Group 1 - The S&P 500 has historically shown minimal negative impact during government shutdowns, with only three out of the last ten shutdowns resulting in a decline [4][5][6] - Since the current government shutdown began on October 1, the S&P 500 has only decreased by approximately 0.2% as of October 22, aligning with historical trends [5][6] - Key federal economic data, such as inflation and unemployment reports, are often delayed during shutdowns due to the closure of agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics [7][8] Group 2 - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) halts its operations during government shutdowns, leading to delays in the review and approval of initial public offerings (IPOs) and other corporate filings [9][10] - Companies planning to go public or make significant filings will face postponements as there will be no personnel available to review necessary documents [10]

The U.S. Capitol is seen on the second day of the federal government shutdown on October 2, 2025, in Washington D.C.With the government shutdown nearing its one-week mark, investors may be monitoring how the stalemate in Washington is affecting their portfolios.So far, stocks have been doing just fine. Although the S&P 500 was down slightly on Tuesday, the index returned 0.80% between Oct. 1 and Oct. 6 — and even notched several new highs.And it turns out that market gains during and following a government ...

预测市场显示，投资者预计此次停摆将持续10天或更长时间。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 谁还需要一个完全正常运转的联邦政府呢？显然不是美股多头。在政府停摆进入第二天的周四，三大股指均创历史最高收盘纪录。 停摆到底要持续多久才会引发投资者恐慌？ LPL Financial首席技术策略师亚当·特恩奎斯特（Adam Turnquist）在周三的报告中指出，自20世纪70年代中期以来，美国共发生过50次政 府停摆，平均持续8天，而股市在停摆后1个月和3个月的平均回报率均为正值（见下图）。 特恩奎斯特写道："尽管政府停摆给市场带来了新一层不确定性，但从历史来看，停摆持续时间较短，因此对经济的影响微乎其微。投资 者通常会忽略与预算相关的干扰，更关注企业盈利、整体经济趋势及其他关键宏观经济因素。" 在Kalshi平台上，若停摆持续超过10天则触发兑付的合约交易价格为63美分，意味着市场认为该情况发生的概率为63%；若停摆超过15天 则兑付的合约，对应的概率为40%。 在Polymarket平台上，类似合约显示：停摆在10月10日至14日期间结束的概率为34%，持续超过10月15日的概率为40%。 ...

Key Points Historically, there has been no correlation between stock market performance and government shutdowns. The current shutdown comes at a time when the labor market is rapidly weakening. An extended shutdown could increase the chances of a recession. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › Oct. 1 marked the first day of the federal government shutdown after Congress did not agree to fund the government. A debate over Obamacare subsidies is the primary hurdle standing in the way. Th ...

(图片由豆包AI生成 提示词 引线燃烧中的炸弹) 几天后，又一颗美国"市场大雷"将引爆。 距离美国联邦政府资金耗尽仅剩一周不到 ，除非国会在3月14日午夜前通过一项临时支出法案，否则美国政府将面临停摆。 众议院共和党人8日已提出一项议案，预计最早将于下周二进行投票表决，提案需获得多数票支持方能通过。 然而， 民主党目前大多持反对意见。 有分析指出，这或许是为了挑衅民主党，逼迫他们投下反对票，从而将政府关门的责任推到对方身上。从现状来看，民 主党和共和党表面上都希望达成一个方案以避免政府关门，双方都不愿承担这一责任。 政府停摆对投资者意味着什么？《巴伦周刊》分析认为， 短期内，市场波动性可能会加剧。 但根据以往政府停摆期间股市的表现，投资者无需过度恐慌。 当然，这一次的情况可能有所不同：政府停摆发生在贸易冲突的担忧已经搅动股市的背景下。 今年以来，标普500指数已下跌近2%，纳斯达克指数下跌约 6%。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）今年上涨近35%，达到23左右，表明华尔街的恐慌情绪正在加剧。 即使众议院共和党人设法通过该提案，它也需要在参议院获得至少60票的支持，但目前共和党仅占53个席位。 民主党方面表 ...