Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Core Views - The current slaughter scale and future theoretical出栏量 remain high, and the weight has decreased slightly during this decline. In the medium term, with a significantly high supply pressure, pig prices are likely to fall rather than rise. In the short term, due to the resonance of multiple factors and the persistence of factors supporting the spot rebound, the futures market is prone to fluctuations due to changes in market drivers under high positions. A short - term rebound is expected. Mid - term, one can gradually establish reverse spread positions during the rebound and wait for the pressure level to arrive before gradually short - selling [11][12]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait for the 01 and 03 contracts to rebound and then short - sell at high prices for the unilateral strategy, and gradually establish 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 reverse spreads for the arbitrage strategy [13]. Summary by Section 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Due to the warming demand after the temperature drop, along with the reluctance of small - scale farmers to sell and the entry of second - round fattening, domestic pig prices continued to rise last week, but the increase was small, and a wait - and - see sentiment emerged after the price increase. The slaughter volume remained high during the week. Group farms accelerated their sales, with a high plan completion rate, while the reluctance of small - scale farmers to sell increased, and the number of pigs in pens rose. The spread between fat and standard pigs continued to widen. The average price in Henan rose by 0.56 yuan to 11.96 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 0.7 yuan to 11.6 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong by 0.2 yuan to 11.72 yuan/kg. The group's plan completion rate has been high this month, and there is room for a short - term reduction in supply near the end of the month, which supports prices. The demand side is stimulated by the temperature drop, with high slaughter orders, and there is still enthusiasm for second - round fattening in some areas. Pig prices may still rise slightly from next week to the end of the month [11][22]. - **Supply Side**: In September, the official sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, still 3.5% more than the normal sow inventory. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weak fundamental situation this year. However, there is a strong expectation of forced capacity reduction on the policy side, which may improve the supply next year in the context of no significant losses this year. The implementation of policy - driven capacity reduction needs to be closely monitored in the coming months. According to the published data, the month - on - month decrease in sow inventory in September was 0.33% according to Steel Union and 0.84% according to Yongyi, indicating that capacity reduction is still slow. From the perspective of piglet data, there is a significant increase in the basic supply from now to March next year. However, the continuous weight reduction of group farms from June to August has led to some pre - emptive supply, which may partially offset the current supply pressure. It is necessary to focus on where this wave of weight goes and whether there will be inventory accumulation at the beginning of the fourth quarter. In the short term, the market still has a large and excessive supply, as the slaughter volume has remained high after the National Day, the frozen meat inventory has continued to rise, and the average trading weight of live pigs is larger year - on - year and rising month - on - month [11]. - **Demand Side**: After the National Day, the demand side has shown some improvement. On the one hand, low prices have stimulated consumption, and the entry of frozen meat and second - round fattening has increased. On the other hand, basic consumption has increased after the temperature drop. However, the temperature drop from October to November is limited, and there is still some time until the Spring Festival. A significant increase in consumption will have to wait until December [11][59]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the unilateral strategy, wait for the 01 and 03 contracts to rebound and then short - sell at high prices, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended cycle of 0.5 - 1 months, driven by supply, weight, and consumer demand. For the arbitrage strategy, gradually establish 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 reverse spreads, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended cycle of 2 months, driven by policies, weight, basic supply, and the spread between fat and standard pigs [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price Trend**: Pig prices continued to rise slightly last week due to demand warming, reluctance of small - scale farmers to sell, and second - round fattening. The average prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong all increased. Pig prices may still rise slightly from next week to the end of the month [11][22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price rebounded slightly, but the futures market had a weak expectation. The basis has converged, and the monthly spread still tends towards reverse spreads [25]. - **Piglet and Sow Prices**: Relevant price trend charts are provided, but no specific analysis of price trends is given in the text. 3. Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In September, the official sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, still 3.5% more than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weak fundamental situation this year. The expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction is strong, but capacity reduction is still slow [33]. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From the piglet data, there is a significant increase in the basic supply from now to March next year, but the pre - emptive supply from group farms may partially offset the current pressure. The short - term market has a large and excessive supply due to high slaughter volume, rising frozen meat inventory, and increasing average trading weight [43][50]. - **Sow Culling and Sales**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis of trends is given in the text. - **Theoretical Slaughter Volume**: There is a significant increase in the basic supply from now to March next year, but the pre - emptive supply may partially offset the pressure [43]. - **Proportion of Small and Large Pigs in Slaughter**: The low proportion of small pigs indicates limited impact of diseases, and the low proportion of large pigs means a limited number of fat pigs [46]. - **Trading and Average Weight after Slaughter**: The average trading weight of live pigs is larger year - on - year and rising month - on - month, indicating a large short - term supply [50]. - **Import and Pig Feed Month - on - Month**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis of trends is given in the text. - **Second - Round Fattening and Pen Utilization**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis of trends is given in the text. 4. Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume**: After the National Day, the demand side has improved, but the significant increase in consumption will have to wait until December [59]. - **Slaughter Capacity Utilization and Gross Margin**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis of trends is given in the text. - **Spread and Price - Volume Relationship**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis of trends is given in the text. - **Fresh - Frozen Spread and Fresh Sales Rate**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis of trends is given in the text. 5. Cost and Profit - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost is continuously declining. Pig prices are the weakest in the same period in recent years, and there have been overall losses this year despite the low cost [70]. 6. Inventory Side - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: No new content is provided in this section. - **Frozen Meat Inventory**: The frozen meat inventory is in a state of slow recovery and passive inventory accumulation [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of the pig market is characterized by an oversupply. Although the price of fat pigs is higher than that of standard pigs, the secondary fattening is unlikely to gain momentum due to the pessimistic market expectations. As a result, the rebound space for near - term spot prices is limited. The near - month futures contracts will mainly consume the premium, and the far - month contracts will continue to be devalued. The overall strategy is to sell on rebounds [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Affected by factors such as reluctance to sell at low prices, increased consumption after cooling, and more secondary fattening, domestic pig prices rebounded slightly from the low level last week. However, the cautious market limited the rebound space. With abundant supply, the average weight increased after slaughter, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs continued to rise seasonally. In terms of regional prices, the average price in Henan rose by 0.14 yuan to 11.4 yuan/kg, that in Sichuan fell by 0.06 yuan to 10.9 yuan/kg, and that in Guangdong fell by 0.3 yuan to 11.52 yuan/kg. The theoretical and planned出栏量 remains large, and the support from secondary fattening may be short - term. In October, there is no obvious consumption theme, and the short - term oversupply may continue. The spot market will generally maintain a weak oscillation, with phased support from reduced supply at the end of the month and secondary fattening [11][22]. - **Supply Side**: In August, the official sow inventory was 40.36 million heads, a slight month - on - month decrease of 60,000 heads (0.1%), still 3.5% more than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weak fundamental situation this year. However, there is a strong expectation of forced production capacity reduction from the policy side, which may improve the supply situation next year. The implementation of policy - driven production capacity reduction in the coming months needs attention. Data shows that the sow inventory decreased by 0.33% in September according to Steel Union and 0.84% according to Yongyi, indicating a slow pace of production capacity reduction. From the perspective of piglet data, there is a significant increase in basic supply from now to March next year. However, the continuous weight reduction of group farms from June to August led to some pre - emptive supply, which may partially offset the current supply pressure. Near - term data shows that the slaughter volume has remained high after the National Day, the frozen meat inventory has continued to rise, and the average trading weight of live pigs is larger than the same period last year and has increased month - on - month, indicating a short - term oversupply situation [11]. - **Demand Side**: There may be marginal improvement in demand due to the start of school in early September, cooling in the middle and late September, and stockpiling for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. However, after the National Day, demand will enter a downturn again until it gradually improves with the arrival of cold weather and the Spring Festival [11][59]. - **Trading Strategy**: - Unilateral: Short the 11 - 03 contracts on rallies, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 