Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet warned that a federal government "shutdown" could lead to shortages in goods supply, particularly affecting holiday shopping due to reduced flight activities [1] Economic Impact - The economic impact of the federal government "shutdown" has been observed from the first day, with the effects becoming increasingly severe [1] - Reduced flight activities are affecting not only passenger travel but also cargo transportation, which is critical during the holiday season [1] Supply Chain Concerns - The ongoing "shutdown" is likely to result in shortages of goods supply as the holiday season approaches [1]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 38th day, leading to significant disruptions in air travel and economic implications [1][2][5] Group 1: Impact on Air Travel - The government has ordered a reduction in flight capacity at 40 major airports by 10% due to shortages of air traffic controllers and ground staff [3][4] - As of November 7, over 3,500 flights have been delayed and approximately 1,000 flights canceled across the U.S. [2][3] - Major airlines such as American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, and United Airlines are significantly affected, with specific airports like Chicago O'Hare and Dallas-Fort Worth experiencing the most severe disruptions [2][3] Group 2: Legislative Stalemate - The Senate failed to pass the Specific Federal Employee Appropriations Act (S.3012) with a vote of 53 to 43, indicating ongoing partisan divisions [5][6] - Negotiations between Republican and Democratic leaders have stalled, with both sides unable to reach a consensus on funding to restart government operations [6][5] Group 3: Economic Consequences - Experts warn that the shutdown is evolving into an economic disaster, affecting various sectors from public welfare to industrial operations [6][7] - The shutdown is expected to slow down the U.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter, particularly impacting the travel and leisure industry [7] - The lack of timely economic data due to the shutdown is complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates [8]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the U.S. government shutdown may soon come to an end, as it has set a record for the longest shutdown in history [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The current shutdown could become the most economically impactful on record, potentially exceeding the 35-day partial shutdown of 2018-2019, with a broader scope affecting more sectors [2] - Goldman Sachs estimates that the six-week shutdown could reduce the fourth-quarter economic growth rate by 1.15 percentage points to just 1%, with a rebound not expected until early 2026 [2] - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce reported that the shutdown has caused a weekly revenue loss of $3 billion for 65,500 small business contractors [2] Group 2: Government Operations and Assistance Programs - The shutdown has delayed the issuance of food stamp benefits, with the White House announcing the use of emergency funds to cover 50% of SNAP benefits [2] - DoorDash and Gopuff have initiated emergency food responses to assist SNAP recipients affected by the shutdown [3] - The core of the impasse lies in disagreements over healthcare subsidies, with Democrats seeking to extend ACA subsidies while Republicans refuse to attach conditions to the temporary funding bill [3] Group 3: Political Pressure and Compromise - Increasing operational and political pressures may drive lawmakers to reach a compromise, with expectations for a resolution around the second week of November [1] - The missed salary payments for air traffic controllers and airport security personnel could exacerbate pressures, particularly before the second pay date in November [1]

Core Insights - Bond-market traders are increasingly concerned about the economic fallout from the U.S. government's partial shutdown that began on October 1 [1] Group 1 - The partial shutdown has lasted more than a week, indicating a prolonged period of uncertainty in the market [1]