北京时间9月18日凌晨，美国联邦储备系统(以下简称"美联储")宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储自2024年12月以来首次降息。 对于美联储的降息节奏，美国政府早有不满。美国总统特朗普多次在社交平台上批评美联储降息太 慢、力度太小，常挂在他嘴边的理由是"美国不存在通胀"。 在今年8月举行的全球央行年会上，一直对降息持谨慎态度的美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储开 始"将对就业的忧虑置于通胀之上"，被各界视为重要的政策转向信号。从中不难发现，从美国政府到投 资者都认为，通过通胀和就业两大指标评估美联储利率政策理所当然。其背后的逻辑是，通胀和就业共 同支撑起了美联储的政策框架。 不过，这一政策框架并不是从一开始就设计好的，而是在漫长的实践中逐步形成的。 1979年，沃尔克接手美联储时，美国通胀率已经飙升至13%。为应对这一困境，沃尔克采取了大幅 加息的超预期政策——将联邦基金利率一度提高到超20%。这一举措代价巨大，贷款骤减、投资停滞， 美国经济很快陷入深度衰退，失业率一度超过10%。面对席卷全国的抗议浪潮，沃尔克顶住压力，坚持 高利率政策，最终成功遏制了通胀。此举奠定了 ...

施密德进一步解释了美联储区域架构的优势。地区储备银行与本地经济的紧密联系，使政策制定能更精准反映不同区域的 经济状况，这种"贴近地面"的视角在货币政策和监管实践中均发挥着关键作用。他相信，这种结构有助于在维护金融稳定 的同时，保持对经济变化的敏锐感知。 在美联储内部对降息节奏存在分歧的背景下，施密德的立场体现了务实与谨慎的平衡。他既认可适度降息对劳动力市场的 支持作用，又坚持通过持续数据跟踪来校准政策力度。这种态度贯穿于他对经济风险评估的始终，也映射出美联储在复杂 经济环境中的决策逻辑——既非一味宽松，亦非过度收紧，而是通过动态调整寻求最优路径。 施密德特别强调了数据在决策中的核心地位。他指出，未来任何利率调整都将紧密围绕通胀和就业市场的实时数据展开， 而非预设路径。这种基于数据的策略使他更倾向于"少降息"立场，尤其在观察到近期经济数据中隐现的通胀持续风险或突 然放缓迹象时。他认为，政策制定者需持续评估双重使命——稳定物价与促进就业——之间的风险平衡，避免单一目标主 导决策。 在银行监管领域，施密德着重强调了美联储独立性的价值。他指出，独立于政治影响的监管机构能更专注长期金融稳定， 在市场波动中保持灵活应对能 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 关于美联储改革的讨论 美联储的改革可能即将来临，因为国会推出的一项新法案旨在改变该央行的双重使命。 由众议院金融服务委员会主席、共和党人弗伦奇·希尔（French Hill）领导的众议院共和党人，推出了 《2025年价格稳定法案》，该法案将终结双重使命，确保美联储主要专注于控制通货膨胀。 希尔在一份声明中说，"太久以来，美联储一直在相互竞争的目标之间分身乏术。是时候回归到一个清 晰、单一的焦点了：通过抑制通胀来保护美国家庭的钱包。" 1977年，美国国会通过对《1913年联邦储备法》的修正案，正式引入了确保最大化就业和物价稳定的双 重使命。这项更广泛的立法倡议出台之际，正值美国经济面临更高失业率、不断上升的通胀和波动的 GDP增长率的困境。 现在，一群共和党议员表示，该机构多年来不断扩大的监管和监督范围，正妨碍央行稳定物价的努力， 并威胁到央行的独立性。 货币政策、国债市场韧性和经济繁荣工作组负责人、共和党众议员弗兰克·卢卡斯（Frank Lucas） 说，"通过不负责任的国际协议或其他定义不明确的第三和第四个使命来扩大其监管范围，分散了美联 储做好其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that Powell is engaging in a high-risk policy gamble by choosing to cut interest rates without clear signs of an impending recession, marking his third attempt at such a delicate maneuver during his tenure [2][3]. Economic Context - The decision to lower interest rates is largely attributed to a significant slowdown in the labor market, with revised data showing that the average job growth for three months in August dropped from an initial report of 150,000 to 29,000, indicating substantial underlying weakness [3]. - Some economists believe that the Federal Reserve's actions, including the recent 50 basis point cut, are not aggressive enough to address the current economic challenges [3]. Structural Changes and Risks - There are concerns that the Federal Reserve may misinterpret structural changes in the economy as temporary cyclical weakness, which could lead to excessive rate cuts [4]. - Policies from the Trump administration, such as immigration restrictions and increased tariffs, may be permanently altering the economy's production capacity, raising fears about the risks of over-lowering interest rates [4]. Political Pressure and Consensus - Powell faces significant political pressure while trying to maintain consensus within the Federal Reserve, which is a major test of his leadership [5]. - Despite differing views on the economic outlook, Powell has managed to keep the consensus intact, with three regional Federal Reserve bank presidents supporting the recent rate cut [5]. Future Challenges and Opportunities - The Federal Reserve is likely to face more contentious debates regarding interest rate predictions, with some members believing no further cuts are necessary this year [7]. - Powell acknowledges the dual risks of labor market weakness and persistent inflation, indicating that there is no risk-free path forward [7]. Historical Context and Potential Outcomes - The article outlines three potential outcomes of Powell's policy gamble, including the ideal scenario of a "soft landing" similar to the mid-1990s, the risk of igniting inflation similar to the late 1960s, and the historical failures of rate cuts to prevent recessions in 1990, 2001, and 2007 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking its first reduction in 2025, following three cuts in 2024, amid a backdrop of slowing economic growth and rising inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25% [1]. - The decision reflects concerns over a weakening labor market and rising inflation, with the Fed acknowledging the dual risks of economic conditions [2][3]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates expectations for two more rate cuts within the year, with a median forecast for the rate to be 3.6% by the end of 2025 [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic activity in the U.S. is showing signs of slowing, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains at historically low levels [1]. - Inflation rates are elevated and persistent, with the Fed emphasizing the need to balance between supporting employment and controlling inflation [2][3]. - The market anticipates a high probability of further rate cuts in the coming months, with an 87.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October [2].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25% [1] - The Fed highlighted a slowdown in economic activity and a slight increase in unemployment, while inflation remains relatively high [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the current economic environment presents dual risks, with a weakening labor market and persistent inflation [2] - Powell indicated that the focus of monetary policy is shifting towards employment risks, acknowledging a significant slowdown in job growth [3] - The decision to lower rates by 25 basis points received broad support, with only one official advocating for a larger cut [4] - Powell stated that future policy decisions will be data-dependent and will not follow a predetermined path [4] - The Fed is undergoing organizational changes, including a 10% reduction in staff, returning to levels seen a decade ago [5][10] Economic Indicators - The overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, with core PCE increasing by 2.9% [2][7] - Commodity inflation accelerated to 1.2% over the past year, while service inflation continues to decline [2] - Job growth has significantly slowed, with hiring fatigue and difficulties for marginalized groups indicating a cooling labor market [3][7] Policy Outlook - The Fed is adopting a "risk management" approach to rate cuts, indicating that future policy will be determined in a step-by-step manner based on evolving data [8] - Powell noted that the current level of reserves is sufficient and does not believe the balance sheet has a significant impact on the economy [9] Institutional Reforms - The Fed is willing to accept constructive criticism but does not see the need for formal reviews of its operations [5] - Powell reaffirmed the importance of the Fed's independence from political influences in its decision-making process [6]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, indicating a shift in focus towards managing risks associated with the labor market and inflation dynamics [1][4]. Economic Indicators - Economic activity in the U.S. is expected to slow down in the first half of 2025, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains at historically low levels [1]. - The overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, while the core PCE increased by 2.9% [2][7]. Labor Market Dynamics - Job growth has significantly slowed, with new job creation falling below the breakeven rate needed to maintain stable unemployment [3][8]. - There are signs of a cooling labor market, including weak hiring and difficulties for marginalized groups in finding jobs [3][8]. Policy Adjustments - The Fed's current policy is characterized as a "risk management decision," balancing the dual mandate of employment and inflation control [2][9]. - Future policy decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, relying heavily on incoming data [4][9]. Financial Stability - The overall financial condition of banks and households is stable, with default rates not reaching concerning levels, although ongoing monitoring is necessary [5]. - The Fed is undergoing organizational changes, including a 10% workforce reduction, returning to staffing levels seen a decade ago [5][11]. Independence and Governance - The Fed emphasizes its decision-making process is based on data rather than political influences, maintaining its independence as a core principle [6].