0.5 - 1 months. The core driving factors are supply, weight, and consumer demand [13]. - Arbitrage: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 contracts, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 2 months. The driving factors are policies, weight, basic supply, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Price Trend**: The domestic pig price rebounded slightly last week but was limited by the cautious market. The average weight increased after slaughter, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs rose seasonally. The theoretical and planned出栏量 is large, and the short - term oversupply may continue. The spot market will maintain a weak oscillation [22]. - **Basis and Spread Trends**: The spot price rebounded slightly, but the futures market had a weak expectation. The basis converged, and the month - spread still favored reverse arbitrage [25]. - **Prices of Piglets and Sows**: Relevant price trend charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given. 3.3. Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In August, the official sow inventory was 40.36 million heads, slightly down month - on - month, but still higher than the normal level. There is a strong expectation of policy - driven production capacity reduction, but the current pace of production capacity reduction is slow [33]. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From the piglet data, there is an increase in basic supply from now to March next year. The continuous weight reduction of group farms from June to August led to pre - emptive supply, which may offset some supply pressure. The short - term market is in an oversupply situation [43][50]. - **Sow Culling and Sales**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given. - **Theoretical Slaughter Volume**: The basic supply from now to March next year increases, but the pre - emptive supply from group farms may offset some pressure [43]. - **Proportion of Small and Large Pigs in Slaughter**: The low proportion of small pigs in slaughter indicates little impact from diseases, and the low proportion of large pigs indicates a limited number of fat pigs [46]. - **Trading and Post - slaughter Average Weight**: After the National Day, the slaughter volume remained high, the frozen meat inventory continued to rise, and the average trading weight of live pigs was larger than the same period last year and increased month - on - month, indicating a short - term oversupply [50]. - **Import and Pig Feed Month - on - month**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given. - **Secondary Fattening and Pen Utilization**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given. 3.4. Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume**: There may be marginal improvement in demand before the National Day, but it will enter a downturn after the National Day and gradually improve with the arrival of cold weather and the Spring Festival [59]. - **Slaughter Operating Rate and Gross Margin**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given. - **Price Difference and Price - Volume Relationship**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given. - **Fresh - Frozen Price Difference and Fresh Sales Rate**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given. 3.5. Cost and Profit - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost has been continuously decreasing. However, the pig price is the weakest in the same period in recent years, and there has been an overall loss this year despite the low cost [70]. 3.6. Inventory Side - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: The frozen meat inventory is in a state of slow recovery and passive inventory accumulation [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the main contract of live pig futures showed a volatile downward trend and declined significantly overall. The current supply - side pressure in the live pig market remains unabated, and it may enter a "double - increase in supply and demand" pattern later. Although consumption is gradually boosted, it is difficult to offset the increase on the supply side, so the current supply - demand pattern of live pigs in the market is still loose. It is expected that the oversupply situation in the live pig market in October will be difficult to fundamentally improve, and pig prices may still be under pressure. The future live pig prices are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations. Currently, the valuation of live pig contracts is not high, and there is cost support below. There is an expectation of a rebound in the future, but the space is relatively limited, and the market may maintain low - level fluctuations [6][7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: In September 2025, the price of the main contract of live pig futures ranged between 12,220 - 13,710 yuan/ton. Overall, it showed a volatile downward trend and declined significantly in the month. As of the close on September 30, 2025, the main contract LH2511 fell by 1,200 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.85%, and closed at 12,355 yuan/ton [12]. - **Spot Price**: As of September 25, 2025, the national average live pig price was 13.52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/kg from the previous month. From a seasonal perspective, the current national average live pig price is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. As of September 26, 2025, the average price of二元sows was 32.50 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of September 25, 2025, the average price of piglets was 29.07 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.61 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of September 29, 2025, the prices of 20 - kg外三元piglets in Baoding, Hebei, Linyi, Shandong, and