【文/观察者网 齐倩】 美国特朗普政府打出关税"七伤拳"，害人不成，反噬其身。 据路透社10月8日报道，在特朗普对巴西、中国征收高额关税后，巴西农产品扩大对中国等新市场的出 口。最新数据显示，巴西近期对华牛肉、大豆出口量激增，助推这两项农产品出口总量双双创新高。 其中，中国市场对巴西牛肉需求强劲，巴西9月牛肉对华出口量同比增长38.3%，创下单月出口量新 高。 巴西大豆填补美国空缺 粮食出口商协会Anec 8日预测，截至10月底，巴西的大豆出口量预计将达到创纪录的1.022亿吨，打破 了2023年创下的1.013亿吨纪录。 路透社称，大豆出口量创纪录，原因在于巴西收获创纪录的超过1.7亿吨大豆，以及巴西农民受益于中 国的强劲需求。受美国关税影响，中国买家不再购买美国大豆。 "中国仍然是巴西大豆运输的主要目的地和驱动力，"Anec在报告中说，上个月，中国从巴西进口了650 万吨大豆，占巴西大豆出口总量的93%。 Anec数据显示，当前，中国买家主要依靠巴西来保证大豆供应，占巴西大豆出口总额的79.9%，而这一 比例在2021年至2024年期间为74%。 在巴西大豆出口总量中，中国市场占比超79%Anec制图 A ...

特朗普在8月时曾亲自推销美国的大豆，但并没有收到预期的回应。美国农业州的农民开始向华府发声，抱怨找不到买家，收割机的忙碌却没有人前来购 买。到了10月1日，特朗普终于在社交媒体上表示，他计划在即将召开的APEC峰会上将大豆问题作为一个"主要议题"进行讨论。他甚至表示，将用从关税 中"赚到的钱"来补贴农民，同时指责前任总统拜登，让中国放弃了数十亿美元的大豆订单。 从今年5月起，中国已经没有再从美国进口大豆，这一变化意味着27年来的首次。造成这一局面的，是双方互相加征的高额关税。美国挑起了贸易冲突，而 中国则做出了回应。虽然两国的行动都符合贸易规则，但它们的后果却充满了冲突。 此前，中美曾达成共识，暂停关税战，窗口期持续到11月10号。如果无法达成协议，美国计划对中国加征145%的关税，中方则会对美方加征125%的关税。 这一举措几乎意味着双方的贸易将陷入全面瘫痪。美国的通胀将会飙升，普通家庭的生活成本将会进一步增加。而美国这两年已经面临着较大的生活成本压 力，牛奶、鸡蛋和汽油等商品的价格，已经让不少家庭感到吃力。这些问题远不是简单的政治话术，而是美国人日常生活中的真实困境。 许多人猜测，中国会不会在APEC峰会 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 【文/观察者网 柳白】时间一天天过去，中国还会买本季美国大豆吗？美国豆农眼巴巴盼着，而美国政 客的心越来越凉…… 美国《国会山报》9月30日披露，当天在与美国驻华大使庞德伟举行闭门简报会后，共和党议员们坦承 中国短期内可能不会再购买美国农产品。同日，美国农业部长布鲁克·罗林斯承认，农业经济目前状况 不佳，联邦政府正在争分夺秒开展工作，预计很快会宣布农业救助计划。 "特朗普总统已把达成贸易协议列为公开的首要任务。"他说，美方近期在与中方高层接触，"我知道他 们在积极推进，你总要抱有希望。" 北达科他州共和党参议员约翰·霍文声称，中国"把美国农民当做谈判筹码"，"我们必须确保我们的农民 不出局。要采取措施防止中国利用我们的弱点。" 去年大选中，美国农民可谓特朗普的大票仓，但如今承受着贸易冲突带来的经济痛苦。这种情况让主要 农业州的共和党议员对特朗普的贸易政策感到沮丧，他们越来越担心明年的中期选举前景。 就在美国大豆对华滞销之际，被视作特朗普盟友的阿根廷米莱政府，却通过减税手段扩大了对华大豆出 口，尤其是特朗普政府还打算出手救助阿根廷金融市场 ...

