新房景气度下行趋缓，二手房景气度底部企稳，成交量均出现小幅回落。政策方面，经济工作会议再提"去库存"，重 点是"因城施策"，一线城市重心是"优供给"，三四线城市侧重于"控增量"、"去库存"。 风险提示 房价下行幅度和速度超预期，房企债务风险超预期，宏观经济超预期下行。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济点评 新房方面，本周(12.6-12.12)景气度下行趋缓，新房销售面积小幅回落，47 城新房成交量环比-9.8%，同比-44.9%， 主要受季节性因素影响，降幅较上周走阔。 图表1：新房成交面积保持稳定 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1W 2W 3W 4W 5W 6W 7W 8W 9W 10W 11W 12W 13W 14W 15W 16W 17W 18W 19W 20W 21W 22W 23W 24W 25W 26W 27W 28W 29W 30W 31W 32W 33W 34W 35W 36W 37W 38W 39W 40W 41W 42W 43W 44W 45W 46W 47W 48W 49W 50W 51W 52W 47城新 ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance has released a report on the implementation of China's fiscal policy for the first half of 2025, emphasizing the need to prevent and mitigate risks in key areas [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Measures - The Ministry will continue to implement a comprehensive debt management policy, focusing on the steady advancement of hidden debt replacement while addressing new hidden debt behaviors promptly and holding accountable those responsible [1] - There will be a strengthened analysis and monitoring of fiscal operations, with enhanced cash flow management and emergency response measures [1] Group 2: Support for Local Governments - The Ministry aims to solidify the "three guarantees" bottom line to ensure stable operations of local finances [1] - Relevant policy tools will be utilized to assist in the reform and transformation of financing platforms, risk management of small financial institutions, and the acquisition of existing residential properties for affordable housing [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent policy changes in various regions of China, including Hangzhou, have expanded the scope of housing provident fund withdrawals to include the purchase of allocated affordable housing, aiming to support residents in acquiring homes and reducing financial burdens [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Multiple provinces and cities, such as Anhui, Gansu, and Guangzhou, have introduced new policies allowing the use of housing provident funds for purchasing affordable housing [2][3]. - The down payment ratio for applying for provident fund loans for affordable housing has been reduced to 15% in several cities, including Guilin and Xiamen, down from the previous 20% [2][3]. Group 2: Affordable Housing Supply - The construction of affordable housing is accelerating, with cities like Zhengzhou planning to build 1,300 units and Harbin aiming for 2,000 units this year [4]. - Initial selection phases for affordable housing projects have begun in cities like Qingdao and Guangzhou, with prices set significantly lower than comparable second-hand homes [5]. Group 3: Challenges in Implementation - The acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing remains a key strategy, but challenges include high acquisition costs and mismatches in supply and demand [6][7]. - The complexity of the acquisition process, including project selection and financing, has resulted in slow progress in actual project implementation [6][7].