Kaifeng, Henan were 21.83 yuan/kg, 21.71 yuan/kg, and 21.64 yuan/kg respectively, all showing a significant decline from the previous month [16][20][24]. Supply - Demand Balance Situation - **Global Live Pig Supply - Demand Balance**: According to the USDA report, in 2024, the global live pig supply - demand gap was 36,816 thousand heads, an increase of 13,929 thousand heads year - on - year. The global pork supply - demand gap was 1,350 thousand tons, an increase of 505 thousand tons year - on - year [31]. - **China's Live Pig Supply - Demand Balance**: According to the USDA report, in 2024, China's live pig supply - demand gap was 2,410 thousand heads, an increase of 11,781 thousand heads year - on - year. China's pork supply - demand gap was - 1,209 thousand tons, an increase of 592 thousand tons year - on - year [38]. Supply - Side Situation - **Live Pig Inventory Year - on - Year**: As of June 2025, the national live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. Seasonally, the live pig inventory is at a relatively low level in history [44]. - **Reproductive Sow Inventory**: As of August 2025, the national reproductive sow inventory was 40.38 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 40,000 heads, a decline of 0.1%; a year - on - year increase of 20,000 heads, an increase of 0.05%. Seasonally, the reproductive sow inventory is at a relatively low level in history [50]. - **Live Pig Slaughter**: In the second quarter of 2025, the national cumulative live pig slaughter was 366.19 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.24 million heads, an increase of 0.62%. Seasonally, the cumulative live pig slaughter is at a relatively high level in the past five years [52]. - **Pork Output**: As of June 2025, the national cumulative pork output was 30.2 million tons; a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons, an increase of 1.31%. Seasonally, the national pork output in the second quarter of 2025 is at a relatively high level in the past five years [62]. - **China's Pork Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's monthly pork import was 80,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons. Seasonally, the monthly import volume is at a relatively low level in the past five years [69]. Demand - Side Situation - **Slaughter Volume of Designated Live Pig Slaughtering Enterprises in China**: In July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises in China was 31.66 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.6 million heads, an increase of 5.32%. Seasonally, the monthly slaughter volume is at a high level in the past five years [76]. - **Pork and Main Meat Output**: As of June 30, 2025, the national cumulative output of main meats was 48.43 million tons, of which the cumulative pork output was 30.2 million tons, accounting for 62.36% [80]. Feed Supply - Demand Analysis - As of September 25, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2.48 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous month; as of September 25, 2025, the average spot price of soybean meal was 3.28 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous month. As of August 2025, the feed output was 29.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Seasonally, the feed output is at a high level in the past five years [83][89]. Breeding Benefit Analysis - **Profit from Purchasing Piglets for Breeding**: As of September 26, 2025, the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding was - 236.57 yuan/head. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level in history [95]. - **Profit from Self - Breeding and Self - Raising Live Pigs**: As of September 26, 2025, the profit from self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was - 74.11 yuan/head. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level in history [100]. - **Profit from Broiler Chicken Breeding**: As of September 26, 2025, the profit from broiler chicken breeding was - 2.22 yuan/bird. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level in history [106]. Pig - Grain Ratio As of September 26, 2025, the pig - grain ratio in China was 5.44. According to the standards of the "Plan for Improving the Government's Pork Reserve Regulation Mechanism and Ensuring Stable Supply and Price of the Pork Market", since the pig - grain ratio has been between 5:1 and 6:1 for nearly two consecutive months, the current live pig price is in the second - level early - warning range of excessive decline, and the state may start purchasing and storing as the situation requires [111]. Recent Policies and Meetings in the Live Pig Industry - **Symposium on High - Quality Development of the Live Pig Industry**: On July 23, 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on promoting the high - quality development of the live pig industry in Beijing. The meeting emphasized high - quality industry development and put forward measures such as appropriately reducing reproductive sows, strictly controlling new production capacity, controlling body weight, and reducing secondary fattening. Affected by this, on July 23, 2025, the main domestic live pig futures contract 2509 once soared to 15,150 yuan/ton, hitting a new high for the year [112]. - **Expanded Meeting of the Executive Office of the Pig Industry Branch of the China Animal Husbandry Association**: On August 13, 2025, the Animal Husbandry Association held an expanded meeting of the executive office of the pig industry branch. The meeting conveyed the spirit of the "Symposium on High - Quality Development of the Live Pig Industry" and put forward goals such as reducing production, reducing weight, and stabilizing prices. After the meeting, leading enterprises in the industry actively responded to the production capacity regulation policy and stated that