尽管美国历史上持续时间最长的政府停摆已宣告结束，但这场长达 43 天的僵局所引发的后果，才刚刚 开始在美国国内外企业中逐步显现。 那些与联邦政府支出、政府合同以及监管审批高度关联的企业，目前正着手统计停摆对其营收和利润造 成的影响，相关预警从轻言审慎到下调业绩指引不等。 光纤及电信与宽带网络连接产品制造商克利尔菲尔德公司表示，全行业光纤供应受限，再加上联邦政府 425 亿美元的 "宽带公平、接入与部署计划"（简称 BEAD，旨在扩大宽带接入）审批延迟，给社区宽带 市场带来了不确定性。 该公司首席执行官切丽・贝拉内克在财报电话会议上称："政府停摆确实影响了订单量，同时也让我们 预计明年第一季度业绩将较为疲软。" 克利尔菲尔德预计，审批延迟以及此次政府停摆将对私人和联邦 层面的相关投资形成压力，而这些投资在明年初会直接影响其社区宽带业务市场。 将人工智能工具应用于医疗诊断领域的光谱人工智能公司，因预计受政府停摆影响，其与生物医学高级 研究与发展局的合同相关工作会有所缩减，已下调了营收指引。 BTIG 分析师瑞安・齐默尔曼（注：此处指美国食品药品监督管理局，即 FDA）表示："政府停摆向来 是企业的一大顾虑，尤其是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet warned that a federal government "shutdown" could lead to shortages in goods supply, particularly affecting holiday shopping due to reduced flight activities [1] Economic Impact - The economic impact of the federal government "shutdown" has been observed from the first day, with the effects becoming increasingly severe [1] - Reduced flight activities are affecting not only passenger travel but also cargo transportation, which is critical during the holiday season [1] Supply Chain Concerns - The ongoing "shutdown" is likely to result in shortages of goods supply as the holiday season approaches [1]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 38th day, leading to significant disruptions in air travel and economic implications [1][2][5] Group 1: Impact on Air Travel - The government has ordered a reduction in flight capacity at 40 major airports by 10% due to shortages of air traffic controllers and ground staff [3][4] - As of November 7, over 3,500 flights have been delayed and approximately 1,000 flights canceled across the U.S. [2][3] - Major airlines such as American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, and United Airlines are significantly affected, with specific airports like Chicago O'Hare and Dallas-Fort Worth experiencing the most severe disruptions [2][3] Group 2: Legislative Stalemate - The Senate failed to pass the Specific Federal Employee Appropriations Act (S.3012) with a vote of 53 to 43, indicating ongoing partisan divisions [5][6] - Negotiations between Republican and Democratic leaders have stalled, with both sides unable to reach a consensus on funding to restart government operations [6][5] Group 3: Economic Consequences - Experts warn that the shutdown is evolving into an economic disaster, affecting various sectors from public welfare to industrial operations [6][7] - The shutdown is expected to slow down the U.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter, particularly impacting the travel and leisure industry [7] - The lack of timely economic data due to the shutdown is complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates [8]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the U.S. government shutdown may soon come to an end, as it has set a record for the longest shutdown in history [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The current shutdown could become the most economically impactful on record, potentially exceeding the 35-day partial shutdown of 2018-2019, with a broader scope affecting more sectors [2] - Goldman Sachs estimates that the six-week shutdown could reduce the fourth-quarter economic growth rate by 1.15 percentage points to just 1%, with a rebound not expected until early 2026 [2] - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce reported that the shutdown has caused a weekly revenue loss of $3 billion for 65,500 small business contractors [2] Group 2: Government Operations and Assistance Programs - The shutdown has delayed the issuance of food stamp benefits, with the White House announcing the use of emergency funds to cover 50% of SNAP benefits [2] - DoorDash and Gopuff have initiated emergency food responses to assist SNAP recipients affected by the shutdown [3] - The core of the impasse lies in disagreements over healthcare subsidies, with Democrats seeking to extend ACA subsidies while Republicans refuse to attach conditions to the temporary funding bill [3] Group 3: Political Pressure and Compromise - Increasing operational and political pressures may drive lawmakers to reach a compromise, with expectations for a resolution around the second week of November [1] - The missed salary payments for air traffic controllers and airport security personnel could exacerbate pressures, particularly before the second pay date in November [1]

Core Insights - Bond-market traders are increasingly concerned about the economic fallout from the U.S. government's partial shutdown that began on October 1 [1] Group 1 - The partial shutdown has lasted more than a week, indicating a prolonged period of uncertainty in the market [1]