媒体获悉，Johnson对众议院共和党人透露，他希望众议院最早本周三就临时拨款议案表决。之所以选 择周三投票，是为了帮助议员们，在政府关门期间航班延误和取消日益增多的情况下，能够及时从各自 选区返回首都华盛顿。不过，众议院只有在参议院在完成所有投票相关工作的情况下才会在周三进行投 票。 美国联邦政府仍需数日才能正式重新开门。虽然参议院上周日的程序性投票通过了临时拨款法案，但参 议院尚未安排最终表决时间，众议院的议员还需从各选区返回华盛顿投票，这将是他们自9月19日以来 的首次投票。 从最新的进展和安排看，政府关门较有可能在本周末以前结束。参议院计划美东时间11月10日周一上午 11点恢复审议。但共和党领袖John Thune表示需要两党合作才能加快进程，否则可能需要本周大部分时 间完成法定程序。众议院议长Mike Johnson周一表示，一旦参议院通过法案，他将提前36小时通知众议 员返回国会山投票。 白宫周一对参议院的协议表示支持，称这是结束创纪录政府关门的"积极进展"。白宫官员在声明中表 示，特朗普总统从民主党关闭政府第一天起就希望重新开门，白宫参与了参议院融资议案的起草工作。 因政府关门有望结束，美股周 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the U.S. government shutdown may soon come to an end, as it has set a record for the longest shutdown in history [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The current shutdown could become the most economically impactful on record, potentially exceeding the 35-day partial shutdown of 2018-2019, with a broader scope affecting more sectors [2] - Goldman Sachs estimates that the six-week shutdown could reduce the fourth-quarter economic growth rate by 1.15 percentage points to just 1%, with a rebound not expected until early 2026 [2] - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce reported that the shutdown has caused a weekly revenue loss of $3 billion for 65,500 small business contractors [2] Group 2: Government Operations and Assistance Programs - The shutdown has delayed the issuance of food stamp benefits, with the White House announcing the use of emergency funds to cover 50% of SNAP benefits [2] - DoorDash and Gopuff have initiated emergency food responses to assist SNAP recipients affected by the shutdown [3] - The core of the impasse lies in disagreements over healthcare subsidies, with Democrats seeking to extend ACA subsidies while Republicans refuse to attach conditions to the temporary funding bill [3] Group 3: Political Pressure and Compromise - Increasing operational and political pressures may drive lawmakers to reach a compromise, with expectations for a resolution around the second week of November [1] - The missed salary payments for air traffic controllers and airport security personnel could exacerbate pressures, particularly before the second pay date in November [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown is pushing financial markets towards a dangerous edge, but there are signs of potential breakthroughs in bipartisan negotiations, with some Republican lawmakers optimistic about reaching an agreement this week [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On "Black Tuesday," major U.S. markets experienced significant declines, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices recording their largest single-day drops in nearly a month, particularly affecting technology and semiconductor sectors [1]. - Bitcoin fell below the $100,000 mark for the first time since June, leading to over $1.3 billion in liquidations in the cryptocurrency market [1]. - The U.S. dollar index rose for the fifth consecutive trading day, reaching a three-month high, while the British pound, offshore yuan, and commodities faced widespread pressure [1]. Group 2: Liquidity Crisis - The government shutdown has exacerbated a growing liquidity crisis, with the U.S. Treasury's General Account (TGA) balance surging from approximately $300 billion to over $1 trillion in the past three months, effectively withdrawing over $700 billion from the market [2]. - This large-scale liquidity withdrawal has tightened market conditions, comparable to multiple interest rate hikes, with key financing rates under significant stress [2]. - The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) spiked by 22 basis points, indicating that actual financing costs have not decreased despite the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [2]. Group 3: Political Developments - Some Republican senators express confidence that the political deadlock may end this week, with discussions around local elections influencing negotiations [3]. - The impact of the shutdown on public welfare programs is becoming increasingly evident, adding pressure on both parties to reach an agreement [3]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup predict that the government is likely to reopen within the next two weeks [3]. Group 4: Democratic Party Divisions - Internal divisions within the Democratic Party are emerging, with moderate members considering a compromise to temporarily reopen the government in exchange for future commitments from Republicans regarding healthcare subsidies [5]. - This proposed "reopen first, vote later" strategy has angered progressive members, who view it as a betrayal of working families [6].