they would reduce the inventory of reproductive sows [113][114]. - **Symposium on Live Pig Production Capacity Regulation Enterprises**: On September 16, 2025, the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium on live pig production capacity regulation enterprises in Beijing. The meeting aimed to regulate the live pig slaughter supply for next year, involving content such as controlling the production capacity of reproductive sows, restricting "secondary fattening", and reducing the weight of live pig slaughter [115]. Fundamental Analysis - The national average live pig price in September 2025 decreased slightly from the previous month, the price of二元sows was basically the same as the previous month, and the price of piglets decreased significantly from the previous month. The supply pressure will remain high in the future. The actual speed of production capacity reduction is obviously lagging and lacks sustainability. The reproductive sow inventory is still close to the upper limit of the green range of 41 million heads, and the overall supply remains sufficient. The frozen - product inventory maintains a low - level. The terminal consumption is expected to improve. The breeding profit in September 2025 showed a continuous downward trend, and the live pig breeding has fully entered the loss area [116][118][119]. 后市 Outlook The main contract of live pig futures showed a volatile downward trend in September 2025 and declined significantly overall. The current supply - side pressure in the live pig market remains unabated, and it may enter a "double - increase in supply and demand" pattern later. It is expected that the oversupply situation in the live pig market in October will be difficult to fundamentally improve, and pig prices may still be under pressure. The future live pig prices are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations. In the short term, factors such as the seasonal consumption peak season and policy regulation may drive a phased rebound in pig prices, but the rebound space is relatively limited under supply pressure. In the long term, as the process of production capacity optimization progresses, the market supply - demand relationship will gradually improve. Currently, the overall valuation of live pig futures contracts is not high, and there is cost support below. There is an expectation of a rebound in the future, but the space is relatively limited, and the market may maintain low - level fluctuations. Future attention should be paid to changes in terminal consumption, weight reduction of live pigs, changes in the inventory of reproductive sows, live pig slaughter, and secondary fattening [120][121]. Operation Strategy It is expected that the main live pig contract may maintain low - level fluctuations in October. The operation suggestions are: for unilateral trading, consider trying to go long at low prices; for arbitrage, temporarily wait and see; for options, temporarily wait and see [122][123].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The later supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the spot price will still be under pressure in the fourth quarter. Seasonal consumption and secondary fattening may bring about a phased rebound, but there is limited room for a significant increase. The futures market is currently in a state of overall premium, and the outlook is bearish with a volatile trend [1][23]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Since the third quarter, the live pig spot market has mainly declined. The spot price in Henan, the benchmark area, dropped from a high of 15.34 yuan/kg at the beginning of the quarter to nearly 12.5 yuan/kg, a decline of nearly 3 yuan. The futures market experienced a round of anti - involution trading in August, but due to the under - performance of relevant policies, the premium the high the high premium, the market entered a stage of continuous premium squeezing. The large supply of live pigs determined the weak pig prices. Although there are national policy expectations for capacity regulation in the futures market, the impact on listed contracts is limited, making it difficult to maintain the high premium [3]. 2. Supply and Demand Analysis of Live Pigs 2.1 Piglet Data Indicates High Later - Stage Slaughter Pressure - The national inventory of reproductive sows reached a peak of 40.8 million in November 2024 and then fluctuated downward. According to commercial data, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample enterprises continued to increase from November 2024 to June 2025 and began to decrease in July and August. Based on the impact cycle of reproductive sows on slaughter, the domestic live pig supply potential will remain sufficient until April 2026 and may slightly decrease in May and June. In September, the piglet price fell below the cost line, and with the government's guidance for large - scale enterprises to reduce production capacity, the number of reproductive sows may decline, which will help ease the supply pressure after July next year. From the piglet birth data, the piglet birth volume increased month - on - month from the beginning of the year to May, and there was some differentiation among commercial institutions from June to August, but the decrease was not significant. This means that the slaughter pressure will gradually increase until November 2025 and will not significantly decrease until February 2026 [5]. 2.2 Feed Sales Confirm the Increase in Pig Inventory - From March to August 2025, the sales of piglet feed and nursery feed were generally stable with a slight increase. The month - on - month growth rate this year was slightly lower than that in 2024 but better than that in 2023. The month - on - month growth rate of finishing pig feed in July and August 2025 was slightly lower than that in the same period of 2023 and 2024, which may be related to the decrease in secondary fattening. Overall, the social pig inventory is increasing, but the marginal increase is slightly lower than last year [8]. 