bond Market**: This week (2025.9.22 - 2025.9.26), the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose 0.4bp from 1.795% last Friday to 1.799%. The central bank's 14 - day reverse repurchase operation was discontinuous, but the open - market operation maintained a net investment, and the MLF was over - renewed by 300 billion yuan, indicating support for liquidity [1][12][17] - **Overseas Market**: The Fed's interest rate cut "boot landed" last week, the yield curve steepened rapidly. The long - end has high volatility and strong gaming attributes, while the short - end has relatively strong supply and demand. The US second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate reached 3.8%, but the manufacturing and service PMI in September decreased. The number of initial jobless claims continued to decline, but the labor market has not fundamentally improved. Fed理事鲍曼 called for an interest rate cut and reform of the monetary policy implementation mechanism [2][21][24] 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - The open - market operations from 2025/09/22 - 2025/09/26 are detailed, with a total net investment of 940.6 billion yuan. The money - market interest rate and the issuance volume of interest - rate bonds in two weeks are also analyzed [32] 2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices showed mixed trends. The prices of coking coal and thermal coal, inter - bank certificate of deposit interest rates, balance - treasure yields, vegetable price indices, commodity price indices, and the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil are presented. The performance of various overseas indices and the yield changes of US bonds are also shown [59][60][72] 3. One - week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 78 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 196.051 billion yuan, a net financing of 122.461 billion yuan. The main investment directions are comprehensive, strategic development, and urban - rural infrastructure construction. 12 provinces and cities issued local government bonds, and 2 provinces issued special refinancing special bonds for replacing existing hidden debts [79][84][85] 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The stock of local government bonds this week was 53.44 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 47.4454 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.89%. The top three provinces with active trading are Guangdong, Shandong, and Hunan, and the top three active trading maturities are 30Y, 10Y, and 15Y [94] 3.3 This Month's Local Government Bond Issuance Plan - The issuance plans of local government bonds in some provinces and regions from 2025/9/29 to 2025/10/3 are presented [98] 4. One - week Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 418 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance of 435.522 billion yuan, a total repayment of 358.923 billion yuan, and a net financing of 76.599 billion yuan, an increase of 9.68 billion yuan compared with last week. Among them, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 23.029 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 99.627 billion yuan [99][100] 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types this week are provided, with different changes in the interest rates of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds [111] 4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The trading volume of each type of credit bond this week is detailed, with a total trading volume of 633.982 billion yuan [114] 4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of various bonds such as 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y national development bonds, and the yields of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds all showed certain changes this week [116][118][119][120] 4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds all widened this week [124][126][131] 4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different trends, with the grade spreads of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds generally narrowing [136][140][143] 4.7 Trading Activity - No specific content provided 4.8 Subject Rating Changes - No specific content provided

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for local governments to scientifically analyze the economic development environment and growth conditions during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period to establish reasonable economic growth targets and new growth drivers [1][2][3] - The economic growth in China is expected to enter a new phase of stable growth, with domestic demand becoming the core driving force for economic growth, as consumption's contribution to GDP has increased from 50% at the end of the "11th Five-Year Plan" to 57% at the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][4] - The importance of consumer purchasing power and market demand is highlighted, suggesting that local governments should focus on opportunities from the consumption side to drive economic growth [1][13] Group 2 - The article discusses the shift in growth models from scale expansion to quality improvement, emphasizing the need for innovation-driven and endogenous growth in the face of rising external uncertainties [2][4] - It is noted that the service sector has become a core driver of economic growth, with its contribution to GDP increasing from approximately 45% during the "11th Five-Year Plan" to 60% currently, while the industrial sector's contribution has decreased [7][11] - The need for local governments to adjust their policies and resources to focus on sectors with potential and flexibility is emphasized, particularly in the context of the service industry's rapid growth compared to industrial growth [10][12] Group 3 - The article suggests that local governments should adopt a pragmatic approach in setting economic growth targets, balancing between not being overly ambitious and not being pessimistic [4][5] - It highlights the necessity of identifying new growth points in industries and enhancing consumer demand to create a virtuous cycle of supply and demand [5][13] - The importance of enhancing the vitality and development level of business entities is stressed, as they directly influence the quality and efficiency of local economic operations [18][19] Group 4 - The article points out the need for local governments to focus on the innovation capabilities of enterprises, as the vitality and development level of business entities are crucial for economic growth [18][20] - It emphasizes the dual focus on technological innovation and business model innovation to enhance enterprise efficiency and competitiveness [20][21] - The article also discusses the importance of supporting both traditional and emerging enterprises in their innovation efforts to achieve high-quality development [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for local governments in China to scientifically analyze the economic development environment and growth conditions during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on new industrial growth points, expanding consumption, and improving enterprise efficiency to ensure sustainable economic growth [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Development Goals - The current economic environment in China is transitioning to a new phase of stable growth, necessitating a careful setting of growth targets during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][3]. - The shift from investment-driven growth to innovation-driven and endogenous growth requires local governments to adopt a more nuanced approach to economic goal setting [2][4]. - The contribution of consumption to GDP has increased from 50% at the end of the "11th Five-Year Plan" to 57% at the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," highlighting the importance of domestic demand [3][4]. Group 2: Industrial Structure and Trends - The service sector has become the core driver of economic growth, with its contribution to GDP rising to 56.7% by the end of 2024, while the industrial sector's contribution has decreased [7][10]. - The article suggests that local governments should focus on the service industry, especially in lower-tier cities, to enhance employment and living standards [8][10]. - The industrial structure is undergoing significant changes, with traditional industries declining and high-end manufacturing rising, necessitating targeted policies to support these transitions [9][10]. Group 3: Consumption and Demand - The article stresses the importance of consumer purchasing power and market demand as fundamental drivers of economic growth, advocating for a focus on consumption to create a new supply-demand cycle [13][14]. - Service consumption is highlighted as having a more direct impact on local economies compared to goods consumption, which often benefits external regions [15][16]. - The growth of service consumption is projected to continue, with a 6.2% increase in national service retail sales in 2024, outpacing goods retail sales [15][16]. Group 4: Innovation and Enterprise Development - The vitality and development level of enterprises are crucial for the quality and efficiency of local economic operations, with a call for systematic policies to enhance enterprise efficiency and innovation potential [18][19]. - The article advocates for a dual focus on both traditional and emerging enterprises to foster innovation and improve overall economic performance [20][21]. - Local governments are encouraged to create a supportive environment for enterprises, emphasizing the importance of technological and model innovation to drive economic growth [19][21].