| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/8/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 34.0↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1358.000 | 1696.7 | +8.50↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2510-EC2512价差 +13.50↑ EC2510-EC2602价差 | -338.70 | -138.90 | +17.10↑ | | EC合约基差 | -238.97↓ | 632.20 | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 102↑ | 54357 | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | -189.97↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1990.20 | 1,041.38 | -64.91↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | -44.83↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 1415.36 | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） -18.47↓ CCFI（欧线）（周） | 117 ...

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在过去的半年多里，加拿大在国际舞台上展现了强硬的姿态，尤其是在与美国的贸易冲突中毫不退让。美国与加拿大的关税战持续升温，尤其是加拿大自8 月初起被美国加征了35%的关税。虽然"硬刚"这种态度令人敬佩，但它所付出的代价也十分沉重。对比之下，欧盟在8月21日选择放松对美国工业品的关 税，而将大部分关税降低至15%，显示出他们的妥协态度。这种"服软"策略似乎带来了好处，使得加拿大也开始重新考虑自己的立场。 至此，全球十大经济体中，仅剩下中国、印度和巴西三个国家依然坚持不与美国妥协。中国作为全球第二大经济体，无论在经济、军事实力，还是科技创新 方面，都具备与美国一较高下的能力。自特朗普在2024年4月2日对中国发动关税战以来，中国毫不退让，选择了以牙还牙的反击策略。面对中国的坚决反 制，美国很快意识到两国经济深度交织，短期内无法脱钩，因此在4月11日深夜，特朗普就宣布对部分中国商品的关税豁免，涉及金额超过千亿美元。然 而，中国没有因此改变立场，继续坚定地坚持自己的底线。随着谈判的深入，双方最终达成了10%的对等关税协议，尽管对中国商品额外征收了芬太尼关 税。这个妥协的结果也彰显了中国在对抗美国的关税战中取得了显著的成 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.8.22」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 周度要点总结 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格多数下跌，主力合约EC2510收跌4.66%，远月合约收跌3-5%不等。最新SCFIS欧线 结算运价指数为2180.17，较上周回落55.31点，环比下行2.5%，现货指标持续回落。头部船司（如马士基、地中海航 运、赫伯罗特等）为争夺淡季货量开启"价格战"，大幅调降8月运价报价，上周五ONE亦调降8月底欧线现舱报价， 市场预期转冷。美国总统特朗普表示，计划在未来两周内宣布对钢铁、芯片和半导体加征关税，进一步加剧全球贸易 局势不确定性，推高市场对贸易冲突再度升级的预期。7月会议纪要显示，美联储上月维持利率不变的决定仍获广泛 支持，主要宏观变量仍围绕通胀和就业的风险，联储官员在降息观点上存在明显分歧，不过多数认为通胀反弹风险高 于失业率上行风险，市场预期9月降息预期转弱。此外，2025 Q2欧元区GDP增速略超市场预期，服务业和制造业活动 逐步回暖。通胀放缓叠加经济数据稳定给予欧央行利率政策弹性。 在需求未能显著改善的背景下，运力过剩仍是未来供给端 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core View The uncertainty of the trade war still exists the demand expectation of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is weak and the futures price fluctuates greatly investors are advised to be cautious pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control and track geopolitical capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - EC主力收盘价1373.100环比上涨0.1 EC次主力收盘价1789.7环比上涨40.30 [1] - EC2510 - EC2512价差 -416.60环比下降27.20 EC2510 - EC2602价差 -164.80环比下降8.30 [1] - EC合约基差807.07环比下降54.81 [1] - EC主力持仓量53182手环比下降1677手 [1] - SCFIS（欧线）周数据2180.17环比下降55.31 SCFIS（美西线）周数据1106.29环比下降24.15 [1] - SCFI（综合指数）周数据1460.19环比下降29.49 集装箱船运力1227.97万标准箱环比持平 [1] - CCFI（综合指数）周数据1193.34环比下降7.39 CCFI（欧线）周数据1790.47环比下降8.58 [1] - 波罗的海干散货指数日数据2044.00环比下降5.00 巴拿马型运费指数日数据1622.00环比下降19.00 [1] - 巴拿马型船平均租船价格13956.00环比上涨120.00 好望角型船平均租船价格25535.00环比下降1183.00 [1] Industry News - 央行发布第二季度货币政策执行报告提出落实落细适度宽松的货币政策保持流动性充裕促进物价合理回升发挥货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能支持科技创新等领域 [1] - 美国特朗普政府宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口征收50%关税的范围将数百种衍生产品纳入加征关税清单8月18日正式生效 [1] - 美国中东问题特使表示美俄领导人8月15日会晤取得重大进展促使特朗普放弃俄乌立即停火诉求致力于推进更广泛和平协议俄罗斯在涉及五个乌克兰地区问题上作出"一些让步"普京同意在未来和平协议中纳入"类北约第五条款"安全保障条款 [1] Market Analysis - 周四集运指数（欧线）期货价格多数上涨主力合约EC2510收涨0.01%远月合约收涨1 - 2%不等 [1] - 最新SCFIS欧线结算运价指数为2180.17较上周回落55.31点环比下行2.5%现货指标持续回落 [1] - 头部船司为争夺淡季货量开启"价格战"大幅调降8月运价报价ONE亦调降8月底欧线现舱报价市场预期转冷 [1] - 美国特朗普计划在未来两周内宣布对钢铁芯片和半导体加征关税加剧全球贸易局势不确定性 [1] - 美国7月CPI与非农数据放缓提振联储9月降息概率但PPI指标显示生产者通胀超预期反弹或转嫁成本抬升CPI消费者通胀数据申领失业金人数延续韧性美联储9月降息概率边际下滑 [1] - 2025 Q2欧元区GDP增速略超市场预期服务业和制造业活动逐步回暖通胀放缓叠加经济数据稳定给予欧央行利率政策弹性 [1] Key Points to Watch - 8月19日16:00关注欧元区6月季调后经常帐(亿欧元) 8月19日20:30关注美国7月新屋开工总数年化(万户) [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) mostly declined on Monday, with the main contract EC2510 down 2.71% and the far - month contracts down 1 - 2%. The spot indicators continued to fall. Trade war uncertainties remain, the demand expectation for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is weak, and the futures prices fluctuate greatly. However, the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures prices to rise in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1408.800, down 39.2; EC sub - main contract closing price: 1750, down 18.70. The EC2510 - EC2512 spread was - 341.20, down 17.20; the EC2510 - EC2602 spread was - 108.30, down 13.90. The EC contract basis was 826.68, down 35.18. The main contract's open interest was 56688, up 86 [1]. 3.2 Shipping Index Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 2235.48, down 62.38; SCFIS (US West Coast Line) (weekly): 1082.14, down 47.98. SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1489.68, down 61.06. CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1200.73, down 31.56; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1799.05, up 9.55 [1]. 3.3 Freight Index and Charter Price Data - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2051.00, down 43.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1635.00, up 14.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 13075.00, up 386.00; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 25236.00, down 1250.00 [1]. 