美农民破大防！ 据外媒消息，往年9月份，美农民都会喜气洋洋，到农田收割大豆。因为这是我国买家开始下单的时 间。但今年情况出现了变化：自5月以来，中方没有购买过美一粒大豆。 根据记录，这是1998年之后，第一次没有购买美大豆。更令人扎心的是，在将大豆关税提高23%之后， 川普原本对农民所承诺的补贴，至今一毛钱都没有兑现。 川普想要用关税大棒吓唬人，结果先倒霉的是自己人。 中美之间的大豆博弈由来已久。 2001年之前，我国多次申请WTO均被美拒绝，原因之一就是美方要求我们开放粮食市场，我们不同 意。经过多轮谈判后，双方各退一步，我国用"开放大豆市场"的代价，换得了进入WTO的机会。 这时候，美就开始玩起了骚操作。 2003年，美农业部宣布因为旱情，连续4个月调低大豆的预期库存，大豆价格应声暴涨。次年3月，他们 再次宣布不会进行增产，大豆价格继续上涨。 中企害怕价格还会攀升，纷纷和美企签署高价采购合同。然而，等合同到手后，美农业部却话风一转， 表示之前大豆库存统计数据有误，实际上并不缺大豆。消息一出，大豆价格开启暴跌。 而刚签完合同的中企直接傻眼，要是按合同约定的高价采购那会亏的一塌糊涂，只好被迫违约，支付天 价违 ...

不过，这个计划并没有按照特朗普的预期顺利进行。美国要求盟友们一起对中国和印度加税，但这个提议没有得到支持，反而 遇到了两大"坏消息"。日本、欧盟和印度都不愿意跟美国一起行动，反而选择独立做决定。美国在这件事上越来越孤立，给特 朗普带来了很大的外交压力。 那么，特朗普为什么这么坚持要对中国和印度加税呢？他的目的就是通过经济手段逼迫两国停止支持俄罗斯，从而削弱俄罗斯 的战争资金。不过，这个计划并不如预期那样顺利进行。大多数国家没有支持美国的要求，而是根据自己的经济利益做出了独 立判断。 美国要求的100%的高额关税遭遇了广泛反对。很多国家认为，这样的制裁不仅会影响全球经济，还会对它们的贸易关系造成 严重冲击。毕竟，中国和印度分别是全球第二和第三大经济体，它们和欧盟、印度及其他西方国家有着紧密的经济关系。如果 贸然加征关税，可能不仅会影响中印两国的经济，还可能引发全球贸易冲突。 特朗普的第一个坏消息来自日本。日本财务大臣加藤胜信明确表示，仅仅因为中国和印度从俄罗斯购买石油，就对它们征收 50%的关税，是完全不能接受的。日本的经济高度依赖对外贸易，特别是和中国的贸易关系非常密切。日本的汽车、机械、电 子产业都需要大量 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a decline last week, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.44%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.30%, and the CSI 500 index up by 0.32% [3] - Economic data for August was below market expectations, with weak production, consumption, and new housing sales data [3] - The recent economic performance in China has been significantly impacted by declining exports, with real estate sales in first-tier cities continuing to decline [3][4] Group 2 - The technical market features indicate a significant shift in capital allocation, with the financial sector becoming a major variable in the index decline, while the technology sector has absorbed funds from the financial sector [4] - The recommendation for the main board is to reduce positions to a low level and focus on avoiding risks, as the market is expected to revert to mean levels [4] - The small-cap sector showed stronger performance than the main board but is likely supported by speculative funds, suggesting a reduction in positions to a low level [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have returned to $3,400, indicating a cyclical nature in the market despite ongoing uncertainties such as unresolved trade conflicts and geopolitical risks [1] - The gold market is characterized by a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with $3,300 serving as a central pivot point, where bulls currently have a slight advantage [1] - There is an emphasis on the importance of letting go of non-mainstream trading trends and reducing pressure on oneself when making trading decisions [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that the interest rate decision remains undecided, contributing to market volatility [1] - It suggests that excessive defensiveness can lead to hesitation in trading, advocating for a more relaxed approach to entering and exiting trades [1] - The overall sentiment reflects a need for traders to reconcile with their strategies and avoid overthinking their decisions [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The freight index (European line) futures prices mostly rose on Monday, with the main contract EC2510 up 2.57% and the far - month contracts down 1% to 1%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 55.31 points from last week, a 8.7% decline. Spot indicators are falling, expected to drive down futures prices. Top shipping companies are in a "price war", and market expectations are turning cold. The plan to impose tariffs on steel, chips and semiconductors increases global trade uncertainty. The Fed's view on interest - rate cuts is divided, and the market's expectation of a September rate cut is weakening. The Q2 2025 euro - zone GDP growth slightly exceeded expectations, and the ECB has more flexibility in interest - rate policy. Overall, due to trade war uncertainties, weak demand expectations for the freight index (European line), and large fluctuations in futures prices, investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1358.000, up 8.50; EC second - main contract closing price: 1696.7 - EC2510 - EC2512 spread: + 13.50 (up), EC2510 - EC2602 spread: - 138.90, up 17.10 - EC contract basis: - 238.97 (down) - EC main contract open interest: 54357, up 102 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1990.20, down 189.97; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly): 1041.38, down 64.91 - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1415.36, down 44.83; container ship capacity: 1227.97 (no change) - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1174.87, down 18.47; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1757.74, down 32.73 - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1944.00, down 51.00; Panama freight index (daily): 1770.00, down 51.00 - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 13907.00, up 118.00; average charter price (Capesize ship): 19777.00, down 1423.00 [1] Industry News - China and the US are natural agricultural cooperation partners, and China is the largest export market for US agricultural products - Fed Chairman Powell said the risk balance is changing, and traders increased bets on a September rate cut - US President Trump threatened to fire Fed Governor Cook if she doesn't resign voluntarily [1] Key Data to Focus On - August 26, 20:30: US July durable goods orders monthly rate - August 26, 21:00: US June FHFA housing price index monthly rate - August 26, 21:00: US June S&P/CS20 major cities unadjusted housing price index annual rate [1]