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached its 35th day, matching the record set from late 2018 to early 2019, significantly impacting various essential sectors such as food assistance, early education, air transport, and healthcare [1] - Millions of Americans relying on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have not received their benefits since November 1, leading to a complete halt in funding distribution for this critical food aid program [1] - The Trump administration announced the allocation of $4.65 billion in emergency funds to maintain approximately half of the SNAP benefits for the month, but the actual timing and amount of aid remain uncertain due to necessary system adjustments in some states [1] - The most affected groups include low-income families and those with young children, facing food shortages and economic pressure, compounded by the closure of federally funded early education institutions [1] - The shutdown has also resulted in federal employees working without pay or being furloughed, causing delays or reductions in public services such as air safety inspections, disease control, and food safety regulation [1] - Analysts warn that if the shutdown continues, the cascading impacts on the economy and public welfare will further escalate [1] Legislative Status - As of now, there is still no agreement between the two parties in Congress regarding the funding bill, and there is no clear expectation for when the federal government will resume operations [2]

Group 1: Impact on SNAP Program - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the depletion of funds for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), affecting millions of Americans who rely on this assistance [3][4] - As of November 1, millions of Americans did not receive their aid, resulting in increased queues at food distribution points across the country [3][4] - SNAP covers approximately 42 million people in the U.S., which is about 1/8 of the total population, with most participants living below the poverty line [3] Group 2: Broader Economic Implications - The shutdown is expected to cause a decline in sales for major food retailers, including Walmart and Smithfield Foods, as consumer spending is impacted [4] - The National Grocers Association has urged Congress to resume government operations and fund the SNAP program to prevent instability in the food retail sector [4] - The shutdown has also led to delays in public services and federal employee salaries, increasing operational pressure on various sectors of American society [4] Group 3: Economic Forecasts - The Congressional Budget Office has warned that the shutdown has already cost the U.S. economy at least $18 billion, with a projected decline of at least one percentage point in GDP growth for the fourth quarter [6]

Core Points - The article discusses the ongoing government shutdown in the U.S., highlighting the critical situation regarding the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) funding, which is set to expire on November 1, affecting 42 million Americans [1][6][7]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Overview - The government shutdown has lasted for 34 days as of November 3, with no clear resolution in sight [1]. - The political agenda in Congress is stalled, with the Senate's next vote on funding expected to occur late on November 3 [1]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The Trump administration misjudged the Democratic Party's resolve during budget negotiations, believing that the shutdown would not last beyond 10 days [2]. - Trump expressed frustration with the Democrats, claiming they are responsible for the shutdown and calling for the Republican Party to use the "nuclear option" to pass funding with a simple majority [3][4]. Group 3: Impact of SNAP Funding Crisis - The SNAP funding interruption is viewed as a critical moment, with millions of families at risk of hunger due to the funding halt [6][7]. - A federal judge ruled that emergency funds must be used to maintain the SNAP program, but Trump indicated that funding distribution might still be delayed [7][8]. Group 4: Broader Economic and Social Impacts - The shutdown is causing significant strain on various sectors, including the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which has issued ground delay orders due to staff shortages [10]. - Vice President Vance warned of potential disasters in air traffic if the shutdown continues into the Thanksgiving holiday [11]. - Millions of government employees have missed their paychecks, and military salaries may face disruption by November 15 [12]. Group 5: Ongoing Negotiations - Despite some progress in bipartisan talks, core disagreements remain, particularly regarding the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies [14]. - The political pressure is mounting on both parties as the negative impacts of the shutdown accumulate, with a crucial vote scheduled for November 3 [14].

Core Points - The U.S. Senate has voted to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, but the actual impact remains limited due to the need for House approval and potential presidential veto [3][5] - The ongoing government shutdown has lasted for 31 days, with significant economic repercussions, including a projected loss of at least $18 billion [7][10] - The aviation industry is facing severe challenges due to the shutdown, with warnings of potential disruptions during the Thanksgiving travel peak [8][10] Tariff Policy - The Senate passed a resolution to end Trump's tariff policy, but the House, controlled by Republicans, is likely to block it [3][5] - The Supreme Court will ultimately decide on the legality of the tariffs, with a hearing scheduled for November 5 [3][5] Government Shutdown - The shutdown has already caused significant economic damage, with estimates of permanent losses ranging from $7 billion to $14 billion depending on its duration [7] - The USDA will stop funding the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) starting November 1, affecting over 41 million low-income families [7] Aviation Industry - The shutdown poses a risk to air travel, with potential staffing shortages among air traffic controllers and security personnel [8] - Airlines are urging Congress to pass a clean continuing resolution to mitigate the impact of the shutdown on air travel [8] Economic Impact - The shutdown is expected to lower GDP growth by 1 to 2 percentage points in Q4, translating to a loss of $28 billion to $39 billion in output [7][10] - Delays in releasing key economic data could hinder the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates [10][12]