2.3 Secondary Fattening is Restrained and the Utilization Rate of Retailers' Fattening Pens Declines - The average slaughter weight of live pigs across the country has entered the seasonal weight - gain stage since September, currently at around 124.5 kg, still at a moderately high level year - on - year. Retailers' average weight has been increasing since February and reached a high in September, significantly higher year - on - year. The average weight of large - scale farms decreased continuously from June and rebounded slightly in September, but the increase was not significant. The price difference between fat and standard pigs in September was at a moderate level, indicating sufficient fat pig supply, which may be due to retailers' passive extension of the breeding time. In recent years, secondary fattening has been relatively rational, mainly with rolling operations. Due to policy guidance, leading enterprises will continue to control the sales of pigs for secondary fattening, while small and medium - sized enterprises may be less affected. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pens has continuously declined to a low level since August, and attention should be paid to whether there will be a new round of secondary fattening replenishment after the long holiday [10][12]. 2.4 Slaughter Volume Increases Significantly but Demand is Limited - According to the Ministry of Commerce, the national live pig slaughter volume has increased significantly compared with last year, reflecting the increase in domestic live pig supply. The slaughter gross profit margin has significantly rebounded since July and reached a relatively high level in September. The utilization rate of frozen - product storage capacity has continuously increased in September, cross - verifying with the low fresh - sales rate, indicating weak terminal consumption and the inability to effectively absorb the increased supply [14]. 2.5 The Industry Enters the Loss Zone and There is Limited Room for Further Cost Reduction - Since the third quarter of 2025, the pig price has gradually weakened, and the pig - breeding profit has deteriorated. As the national average price fell below 13 yuan, the breeding profit of the self - breeding and self - fattening model entered the loss zone. Recently, the piglet price has declined, and the expected slaughter cost of pigs fattened with purchased piglets has also dropped rapidly. As of late September, the expected slaughter cost of purchased piglets has dropped to 12.15 yuan. The prices of soybean meal and corn are currently at low levels, and there is limited room for further reduction in feed costs. The low pig price will continue to suppress profits in the future [19]. 3. Conclusion and Market Outlook - Based on the number of piglet births, the period from October to February next year is when the domestic live pig slaughter pressure will be realized, especially in October and November when the month - on - month increase in slaughter is relatively large, and it will coincide with the weak demand period after the long holiday, which may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. Cross - verification of feed production and sales data shows that the month - on - month growth rate of finishing feed sales in July and August is good, indicating a gradual increase in inventory. In terms of the slaughter rhythm, large - scale groups have accelerated the pace of reducing the average slaughter weight in response to national policies, while the average slaughter weight of retailers' pigs is still relatively high, reflecting slow digestion of large pigs by retailers. On the demand side, overall consumption will increase in the fourth quarter, but its impact on prices depends on the matching degree of future supply. In addition, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens has continuously declined to a low level, and attention should be paid to whether there will be a new round of secondary fattening after the seasonal low in October. Overall, the later supply is sufficient, the live pig spot price will still be under pressure in the fourth quarter, and the futures market is expected to be bearish with a volatile trend [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the pig price will experience a weak and volatile adjustment [4]. - From the data of sows and piglets, the monthly hog slaughter volume may increase until December, and it is difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under the condition of sufficient supply [4]. - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and this price difference is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will also weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs and provide some support for the pig price [4]. - If the weak price continues, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 23, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 427 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in the spot price. Attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter weight of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its position by 531 lots today, with a position of about 93,500 lots. The highest price today was 12,840 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 12,655 yuan/ton, and it closed at 12,665 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the data of piglets, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase in a fluctuating manner. