Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guotai Junan Securities [6][10] Core Insights - Guotai Junan Securities reported a revenue of 458.92 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 220.74 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing year-on-year increases of 12.6% and 101.6% respectively [1][6] - The integration with Haitong Securities has led to significant synergies, enhancing the company's competitive position in the industry [2][3] - The company achieved a non-GAAP net profit of 90.25 billion yuan in Q3, with a total non-GAAP net profit of 163.04 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting an 80.46% year-on-year growth [1][3] Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2025, the net income from brokerage, investment banking, and asset management was 108.14 billion yuan, 26.29 billion yuan, and 42.73 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 142.8%, 46.2%, and 49.3% [2] - The company's interest income and investment income for the first three quarters were 52.08 billion yuan and 209.36 billion yuan, showing increases of 232.3% and 91.0% year-on-year [3] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company ranks fourth in the industry for IPO financing with 10 billion yuan completed in the first three quarters [2] - The report projects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 298.22 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 129.0% [3][10] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to be 0.99 times based on the closing price on October 31 [3][10]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 31 日 国泰海通（601211.SH） 总资产破 2 万亿，收费类业务稳健，用表常态化在途 总量研究/非银行金融 25Q3 公司实现营业收入 459 亿，同比+102%；扣非净利润 163 亿，同比+80%。 年化后 ROE 为 10.8%，同比+2.7pct；经营杠杆为 4.77 倍、延续提升态势。合 并后业务调整节奏超过预期。 注： 24Q3 数据为原国泰君安财务数据、故点评中同比增速不具可比性。 基础数据 ❑ 总体概览：总资产破 2 万亿，收费类业务稳健，用表常态化在途。25Q3 公 司实现营业收入 459 亿，同比+102%；归母净利润 221 亿，同比+132%；扣 非净利润 163 亿，同比+80%。单三季度看，25Q3 营业收入 220 亿，同比 +136%，环比+82%；归母净利润 63 亿，同比+41%，环比+81%；扣非净利 润 90 亿，同比+102%，环比+126%。截至 25Q3，总资产突破 2 万亿，环比 +11%；归母净资产 3241 亿，环比+1%。年化后 ROE 为 10.8%，同比+2.7pct； 经营杠杆为 4.7 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [7]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 17.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.0% [1][7]. - The revenue structure shows significant growth in fee-based income, while proprietary trading income rebounded quarter-on-quarter but showed mixed performance in year-on-year comparisons [1][2]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 69.5 billion yuan, 74.9 billion yuan, and 80.7 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 23.1 billion yuan, 25.0 billion yuan, and 27.1 billion yuan for the same years [7][9]. Revenue Breakdown - **Proprietary Trading**: In Q1 2025, proprietary trading income was 8.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 62% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 89.3% [2]. - **Brokerage Business**: The brokerage business net income grew by 36.2% year-on-year, with total transaction volume in the stock market reaching 100 trillion yuan, a 68% increase year-on-year [3]. - **Asset Management**: Asset management income increased by 8.7% year-on-year, with a stable contribution from Huaxia Fund, which reported a total AUM of 1.91 trillion yuan [4]. - **Investment Banking**: Investment banking revenue saw a significant year-on-year increase of 212% in refinancing, although IPO underwriting revenue turned negative [4][6]. - **Credit Business**: The credit business faced challenges with net interest income turning negative due to decreased interest income and increased interest expenses [6]. Financial Metrics - The company maintained a high return on equity (ROE) of 9.5% annualized, with a net profit margin of 36.9%, both reflecting strong financial performance [7]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16, 15, and 14 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [7]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 17.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.0% [1][7]. - The revenue structure shows significant growth in fee-based income, while proprietary trading income rebounded quarter-on-quarter but showed mixed performance in year-on-year comparisons [1][2]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 69.5 billion yuan, 74.9 billion yuan, and 80.7 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 23.1 billion yuan, 25.0 billion yuan, and 27.1 billion yuan for the same years [7][9]. Revenue Breakdown - **Proprietary Trading**: In Q1 2025, proprietary trading income was 8.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 62% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 89.3% [2]. - **Brokerage Business**: The brokerage business net income grew by 36.2% year-on-year, with total transaction volume in the stock market reaching 100 trillion yuan, a 68% increase year-on-year [3]. - **Asset Management**: Asset management income increased by 8.7% year-on-year, with a stable contribution from Huaxia Fund, which reported a total AUM of 1.91 trillion yuan [4]. - **Investment Banking**: Investment banking revenue saw a significant year-on-year increase of 212% in refinancing, although IPO underwriting scaled down [4][6]. - **Credit Business**: The credit business faced challenges with net interest income turning negative due to reduced interest income and increased interest expenses [6]. Financial Metrics - The company maintained a high return on equity (ROE) of 9.5% annualized, with a net profit margin of 36.9%, both reflecting strong operational efficiency [7]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16, 15, and 14 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [9].