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 34th day, with no clear resolution in sight as of November 1, 2023 [1] - Vice President Vance warned of potential disasters in U.S. air traffic if the deadlock continues into late November [2] - The Trump administration misjudged the Democratic Party's resolve in budget negotiations, leading to an extended shutdown [3][4] Economic and Social Impact - The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which provides food assistance to approximately 42 million low-income Americans, saw its funding interrupted on November 1 [5] - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has issued ground delay orders in major cities due to staff shortages, exacerbating delays in the airline industry [6] - Millions of government employees have missed their first full paycheck, with military salaries at risk of being cut off by November 15 [7] Ongoing Negotiations - There was a brief moment of optimism in negotiations, with reports of productive discussions between parties, but core disagreements remain [9] - Democrats insist on negotiating the extension of ACA subsidies before reopening the government, while Republicans demand a vote to reopen the government first [10] - Trump reiterated that he would not meet with Democratic leaders unless they agree to reopen the government first, complicating negotiations further [10]

Core Points - The current U.S. government shutdown is nearing its 30th day and could become the longest in history if it surpasses 35 days, which occurred from December 2018 to January 2019 [1] - The impending funding deadline may force Democrats and Republicans to reach an agreement, but predictions suggest the shutdown could last approximately 47 days, with only a 9% chance of ending before next Tuesday [1] - Analysts believe that as voters begin to feel the real impacts of the shutdown, the difficulty for both parties to maintain their positions will increase, potentially leading to a breakthrough around Thanksgiving [1] Funding and Payroll Deadlines - Key funding and payroll deadlines are approaching, with military pay day on October 31, where military personnel may not receive their salaries on time [3] - The last military payroll on October 15 utilized $8 billion from unused military research funds, raising concerns about the legality of such actions [3] Obamacare and SNAP Program - Critical deadlines for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) are set for November 1, with potential impacts on insurance subsidies and food assistance [4] - Democrats may use the ACA open enrollment period as leverage to negotiate, blaming Republicans for the lack of progress [4] Local Elections - Local elections in New Jersey and Virginia on November 4 could influence the political landscape, with potential implications for the Democrats' healthcare agenda [5] - A significant victory for Democrats could bolster their position in negotiations regarding the shutdown [5] Trump's Role in Negotiations - Trump's return to Washington from Asia may catalyze new negotiations, as his absence has been noted as a barrier to breaking the deadlock [6] Union Pressure - The American Federation of Government Employees is pressuring Congress for a "clean" reopening bill, emphasizing the struggles of federal employees facing missed paychecks [7] House Funding Bill Deadline - A funding bill passed by the House is set to expire on November 21, with discussions ongoing about extending funding to December or even 2026 [8] - The likelihood of the shutdown continuing until Thanksgiving is increasing due to the House being in recess [8] Travel Disruptions - Travel disruptions are already occurring, with flight delays attributed to a shortage of air traffic controllers, which could serve as a catalyst for ending the shutdown if it persists into the holiday travel season [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a procedural vote to advance the "Fiscal Year 2025 Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act," resulting in the continuation of the government shutdown [1] - The government shutdown began on October 1 due to significant disagreements between the Republican and Democratic parties over healthcare-related spending, leading to a depletion of funds for normal government operations [2] - The largest food assistance program, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), is at risk of running out of funds, potentially affecting approximately 42 million Americans who may face food insecurity [2] Group 2 - A coalition of 25 states and Washington D.C. has filed a lawsuit against the federal government, demanding the use of emergency funds to maintain SNAP benefits for November [2] - The lawsuit accuses the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) of violating the Food and Nutrition Act and the Administrative Procedure Act by refusing to utilize emergency reserves for SNAP [2] - USDA Secretary Rollins stated that the department does not have the required $9.2 billion to continue SNAP benefits, highlighting the financial constraints faced by the agency during the shutdown [3]