1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The theoretical supply pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively large, and the current breeding profit has turned negative across the board. The spot market has entered a period of concentrated decline. Under pessimistic sentiment, the premium of the near - month contract on the futures market has been continuously squeezed out. - Considering that the price decline started earlier this year, it has released some risks before the Spring Festival to a certain extent, making the themes of inventory accumulation and consumption in the later period more prominent. Pay attention to when the pessimistic sentiment eases. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the far - month contracts. - As the premium space of the near - month contract is squeezed out, the operation strategy should change from shorting on rallies to reducing short positions. After the spot price stabilizes, consider the possibility of a 1 - 3 positive spread, while maintaining a reverse spread strategy for the far - end contracts [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: The market supply pressure has been concentratedly realized, and the consumption before and after holidays fell short of expectations. Since September, the live - hog spot price has dropped significantly. The weight has not decreased significantly, the fat - to - standard price difference has increased slightly month - on - month but the absolute level is limited, and the number of pens of small - scale farmers has declined and is lower year - on - year. The average price in Henan dropped by 2.52 yuan to 11.3 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 2.1 yuan to 11.16 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong by 2.7 yuan to 12.02 yuan/kg. The plan completion rate in September was low, and the supply in October is still sufficient. The theoretical and planned slaughter scale is large, and the consumption has declined slightly month - on - month. The price is expected to be weak in consolidation, with a possible slight rebound in the second half of the month as the temperature drops [11]. - **Supply Side**: In August, the official sow inventory was 40.36 million heads, a slight decrease of 60,000 heads month - on - month (0.1%), still 3.5% more than the normal sow inventory. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. There is a strong expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction, which may improve the supply situation next year. The data from different sources shows different trends in sow inventory changes, and more evidence is needed to determine whether the capacity has been effectively reduced. From the piglet data, the basic supply from September to November has a significant increase, but the continuous weight reduction of large - scale farms from June to August has advanced part of the supply, which may partially offset the current supply pressure. The current market still shows a clear situation of oversupply [11]. - **Demand Side**: At the beginning of September, with the start of the new semester, the temperature drop in the middle and late September, and the stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, there may be marginal improvement in demand. However, after the National Day, the demand will enter a low - season again until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side strategy, it is recommended to wait and see. For the arbitrage strategy, take profit on the 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 reverse spreads on dips, and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread. The profit - to - loss ratio is 2:1, the recommended period is 2 months, and the core driving factors include policies, weight, basic supply, and fat - to - standard price difference [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: The spot price has dropped significantly since September due to concentrated supply pressure and lower - than - expected consumption. The prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong have all decreased. The price is expected to be weak in October, with a possible slight rebound in the second half of the month [22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price has dropped sharply, the basis has decreased significantly, and the month - to - month spread follows the reverse - spread logic [25]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In August, the official sow inventory decreased slightly month - on - month but was still higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow production capacity may lead to a weaker market in 2025. The effectiveness of capacity reduction needs more evidence [33]. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From the piglet data, there is an increase in supply from September to November, but the weight reduction of large - scale farms from June to August has advanced part of the supply, which may offset some pressure. The current market shows oversupply [42]. - **Sow Culling and Sales**: The proportion of small - pig slaughter has increased slightly, indicating a slight resurgence of pig diseases. The proportion of large - pig slaughter is not high, and attention should be paid to the fat - to - standard price difference [45]. - **Trading and Average Weight after Slaughter**: The slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms has started to stabilize and rebound, showing an oversupply situation [49]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume**: There may be marginal improvement in demand at the beginning of September and during the holidays, but it will enter a low - season after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [58]. - **Slaughter Capacity Utilization and Gross Margin**: No specific data analysis is provided in the summary, but relevant data charts are presented. - **Price Spread and Price - Volume Relationship**: No specific data analysis is provided in the summary, but relevant data charts are presented. - **Fresh - Frozen Price Spread and Fresh - Sales Rate**: No specific data analysis is provided in the summary, but relevant data charts are presented. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost has been continuously declining. However, the pig price is the weakest in the same period in recent years, and there has been an overall loss this year [69]. 3.6 Inventory Side - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: The frozen - product inventory is in a state of slow recovery [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current pig market shows a significant oversupply situation. Spot prices are falling rapidly due to large - scale group and散户 sales, and the future spot trend remains pessimistic. - The fundamentals in 2025 may be weaker than in 2024 due to the continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year. However, the expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction is strong, which may improve the supply situation next year. - Demand may improve marginally at the beginning and middle of September due to school openings, temperature drops, and festival preparations, but it will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches. - The short - term trend of the futures market is likely to remain weak. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts on rebounds and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks. [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: The oversupply has led to a spread of pessimistic sentiment, with domestic pig prices accelerating their decline last week. Group and散户 sales have increased supply pressure, and the future spot trend is still pessimistic. For example, the average price in Henan dropped by 0.5 yuan to 12.96 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 0.84 yuan to 12.36 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong by 1.2 yuan to 13.36 yuan/kg. - **Supply Side**: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, 3.6% more than the normal level. The supply from September to November is expected to increase, but the weight reduction by group factories from June to August may partially offset the supply pressure. - **Demand Side**: Demand may improve marginally in early - mid September but will decline after the National Day. - **Strategy**: Maintain the idea of shorting near - month contracts and conducting reverse arbitrage. For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and short on rebounds for the 11 and 01 contracts. For arbitrage, conduct 3 - 5 and 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage. [11][13] 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - **Spot Trend**: The oversupply has led to a rapid decline in pig prices last week, with group and散户 sales increasing supply pressure. The future spot trend is pessimistic. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price has dropped significantly, the basis has declined, and the month - to - month spread follows the reverse arbitrage logic. - **Prices of Piglets and Sows**: No specific analysis of price trends is provided in the text, only relevant price charts are presented. [22][25] 3.3. Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, 10,000 less than the previous month but still 3.6% more than the normal level. The effectiveness of capacity reduction needs more evidence. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From September to November, the basic supply will increase, but the weight reduction by group factories from June to August may partially offset the supply pressure. - **Slaughter of Different - Sized Pigs**: The proportion of small - pig slaughter has slightly increased, indicating a slight increase in pig diseases. The proportion of large - pig slaughter is not high, and attention should be paid to the fat - standard price difference. - **Other Indicators**: Slaughter volume is increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms is starting to stabilize and rise, showing an oversupply situation. [33][42][45] 3.4. Demand Side - Demand may improve marginally in early - mid September due to school openings, temperature drops, and festival preparations. However, it will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches. [58] 3.5. Cost and Profit - Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost is continuously declining. However, pig prices are the weakest in the same period over the years, and the industry has suffered full - scale losses this year. [69] 3.6. Inventory Side - The frozen - product inventory is slowly rising. [74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - continuous pressure release and bottom - support sentiment have led to a temporary stabilization of the spot price. The futures market has shown an overall trend of rising and then falling due to news. The market is waiting for the supply - demand game at the end of the third quarter. With the expectation of both increasing supply and demand, the position of the fat - standard price difference and whether there will be hoarding at that time are crucial. The market may fall into a range - bound oscillation. In the short term, focus on low - buying, in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure, and for the far - month contracts, adopt the reverse - spread strategy [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic pig prices generally rose slightly and then fell, showing a narrow - range fluctuation. The average weight remained stable during the week, with local weight - reduction continuing and some signs of hoarding and reluctant selling. The fat - standard price difference rebounded slightly, and the slaughter volume increased month - on - month. Specifically, the average price in Henan rose by 0.1 yuan to 13.9 yuan/kg, reaching a maximum of 14 yuan/kg during the week; the average price in Sichuan rose by 0.15 yuan to 13.56 yuan/kg, with a maximum of 13.66 yuan/kg; the average price in Guangdong fell by 0.44 yuan to 14.96 yuan/kg. The weight - reduction behavior of the breeding side is approaching the end, the slaughter rhythm has slowed down, and there is a slight warming space for the demand side with the cooling in the north. It is expected that pig prices will be stable month - on - month this week, with some areas possibly rising slightly [11]. - **Supply Side**: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million heads, a slight month - on - month increase, still 3.7% more than the normal sow inventory. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. However, there is a strong expectation of forced capacity reduction from the policy side, which may improve next year's supply under the background of no obvious losses this year. In the next few months, focus on the implementation of policy - driven capacity reduction. From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase in the basic supply from September to the end of the year. However, the continuous weight - reduction of group farms from June to August has led to some pre - release of supply, which may partially offset the supply pressure at that time. Pay attention to where this wave of weight goes and whether there will be inventory accumulation at the end of the third quarter. In the short - term data, the slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, the weight of large - scale farms has been continuously declining, and the current market shows a state of increasing sales volume by reducing prices [11]. - **Demand Side**: The overall consumption environment is weak, and the change in consumption habits is unfavorable for pork consumption. Year - on - year, pork consumption has been declining, but month - on - month, pay attention to the pulse effect of festival consumption on pig prices [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, recommend buying on dips for the November and January contracts with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 1 - 2 months, with the core driving logic being inventory reduction, hoarding, and the fat - standard price difference. For arbitrage, recommend a 3 - 5 reverse spread with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 2 months, with the core driving logic being policies, weight, basic supply, and the fat - standard price difference [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: Last week, domestic pig prices generally rose slightly and then fell, showing a narrow - range fluctuation. The average weight remained stable during the week, with local weight - reduction continuing and some signs of hoarding and reluctant selling. The fat - standard price difference rebounded slightly, and the slaughter volume increased month - on - month. The price trends in different regions vary. The price is expected to be stable month - on - month this week, with some areas possibly rising slightly [22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price trend is weak, but there is an expectation of a bottom - out rebound in the later part of August. The month - spread fluctuates within a narrow range [25]. - **Piglet and Sow Prices**: The report provides historical price trends of piglets, reserve sows, culled sows, and the ratio of culled sows to live pigs, but no specific analysis is given [27][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million heads, a slight month - on - month increase, still 3.7% more than the normal sow inventory. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. There is a strong expectation of forced capacity reduction from the policy side, and in the next few months, focus on the implementation of policy - driven capacity reduction [33]. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase in the basic supply from September to the end of the year. However, the continuous weight - reduction of group farms from June to August has led to some pre - release of supply, which may partially offset the supply pressure at that time. Pay attention to inventory accumulation at the end of the third quarter. The proportion of small - pig slaughter has slightly increased, indicating a slight resurgence of pig diseases, and pay attention to its persistence. The proportion of large - pig slaughter is not high, and pay attention to the trend of the fat - standard price difference. The short - term data shows that the slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, the weight of large - scale farms has been continuously declining, and the market shows a state of increasing sales volume by reducing prices [42][45][49]. - **Import and Pig Feed Month - on - Month**: The report provides historical data on pork imports and pig feed month - on - month changes, but no specific analysis is given [51]. - **Secondary Fattening and Pigsty Utilization**: The report provides data on the proportion of secondary - fattening sales and pigsty utilization rate, but no specific analysis is given [53]. 3.4 Demand Side - The overall consumption environment is weak, and the change in consumption habits is unfavorable for pork consumption. Year - on - year, pork consumption has been declining, but month - on - month, pay attention to the pulse effect of festival consumption on pig prices. The report also provides data on slaughter volume, slaughtering start - up rate, gross profit, price - spread, fresh - frozen price difference, and fresh - sales rate, but no in - depth analysis is given [58]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost has slightly rebounded after reaching the bottom, and the overall cost is relatively low year - on - year. Affected by the lag effect of the low cost, although pig prices are weak, the breeding profit is the highest in recent years [69]. 3.6 Inventory Side - The frozen - product inventory is moderately low but is in a slow recovery state [74].