【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：震荡延续 执业资格证书编号：F03095187/Z0022441 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 26 日 棉花：在美国最高法院上周五驳回了特朗普总统的全球互惠关税之后，特朗 普随后宣普遍税率为 10%，他后来说这一税率将升至 15%。周二，商务部新闻发 言人称中方正密切关注并将全面评估美方相关举措，后续将视情适时决定调整针 对美方原芬太尼关税和对等关税的反制措施。棉花的反弹因为潜在的贸易冲突中 断反弹，后续关税冲突是否真的形成冲突也是影响近月供需的重要原因。 美棉的供需结构开始逐渐收紧，巴西以及国内种植面积都有缩减预期，棉花 逐渐从供需宽松转向平衡，不过需要关注最近的美国关税政策调整是否会影响到 棉花的需求预期。此外中美第六论经贸磋商在即，谈判走向也将影响情绪面，后 续可重点关注。 白糖：据外媒报道，巴西航运机构 Williams 发布的数据显示，截至 2 月 25 日当周，巴西港口等待装运食糖的船只数量为 41 艘，此前一周为 43 艘。港口等 待装运的食糖数量为 146.17 万 ...

摘要 【行情复盘】春节后首日化工及股市大幅高开，受此提振，橡胶期 价增仓再度挑战前高，假期橡胶海外现货稳中偏强，产地停割对胶 价形成支撑。宏观美国2025年四季度美国GDP增速环比折年率1.4 %，远低于市场预计的2.5%，也低于三季度的修正值4.4%；美国个 人消费支出（PCE）物价指数上涨2.9%，高于前值的2.8%; 美国1 月核心CPI年率如期降至2.5%，创近5年来新低, 从通胀结构来看， 超级核心服务通胀环比增速录得1年以来新高，核心商品本次环比 反弹力度料更大；相对而言现阶段经济的关注高于通胀，降息预期 有所抬升。另一端，美伊对抗进一步升级，美国考虑对伊朗实施有 限的军事打击，同时俄乌谈判未取得实质性进展，原油价格大幅高 开，原油带动合成橡胶出现高开，但需警惕美伊局势变化导致地缘 情绪降温以及宏观避险情绪升温带来原油溢价回吐，此外需要关注 中方对新一轮关税措施的回应情况。 农产品团队 | 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月23日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 天然橡胶周度策略报告 摘要 【行情复盘】春节假期外盘橡胶期价整体波动不大，产地现货价格 稳中偏强，但美伊对抗进一步升级，美国考虑对伊朗实施有限的军 事打击，同时俄乌谈判未取得实质性进展，原油价格预计将会大幅 高开，节后原油可能带动合成橡胶出现高开，整体呈现偏强走势， 但需警惕美伊局势变化导致地缘情绪降温以及宏观避险情绪升温带 来原油溢价回吐，此外需要关注中方对新一轮关税措施的回应情况 。 【重要资讯】美东时间20日傍晚，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体 发文称，他刚刚签署行政令，对所有国家征收10%的全球关税，几 乎立即生效，市场对 ...

特朗普在社交媒体发文，全球输美商品税率从10%提高到15%。 新年还没开工，特朗普直接"开炸"，给市场送来新年祝福：加税关税。 这次关税政策遭遇企业集体诉讼，属于"越权"行为，金融市场关心的不是对错，是影响和共识。 旧秩序，老规矩，特朗普自立边界和规则，"越权"是常态，不越反而不是特朗普性格，反对声越大他越兴奋。 早上受消息面影响黄金白银双双跳空上涨，黄金重回5180美元，击穿了前期5100-5120美元强压力，为后期上涨提供了方向，贸易冲突，地缘风险，货币 政策没有消失，也不会消失。 另外，白银这次急跌40%降温，这次是预演熊市，后期在资产配置上平衡极端风险下的承压，防止下次出现类似情况获利回吐。 目前技术面黄金突破5100美元的强压力区域，多头会进一步延伸，今天整体还是以低多为主，国内黄金暂时停盘，明天才能开盘交易，突破后的下一个压 力区域在5250-5300美元，其次才是5400美元附近。 所以黄金低点抬高，高点突破，回撤后支撑在5120-30美元附近，或5150美元找位置做多，向上关注5200-5250美元，亚盘上涨欧盘延续，美盘前还有一次 多的机会。 一：买预期卖事实，事实不重要，比如：美联储突然决 ...

现在的黄金根本不看技术，不看经验， 只看"勇气"。有没有敢于上车的勇气。 回头看看以前的上涨都是小弟，转眼金价5600美元了，每一天都像坐火箭一样。 1月美联储没有降息，维持原有利率不变，这不是重点，重点是市场已经完全忽视了任何利空，只要调整就是为了更大幅度的上涨。 鲍威尔刚讲完特朗普马上浇一盆冷水，一切的规则在特朗普眼里都会阻挡美国再次伟大，他从来不被规则所束缚。 2026年5月鲍威尔任期结束，货币政策的方向极有可能偏向特朗普支撑的大幅度降息，市场已经开始为接下来更大幅度的降息做准备。 地缘风险，贸易冲突，货币政策集中引发了对法币不信任，市场已经不再听任何故事，黄金和白银市场空头几乎死绝了，包括机构在内，没有几个敢和市 场叫板。 过去的经验是你的英雄，成就过你，当下的行情就会毁了你，以前数波浪，找指标共振，都已经全部失效，极强单边牛市行情往往会重新定价历史。 说一下今天黄金行情： 一夜之间金价加速上涨至5600美元，今年一个月时间涨了1200美元，上一次单边持续1000多美金还是去年8-10月，用了近2个月的时间。 现在上涨的速度越来越快，时间被压缩，没有所谓的压力，更没有预知的高点，形态只有走出来才确认高 ...