【导读】美联储降息25基点 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好！9月18日凌晨两点， 美联储将基准利率下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%，符合市场预期，重启自去年12月以来暂停的降 息步伐。 美国联邦储备委员会批准了市场普遍预期的降息，并释放信号称，鉴于对美国劳动力市场的担忧加剧，年内还将再降两次。 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以11票赞成、1票反对通过，将基准隔夜拆借利率下调25个基点至4%—4.25%的区间，反对意见 少于华尔街此前预期。 新任理事斯蒂芬·I·米兰（Stephen I. Miran）是唯一的反对者，他主张本次应降息50个基点。 曾被认为可能"另起异议"的两位理事米歇尔·W·鲍曼和克里斯托弗·J·沃勒均投票支持下调25个基点。上述几位均由特朗普提名。 特朗普一直敦促美联储不仅要采取传统的25个基点步幅，还应更快、更激进地下调联邦基金利率。 点阵图还显示， 2026年仅一次降息，明显慢于当前市场对三次降息的定价。 交易员已完全计入本周降息的预期。官员们同时预计 2027年再降一次，随着美联储接近3%的长期中性利率水平。约有六位官员认为长期利率将低于中位数所示的中性水平。 会后发布的宏观经济预测 ...

今日周三(9月17日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于9940一线下方，今日开盘于10128元/千克，截至发稿，白银期货暂 报9916元/千克，下跌1.67%，最高触及10146元/千克，最低下探9890元/千克，目前来看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看跌 走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储将于美东时间9月17日下午2点（北京时间9月18日凌晨2点）公布最新利率决定。 根据CME FedWatch工具显示，降息25个基点的概率为96%，该工具还指出，大幅降息50个基点的概率仅有4%。 经济学家还将密切关注美联储是否会就2025年后续两次会议（10月与12月）的降息路径提供前瞻指引。 美联储肩负所谓"双重使命"，即保持低通胀的同时实现充分就业。 但这两个目标可能存在冲突：通胀上升需要美联储通过加息来抑制，而加息会提高企业和消费者的借贷成本从而压制 支出；反之，应对高失业率的最有效手段是降息，因为降低利率可减少企业扩张成本并促进招聘。 沪银周二在高点10178附近走出了下跌空间，最低在10031，虽然空间不大，但没有之前那么强势继续走高。目前收盘 在10070附近，看今天美联储午夜公布的利率决议的变化，今天白银预计能走出一波下跌空 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cautiously lower policy interest rates in the short term, as indicated by Richard Clarida from Pinhao Investment [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference did not disappoint the market, and the revised monetary policy framework was not unexpected [1] - Clarida, who served as Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve from 2018 to 2022, emphasized the Fed's long-term commitment to its dual mandate, with only minor clarifications made to the monetary policy framework [1]