降息是不是意味着美联储听命于美国总统了？不能这么认为，美国近期的就业数据太拉垮了，即便不考虑政治因素也确实该降息了。 然而，美联储在未来的日子里怕是很难守住"独立性"原则了，特朗普正打算逐步"接手"美联储，而且已经完成了第一步。 9月15日，美国国会通过了对新的美联储理事米兰的任命投票，后者担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席这一联邦政府行政职务的情况下成为美联储理事。这在美 联储的历史上是极其罕见的。 不过，降息幅度只有25个基点，这可远远达不到特朗普的心理预期，他早就喊话要降100个基点，至少也要来个50，才能把经济和股市炒热，为自己政绩加 分。 结果联邦公开市场委员会投票时，只有他亲自任命的新理事米兰支持50个基点降息，其余11票一边倒地选了25，这不是"打脸"，但也绝对不是什么"送礼"。 这说明，美联储的决策还是以经济数据为锚点，没被政治风向牵着鼻子走，特朗普可以喊破喉咙，但真正拍板的那群人，显然更怕经济出乱子，也更在意美 元的全球信誉。 美联储向全球宣布降息，特朗普这次虽胜犹败，他没想到美联储会这样团结。 随着美联储主席鲍威尔的一声"下午好"，美联储在周三的会议上如期降息25基点，强调就业市场的下行风险是此次 ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25% amid concerns over deteriorating employment conditions[5] - The updated economic projections indicate a slight increase in GDP growth expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively, compared to previous forecasts[10] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 remains at 4.5%, while the median projections for 2026 and 2027 have been lowered to 4.4% and 4.3%[10] Employment Risks - August's non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, indicating a significant slowdown in employment growth[22] - The current employment situation shows characteristics of "no job growth," which is rare and suggests a potential economic downturn[30] - The deterioration in the job market is expected to suppress economic growth and weaken resilience, with consumer spending likely to decline as income growth slows[28] Monetary Policy Implications - The current interest rate environment is characterized as a dovish scenario, with expectations for continued rate cuts in the near future[55] - The market anticipates a 4%-6% depreciation of the US dollar index (DXY), targeting a range of 91-93 during this easing cycle[59] - The potential for a rebound in employment post-rate cuts is uncertain, with risks of further job market deterioration[46] Asset Market Trends - In the context of ongoing monetary easing, asset prices are expected to trend positively, with gold likely to see moderate gains amid various macroeconomic scenarios[72] - The stock market is supported by high-risk appetite, as lower bond yields tend to boost equity prices[67] - The long-term interest rates are expected to remain under pressure, with a steeper yield curve anticipated as the Fed continues its easing policy[51]

Group 1 - The focus of global investors is on the Jackson Hole conference, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech will provide critical insights into the future path of U.S. monetary policy [1] - Market expectations indicate a high probability (over 92%) of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, with at least one more cut anticipated within the year [4] - The housing sector has seen significant stock price increases, with leading builders like PulteGroup, Lennar, and D.R. Horton rising between 4.2% and 8.8%, outperforming the S&P 500 index's 1% increase [4] Group 2 - Political pressure from the Trump administration is complicating Powell's decision-making, as the administration has criticized him for not cutting rates quickly enough [5] - Historical precedents show that political interference in Fed decisions can lead to disastrous outcomes, as seen in the 1970s with President Nixon's influence [5] - Current economic data presents a mixed picture, with inflation pressures remaining stubborn, as evidenced by a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the core CPI and a 0.9% rise in the PPI, the largest monthly increase in over three years [6] Group 3 - Powell's upcoming speech is expected to focus on the Fed's monetary policy framework review, which is crucial for maintaining the Fed's long-term independence [7] - Adjustments to the policy framework may include a shift in terminology regarding employment conditions, allowing for more flexibility in rate adjustments based on economic conditions [8] - The speech will not conclude the ongoing debate but will illustrate Powell's balancing act between economic management, political hostility, and decision-making framework enhancement [8]