3.4 Industry News - The personnel changes at the Federal Reserve have led to adjustments in policy expectations. JPMorgan currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting, followed by three more 25 - basis - point cuts and then an indefinite pause. The US government will stop providing tax credits for electric vehicles from September 30. In July, the sales of electric vehicles accounted for 9.1% of the total passenger car sales, a record high, and the sales of used electric vehicles were close to 36700, also a monthly high. The minutes of the Bank of Japan's July policy meeting showed that although most members still supported future interest rate hikes, concerns about the negative impact of US tariff increases on the Japanese economy cooled market bets on short - term interest rate hikes [1]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Data and Trade Policy Impact - US President Trump signed an executive order to modify "reciprocal tariffs" for dozens of countries, with tax rates ranging from 10% to 41%. Goods considered to be transshipped to avoid tariffs will be subject to an additional 40% tariff. The US S&P Global Composite PMI index in June fell slightly from 53 in May to 52.8. The US retail sales data in June rebounded unexpectedly, with a month - on - month growth rate of 0.6%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 0.1%. China recently imposed counter - measures on Belarusian and medical device products from the EU, further intensifying Sino - EU trade tensions [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: This week, the supply - demand structure of steel products continued to weaken. The market sentiment was still volatile due to the continuous speculation of production cuts by Tangshan rolling mills. The recommended strategy is to short with a light position in the short - term and focus on the callback space [5]. - **Iron Ore**: This week, the supply of iron ore was relatively stable, and the demand changed little. The supply - demand structure change was neutral. In the short - term, the bullish sentiment in the market may cool down, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded, and the decline may be smaller than that of steel products. The recommended strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Steel Products Weekly Market Tracking - **Price**: The spot price of steel products decreased slightly, and the futures market fluctuated. The Shanghai rebar futures contract 10 rose 10 to close at 3213, and the spot price in East China dropped 20 to 3340 yuan/ton [9][12]. - **Supply**: The blast furnace operation rate increased slightly, while the EAF production decreased slightly. The total supply of the five major steel products increased by 1.79 tons to 869.21 tons this week. Rebar production increased by 10.12 tons, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 7.9 tons [13][25]. - **Demand**: The demand for building materials decreased, and the demand for plates weakened slightly. The national concrete shipment volume decreased by 3.13% week - on - week. In July, the domestic demand for plates weakened significantly due to the unexpected decline in automobile sales [26][31]. - **Profit**: The profit of long - process production remained high, while the profit of EAF production decreased. The blast furnace profit rate was 68.4%, and the average profit of independent EAF construction steel mills was - 35 yuan/ton [32][34]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of building materials continued to increase, and the inventory of plates accumulated at an accelerated pace. The total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 23.47 tons to 1375.36 tons [35][38]. - **Basis**: The basis of building materials narrowed significantly, and the basis of plates widened. The rebar 10 basis narrowed by 30 to 117, and the hot - rolled coil basis widened by 23 to 12 [42][44]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread was - 73, and the inversion deepened by 19 compared with last week. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the 1 - 5 spread [45][47]. - **Inter - product Spread**: The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread widened. The current spread is at a moderately high level, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity for the 01 spread to narrow [48][50]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking - **Price**: The spot price of iron ore fluctuated, and the futures market had a narrow - range movement. The 09 contract rose 7 to close at 790, and the spot price of Rizhao Port PB fines rose 2 to 771 yuan/ton [54][56]. - **Supply**: Global shipments decreased, and the supply from distant sources tightened. The 47 - port arrival volume increased by 303 tons to 2622.4 tons [57][65]. - **Rigid Demand**: The pig iron production decreased slightly, and the demand declined slightly. The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.32 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons compared with last week [66][68]. - **Speculative Demand**: The port trading volume decreased, and the downstream restocking was weak. The average daily port trading volume last week was 95.4 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons compared with the previous week [69][72]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly. As of August 8, the total inventory of 47 ports was 14267.27 tons, an increase of 45 tons compared with the previous week [73][75]. - **Downstream Inventory**: The steel mill inventory decreased slightly. The total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills decreased by 74.41 tons to 2756.28 tons [76][78]. - **Shipping**: The shipping freight rates showed mixed trends. The freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao decreased by 0.31 dollars/ton to 9.98 dollars/ton, and the freight rate from Brazil to Qingdao increased by 0.27 dollars/ton to 24.075 dollars/ton [79][81]. - **Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread narrowed, and the futures and spot prices were basically at parity. The 9 - 1 spread narrowed by 9.5 to 16.5, and the 09 contract was at a discount of 3.3 [83][85].