Two prominent American investors in South Korean e-commerce giant, Coupang Inc., have lodged formal complaints with the US government. They are seeking an investigation into what they perceive as prejudiced actions by the South Korean government against the company.Investors Call for InvestigationGreenoaks and Altimeter, the two tech investment firms, have also initiated arbitration proceedings against South Korea. They cite the US–Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) and accuse Seoul of leading an aggressive ...

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between the United States and Canada is deteriorating, with Canada responding to U.S. threats of tariffs by promoting domestic products and seeking to diversify its trade partnerships [2][3][4]. Group 1: U.S.-Canada Tensions - President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada reaches agreements with certain countries [2][3]. - Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau called on citizens to "buy Canadian" in response to external threats, emphasizing the need for Canada to focus on what it can control [3][4]. - Trudeau's remarks at the World Economic Forum indicated a significant shift in Canada's policy towards the U.S., advocating for medium powers to collaborate and avoid becoming victims of U.S. hegemony [4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Since Trump's return to the White House, relations have worsened, leading to Canadian public backlash against U.S. products and travel [6]. - A Pew Research Center poll indicated that by 2025, 64% of Canadians held a negative view of the U.S., the highest in over two decades, with 77% expressing distrust in Trump [6]. - The trade conflict has already caused a 2% decline in Canadian exports to the U.S. by 2025, attributed to increased costs from tariffs [6][7]. Group 3: Economic Strategy - The Canadian economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter of 2025, with exports down by 7.5%, largely due to U.S. trade actions [7]. - The Canadian government is pursuing an economic transformation focused on diversification and resilience, aiming to double exports to non-U.S. markets over the next decade [7].

Core Viewpoint - The current international economic situation is complex and filled with uncertainties, as highlighted during the recent Davos Forum, where calls for free trade and the rejection of unilateralism were emphasized [1] Group 1: Economic Coercion and Its Impacts - Economic coercion has emerged as a tactic for achieving political objectives, which poses significant risks to global supply chains and economic stability [3] - The U.S. has imposed a 200% tariff on French wine, directly targeting France's political stance and demonstrating the intertwining of economic and political actions [3][4] - France's wine and champagne exports, valued at €4.5 billion annually, are crucial to its economy, and the sudden tariffs will severely impact related industries and employment [4] Group 2: U.S.-France Relations and European Unity - The U.S. is using economic measures to send political warnings to Europe, with tariffs ranging from 10% to 25% being applied to other European nations as well [5] - French President Macron has condemned U.S. policies, warning of potential impacts on NATO and the Western alliance, while considering alliances with other nations to counteract U.S. actions [5] - Internal divisions within Europe, exemplified by Germany's quick withdrawal from Greenland, weaken collective support for France, which may benefit U.S. interests [4][9] Group 3: Broader Economic Consequences - The escalating U.S.-France tensions have led to significant market reactions, including a 2.1% drop in the S&P 500 and increased gold prices, indicating rising investor anxiety [7] - The burden of U.S. tariffs primarily falls on American consumers and importers, leading to domestic dissatisfaction and complicating the economic landscape [7] - The initial conflict stemmed from Trump's proposal to purchase Greenland, which, after failing, triggered a series of economic retaliations, highlighting the interconnectedness of political and economic strategies [9][11] Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing tensions between Europe and the U.S. may evolve into a broader trade conflict, further destabilizing global financial markets [11] - The situation underscores the need for cooperation and trust among nations to prevent greater economic damage in an increasingly complex international landscape [11]

Group 1 - The article highlights the decline of the US dollar to its lowest level in two weeks due to President Trump's aggressive stance on Greenland and threats of new tariffs on France, leading to increased foreign exchange hedging costs [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has fallen to its weakest level since January 6, indicating a significant downturn in the dollar's performance over the past month [1] - Concerns over potential trade conflicts have risen as Trump threatens tariffs on European countries opposing his Greenland acquisition plan, with a specific proposal for a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne following President Macron's refusal to join a peace initiative [1] Group 2 - The market is experiencing heightened short-term exchange rate volatility, with a notable increase in euro options trading volume reflecting demand for risk hedging and investor sentiment shifting towards betting on euro appreciation [1] - Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid noted that while the market has reacted, further escalation of related comments could lead to greater volatility in exchange rates [1] - Data from US depository trusts and clearing companies indicate a trend towards shorting the dollar, with investors favoring long positions in euro and Australian dollar against the US dollar since the beginning of the week [2]

德国政府发言人周一表示，德国决心以有效的反制措施应对美国进一步加征关税，并警告说美国总统特 朗普的关税威胁是不可接受的，有可能使贸易冲突升级。 "我们决心采取有效的反制措施，包括报复性关税。如果有必要，我们还将准备进一步的经济政策措 施，最早将于2月采取，"柏林发言人说。 "欧盟成员国对此已达成广泛共识。重要的是，欧盟现在要在这个问题上统一战线，"他补充说。 责任编辑：李桐 德国政府发言人周一表示，德国决心以有效的反制措施应对美国进一步加征关税，并警告说美国总统特 朗普的关税威胁是不可接受的，有可能使贸易冲突升级。 "我们决心采取有效的反制措施，包括报复性关税。如果有必要，我们还将准备进一步的经济政策措 施，最早将于2月采取，"柏林发言人说。 "欧盟成员国对此已达成广泛共识。重要的是，欧盟现在要在这个问题上统一战线，"他补充说。 责任编辑：李桐 ...