大家好！9月18日凌晨两点，美联储将基准利率下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%，符合市场预期，重启自去 年12月以来暂停的降息步伐。 美国联邦储备委员会批准了市场普遍预期的降息，并释放信号称，鉴于对美国劳动力市场的担忧加剧， 年内还将再降两次。 联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)以11票赞成、1票反对通过，将基准隔夜拆借利率下调25个基点至4%— 4.25%的区间，反对意见少于华尔街此前预期。 新任理事斯蒂芬·I·米兰(Stephen I. Miran)是唯一的反对者，他主张本次应降息50个基点。 曾被认为可能"另起异议"的两位理事米歇尔·W·鲍曼和克里斯托弗·J·沃勒均投票支持下调25个基点。上 述几位均由特朗普提名。特朗普一直敦促美联储不仅要采取传统的25个基点步幅，还应更快、更激进地 下调联邦基金利率。 【导读】美联储降息25基点 此次会议之前伴随着不同寻常的政治戏剧性，这对一向低调运作、少有异议声音的美联储而言并不常 见。 一年前，在同样担心失业率温和上升可能预示更广泛疲弱的背景下，FOMC曾批准一次性降息50个基 点。特朗普表示，那次降息带有政治动机，是为了在总统选举中帮助其民主党对手卡玛拉·哈里斯 ...

【导读】美联储降息25基点 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好！9月18日凌晨两点， 美联储将基准利率下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%，符合市场预期，重启自去年12月以来暂停的降 息步伐。 美国联邦储备委员会批准了市场普遍预期的降息，并释放信号称，鉴于对美国劳动力市场的担忧加剧，年内还将再降两次。 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以11票赞成、1票反对通过，将基准隔夜拆借利率下调25个基点至4%—4.25%的区间，反对意见 少于华尔街此前预期。 新任理事斯蒂芬·I·米兰（Stephen I. Miran）是唯一的反对者，他主张本次应降息50个基点。 曾被认为可能"另起异议"的两位理事米歇尔·W·鲍曼和克里斯托弗·J·沃勒均投票支持下调25个基点。上述几位均由特朗普提名。 特朗普一直敦促美联储不仅要采取传统的25个基点步幅，还应更快、更激进地下调联邦基金利率。 点阵图还显示， 2026年仅一次降息，明显慢于当前市场对三次降息的定价。 交易员已完全计入本周降息的预期。官员们同时预计 2027年再降一次，随着美联储接近3%的长期中性利率水平。约有六位官员认为长期利率将低于中位数所示的中性水平。 会后发布的宏观经济预测 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve leadership will continue to emphasize political independence [1]

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver is above 8.609, with a slight increase of 0.20% from the opening price of 8.584 per gram [1] - The highest price reached today is 8.609 per gram, while the lowest was 8.540 per gram, indicating a short-term bullish trend in silver [1] Group 2 - Nicholas Colas believes that the probability of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announcing a rate cut after this week's policy meeting is extremely low, similar to the patterns observed with his predecessors [2] - Colas emphasizes that Powell is likely to maintain a hawkish tone as he approaches the end of his term in May next year, aiming to preserve his anti-inflation credibility and political independence [2] - Recent data indicates a cooling trend in both inflation and the economy, while Powell faces political pressure from the Trump administration [2] - The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders expect two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of 2025 [2] - Colas warns that every statement and silence from Powell after the meeting should be interpreted through the lens of maintaining the Fed's political independence [2] Group 3 - The key support zone for silver is identified between 8.300 and 8.390 per gram; if this zone is breached, further downward pressure may occur [2] - A dynamic support level to watch is at 8.310 per gram, while the current resistance zone is between 8.600 and 8.690 per gram [2] - A successful breakout above the resistance zone could lead to testing the critical level of 8.700 per gram in the future [2]