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) fluctuated. The main contract EC2510 rose 0.27%, while other contracts had gains ranging from -1% to 4%. The latest SCFIS Europe Line settlement freight rate index was 2,297.86, down 18.7 points from last week, a 0.8% decrease [6][44]. - Trump's tariff measures have intensified global trade uncertainties and raised market expectations of a resurgence in trade conflicts. The US consumer sector shows resilience, but there is an upward risk of inflation in the future. The Q2 2025 GDP growth of the Eurozone slightly exceeded market expectations, and the ECB has more flexibility in its interest - rate policy [6][44]. - From July to August, the traditional peak season for European routes has led to an increase in delivery volume. The recovery of cargo volume has offset some market concerns, and the complexity of the geopolitical situation has postponed the resumption of Red Sea voyages, pushing up the freight rates on European routes. However, freight and industry profitability may be under pressure, and the peak season may be "not so peaky" with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly [7][45]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures contracts: EC2508 fell 2.08%, EC2510 rose 0.27%, EC2512 rose 4.27%, EC2602 rose 3.00%, EC2604 rose 1.74%, and EC2606 rose 1.42%. The SCFIS index fell 0.8% [10]. - The price of the main contract of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) rose slightly this week, and the trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract both increased [13][18] 2. News Review and Analysis - In July, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 3.91 trillion yuan, a 6.7% year - on - year increase. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, up 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up 4.8%. In the first seven months, the total import and export value was 25.7 trillion yuan, a 3.5% year - on - year increase [21]. - Trump criticized Powell for late interest - rate cuts, may soon announce a new Fed chairman, and plans to raise tariffs on India, chips, and semiconductors. The US - Japan trade agreement has ongoing disputes, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff [21] 3. Chart Analysis - This week, the basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) futures contracts converged, and the export container freight rate index declined [27][29]. - Container shipping capacity decreased in the short term. The BDI and BPI rebounded due to geopolitical factors. The average charter price of Panamax ships rebounded rapidly, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated [34][38] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures price of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) fluctuated this week. Trump's tariff policies have increased trade uncertainties. The US consumer sector shows resilience, but inflation may rise. The Eurozone's economic data is stable, and the ECB has more flexibility in interest - rate policies [44]. - The peak season for European routes from July to August has led to an increase in delivery volume, but freight and industry profitability may be under pressure, and freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual follow - up increase in shipping companies' cabin opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade - war - related information [7][45]

明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/8/6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | | 1420.100 | | 9.0↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1751.4 | +69.30↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2510-EC2512价差 -53.80↓ EC2510-EC2602价差 | -331.30 | | | -89.20 | -9.80↓ | | EC合约基差 | | 877.76 | -7.10↓ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | 54361 | 2253↑ | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | -18.70↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 2297.86 | | | 1,130.42 | -153.39↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | -41.85↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | 2025/8/5 | | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1413.000 8.8↑ EC次主力收盘价 1690.5 | +20.20↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2510-EC2512价差 -255.40 +0.00↑ EC2510-EC2602价差 -48.40 | +0.00↑ | | EC合约基差 | 876.06 +0.00↑ | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 52108 1055↑ | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 2297.86 -18.70↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,130.42 | -153.39↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周 ...