04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 区间思路 生猪周报 2025/08/16 010-60167188 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：上周国内猪价普遍小涨后回落，整体窄幅波动，周内均重维持平稳，局部降重继续进行，局部有压栏惜售迹象，周内肥标差小幅反 弹，屠宰量环比仍增加；具体看，河南均价周涨0.1元至13.9元/公斤，周内最高14元/公斤，四川均价周涨0.15元至13.56元/公斤，周内最 高13.66元/公斤，广东均价周落0.44元至14.96元/公斤；养殖端降重行为接近尾声，出栏节奏放缓，需求端随着北方降温存在小幅回暖空间， 预计本周猪价环比平稳，局部或小幅上涨。 ◆ 供应端：6月官方母猪存栏为4043万头，环比小升，仍比正常母猪保有量多3.7%，去年以来母猪产能的持续增加，或导致25年基本面弱于24 年；不过，当前政策端强制去产能的预期较强，或在今年无明显亏损的背景下改善明年的 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that the hog market will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of hogs is expected to increase gradually until December, making it difficult for hog prices to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support hog prices to some extent. Given that the LH2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price and short - term price fluctuations are limited, the report suggests a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3. Summary by Section Market Dynamics - On July 16, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 444 lots. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the LH2509 contract is oscillating and adjusting. - The main contract (LH2509) added 1,125 lots in positions today, with approximately 69,000 lots held. The highest price was 14,250 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,000 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,010 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of hogs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The demand in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatory. - The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for hog prices as the second and third quarters are not peak consumption seasons. The bullish logic includes the potential for an increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and the fact that although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for hogs [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. - The core logic is that hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly due to sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will support hog prices. Since the LH2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price and short - term price fluctuations are limited, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Market Overview - National hog slaughter price on July 16 was 14.43 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg or 0.76% from the previous day. - Futures prices of various contracts declined on July 16 compared to the previous day, with the 09 contract down 240 yuan/ton or 1.68%. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 180 yuan/ton or 50% to 540 yuan/ton [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - CBOT soybean futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, with Brazilian discounts oscillating at the bottom. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract has limited room for further decline, and it is advisable to enter the market at low prices. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to be bearish, and the low level of the futures price may shorten the downward space of the basis [17]. - In the short term, the supply and demand of live pigs are expected to increase slightly, remaining in a slightly loose balance. Attention should be paid to the timing of potential supply release, which may cause prices to continue to be under pressure. However, continuous price declines may trigger farmers' reluctance to sell, hindering the price decline [18][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - The main DCE soybean meal 2509 contract rose 0.10% to 2889 yuan/ton, with coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes down 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The main DCE live pig 2509 contract rose 0.04% to 13690 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live pigs was 14.45 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract closed unchanged at 1051 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Production Areas - In the US Midwest, it was dry on the weekend and will see rainfall again this week. In the west, there were scattered showers until last Friday, dry on Saturday and Sunday, and scattered showers on Monday. Temperatures varied. In the east, there were scattered showers until Saturday, mostly dry on Sunday, and scattered showers on Monday. Temperatures also fluctuated. The 6 - 10 - day outlook shows scattered showers from Tuesday to Thursday and mostly dry from Friday to Saturday. The southeastern low - pressure will bring showers to the east, and another weather system will bring more rainfall potential [4]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On May 16, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 646 million tons, up 57 million tons week - on - week. The soybean meal inventory was 12 million tons, up 2 million tons week - on - week [5]. - On May 19, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 178,000 tons, up 90,000 tons from the previous day. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill startup rate was 60.67%, up 3.17% from the previous day [5]. - On May 20, the import cost of US soybeans was 4553 yuan, up 6 yuan; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3660 yuan, up 5 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3570 yuan, up 50 yuan [5]. - On May 20, the daily slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises' live pigs was 269,369, up 2.67% [5]. - On May 20, the daily slaughter volume of key slaughtering enterprises' live pigs was 122,982, down 0.26% [6]. - In March 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.68 million tons of soybeans, producing 3.55 million tons of soybean meal and 960,000 tons of soybean oil. The ending inventory of soybeans was 2578 tons, soybean meal was 2.2 million tons, and soybean oil was 320,000 tons [6]. - As of May 17, the harvesting rate of 2024/25 Brazilian soybeans was 98.9% [6]. - As of May 18, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 66%, and the emergence rate was 34% [6]. - In the first three weeks of May, Brazil exported 7,836,693.24 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 712,426.66 tons, up 11.34% from the same period last year [7]. - China's imported soybeans' customs clearance has accelerated from over 20 days to about 10 days. It is expected that 13 million tons will arrive in May, 12 million tons in June, and 9.5 million tons in July [7]. 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts including the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, rapeseed meal prices in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, live pig prices in Henan and DCE live pig futures, live pig basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory [10][11][14][15]. 5. Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean export weakness and good sowing weather suppress the rebound of US soybeans, but concerns about Argentine soybean production cuts provide short - term support. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract has limited downward space. The supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose, and the inventory pressure may reach its maximum from late June to July. The spot price of soybean meal is bearish [17]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply has slightly increased, and the medium - term supply pressure is increasing. The terminal demand has declined, but the Dragon Boat Festival备货 may boost demand briefly. In the short term, supply and demand are in a slightly loose balance, and the price may be under pressure [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for the pig industry is "oscillating," with a "neutral" rating for supply, a "bearish" rating for demand, a "neutral" rating for profit, and a "bullish" rating for price and volume [3] Core Viewpoints - The pig industry may enter a pressure cycle in 2025, and prices will face long - term downward pressure, but there may be short - term support for pig prices in the second quarter due to disease disturbances and breeding sentiment [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - This week, the basis of live pigs increased slightly, and the futures were in a slight discount state, limiting the downward space. The spread between near - and far - term live pig futures increased slightly and was at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The net short positions of institutional investors in the main live pig futures contract were decreasing [3] Supply Analysis - The average weight of commercial pig sales of sample breeding enterprises this week was basically flat, the spread between standard and fat pigs widened slightly, and the proportion of large pigs continued to increase. Since this year, the spread between near - and far - term live pig futures has remained high, and the term structure is almost horizontal, reflecting the market's balanced expectation of the supply - demand relationship. In the long - term, the hedging behavior dominated by funds in the pig industry strengthens the linkage between futures and spot, and the pricing of long - term futures contracts mainly revolves around costs. The near - term contracts have significantly enhanced resistance to decline due to disease disturbances and breeding sentiment [3] Demand Analysis - This week, slaughter orders decreased slightly, slaughter profits increased slightly, the fresh meat efficiency was basically flat, and the frozen product inventory rebounded slightly and was at a low level in the same period of the past four years. After the May Day holiday, pork purchases and sales returned to rationality, the purchasing and sales enthusiasm in cities decreased, orders of mainstream slaughtering enterprises decreased, and the operating rate gradually declined [3] Profit Analysis - The self - breeding and self - raising breeding profit is around the break - even point, and the pig - grain ratio is significantly higher than the average level in the same period of the past four years. In 2024, Muyuan Co., Ltd. had a net profit of 17.881 billion yuan, ranking first, with a year - on - year increase of 519.42%. In 2024, Muyuan significantly reduced the pig breeding cost from 15.8 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 13 yuan/kg in December, with an average annual breeding cost of about 14 yuan/kg. In 2025, Muyuan further reduced the cost, and the full cost of pig breeding in March has dropped to 12.5 yuan/kg, with a target of reducing the average annual cost to 12 yuan/kg in 2025 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The weekly rating for the pig industry is "oscillating" [2] Core Viewpoints - Based on the cycle of the pig industry's fundamentals, the pig farming industry in 2025 may enter a pressure cycle, and prices will still face long - term downward pressure. However, in the short term, due to the impact of diseases and the boost of farming sentiment, pig prices in the second quarter may have short - term support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - **1.1 Pig Spot Price**: The report mentions the Henan pig price and its seasonal chart, but no specific data analysis is provided [3][4] - **1.2 Pig Basis**: The pig basis fluctuated within a narrow range this week, and the futures were in a slight discount state, limiting the downward space. The near - far spread of pig futures has increased slightly and is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The net short position of institutional investors in the main pig futures contract is in an oscillatory state [2] - **1.3 Pig Spread**: The report shows the spread of each pig futures contract, but no specific analysis is given [8][9] - **1.4 Futures Institutional Net Position**: It presents the long - short difference and ratio of institutional positions in the September pig futures contract, with data from Wind, but no in - depth analysis [11][12][13] Supply Analysis - **2.1 Breeding Sows Inventory**: In March, the official breeding sow inventory was 40.39 million, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%. Since May last year, the sow production capacity has continued to increase, and it is deduced that the theoretical slaughter volume may continue to be large in the second quarter of this year [2] - **2.2 Piglet Supply**: It shows the price ratio of piglets to pigs in Henan and the number of newborn piglets (in ten thousand heads), with data from WIND, but no specific analysis [17][18][20] - **2.3 Pig Slaughter**: The average weight of commercial pig slaughter in sample farming enterprises increased slightly this week, and the proportion of large pigs continued to increase. The report also provides the seasonal chart of the average weight of commercial pig slaughter and the pig slaughter structure, with data from Mysteel [2][23][24] - **2.4 Standard - Fat Price Spread**: The standard - fat price spread widened slightly this week, and the report shows its daily and seasonal charts [2][25][26] Demand Analysis - **3.1 Pig Slaughter**: This week, the slaughter orders increased slightly, the slaughter profit decreased slightly, the fresh meat efficiency continued to decline, and the frozen product inventory increased slightly and is at a low level in the same period of the past four years [2] - **3.2 Frozen Product Inventory**: The willingness of secondary fattening to enter the market at low prices has strengthened recently, and the frozen product inventory has also increased significantly, which may provide short - term support for pig prices in the second quarter. The report shows the capacity utilization rate of frozen products and fresh meat efficiency of key slaughtering enterprises and the seasonal chart of the capacity utilization rate of frozen products, with data from Mysteel [2][31][32] - **3.3 Substitutes**: It shows the seasonal charts of the price ratio of pork to eggs and vegetables, with data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, but no specific analysis [33][35] Profit Analysis - **4.1 Farming Profit**: The self - breeding and self - raising farming profit is near the break - even point, and the pig - grain price ratio is significantly higher than the average level in the same period of the past four years [2] - **4.2 Pig - Grain Price Ratio**: It shows the pig - grain price ratio in large and medium - sized Chinese cities and its seasonal chart, with data from the National Development and Reform Commission [40][41][42]