Private Equity Market Review - The Hong Kong Jockey Club is withdrawing up to $1 billion from Blackstone Group and other acquisition firms, selling U.S. assets due to escalating trade tensions since the beginning of Trump's presidency [6] - Other Asian funds and wealthy investors are also reducing investments in the U.S. market, citing concerns over the unpredictability caused by trade conflicts [6] Hedge Fund Market Overview - Bloomberg's preliminary data shows hedge funds rose by 1.2% last month, with the event-driven hedge fund index leading the gains [6] - Year-to-date, hedge funds have increased by 5.3%, with equity funds showing the highest growth at 8.7% [6] - Castle Investment and Dymon Asia Capital are increasing talent acquisition in Asia to expand their operations in the region [6] Fund Performance Data - The Bloomberg All Hedge Fund Index closed on July 31, 2025, with a 1-month return of 1.19%, a 3-month return of 5.95%, and a year-to-date total return of 5.34% [7] - The Bloomberg Equity Hedge Index reported a 1-month return of 1.63% and a year-to-date return of 8.75% [7] - The Bloomberg Event Driven Hedge Index showed a 1-month return of 3.51% and a year-to-date return of 6.16% [7] Industry Developments - New Silk Road Investment Pte, one of Singapore's oldest hedge funds, is set to close due to poor returns and significant asset shrinkage from nearly $2 billion in 2021 to $615 million by the end of last year [6] - The closure reflects the increasing challenges faced by smaller hedge funds amid market volatility and intensified geopolitical competition [6] - Millennium Management has allocated funds to external management companies in South Korea, indicating a trend of diversification in investment strategies [8]

Group 1 - Canada has adopted a tough stance on the international stage, particularly in its trade conflict with the United States, which has escalated with a 35% tariff imposed by the U.S. since early August [1] - The European Union has chosen to lower tariffs on U.S. industrial goods to 15%, indicating a more conciliatory approach compared to Canada [1] - The global economic landscape shows that only China, India, and Brazil are maintaining a hardline stance against the U.S., while most other countries, including Canada, are opting for compromise under pressure [16][18] Group 2 - Canada’s Prime Minister Carney announced the removal of tariffs on all U.S. goods under the CUSMA agreement, signaling a shift towards compromise despite retaining tariffs on key industries like steel, aluminum, and automobiles [5] - India has faced significant pressure from the U.S., resulting in a 50% overall tariff, with the country unwilling to compromise due to domestic agricultural interests [11] - Brazil, as a key player in the BRICS nations, has chosen to deepen cooperation with China, particularly in agriculture, while facing a 50% tariff from the U.S. [13] Group 3 - The ongoing trade tensions highlight the challenges faced by countries in maintaining their positions against U.S. pressure, with only a few nations capable of withstanding such economic challenges [18] - The situation reflects a broader trend where countries with strong capabilities and resilience are more likely to succeed in navigating the complexities of international trade conflicts [16][18]