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen in a fluctuating manner [3]. - The short - side logic in the market includes that the slaughter weight has stopped falling and increased, the "inventory" pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent slaughter volume is still at a high level, and the demand support for the pig price is limited from September to October. The long - side logic includes that the farming side has reduced the weight, which is beneficial to the future market, consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cool, and the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is a weak and volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and it is difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs and support the pig price. If the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, and if it occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On September 23, the national average hog slaughter price was 12.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg or 0.24% compared with the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 12.88 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg or 0.08% compared with the previous day. The slaughter price in Sichuan was 12.27 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.57% compared with the previous day [6]. - Among the futures prices, the prices of various contracts generally declined, with the 07 contract having the largest decline of 1.58%. The main contract (11 contract) closed at 12,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton or 1.02% compared with the previous day [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 120 yuan/ton to 215 yuan/ton, an increase of 126.32% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - Tracking data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contract, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contract are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not carried out in the text [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current pig market shows a significant oversupply situation. Spot prices are falling rapidly due to large - scale group and散户 sales, and the future spot trend remains pessimistic. - The fundamentals in 2025 may be weaker than in 2024 due to the continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year. However, the expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction is strong, which may improve the supply situation next year. - Demand may improve marginally at the beginning and middle of September due to school openings, temperature drops, and festival preparations, but it will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches. - The short - term trend of the futures market is likely to remain weak. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts on rebounds and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks. [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: The oversupply has led to a spread of pessimistic sentiment, with domestic pig prices accelerating their decline last week. Group and散户 sales have increased supply pressure, and the future spot trend is still pessimistic. For example, the average price in Henan dropped by 0.5 yuan to 12.96 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 0.84 yuan to 12.36 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong by 1.2 yuan to 13.36 yuan/kg. - **Supply Side**: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, 3.6% more than the normal level. The supply from September to November is expected to increase, but the weight reduction by group factories from June to August may partially offset the supply pressure. - **Demand Side**: Demand may improve marginally in early - mid September but will decline after the National Day. - **Strategy**: Maintain the idea of shorting near - month contracts and conducting reverse arbitrage. For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and short on rebounds for the 11 and 01 contracts. For arbitrage, conduct 3 - 5 and 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage. [11][13] 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - **Spot Trend**: The oversupply has led to a rapid decline in pig prices last week, with group and散户 sales increasing supply pressure. The future spot trend is pessimistic. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price has dropped significantly, the basis has declined, and the month - to - month spread follows the reverse arbitrage logic. - **Prices of Piglets and Sows**: No specific analysis of price trends is provided in the text, only relevant price charts are presented. [22][25] 3.3. Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, 10,000 less than the previous month but still 3.6% more than the normal level. The effectiveness of capacity reduction needs more evidence. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From September to November, the basic supply will increase, but the weight reduction by group factories from June to August may partially offset the supply pressure. - **Slaughter of Different - Sized Pigs**: The proportion of small - pig slaughter has slightly increased, indicating a slight increase in pig diseases. The proportion of large - pig slaughter is not high, and attention should be paid to the fat - standard price difference. - **Other Indicators**: Slaughter volume is increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms is starting to stabilize and rise, showing an oversupply situation. [33][42][45] 3.4. Demand Side - Demand may improve marginally in early - mid September due to school openings, temperature drops, and festival preparations. However, it will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches. [58] 3.5. Cost and Profit - Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost is continuously declining. However, pig prices are the weakest in the same period over the years, and the industry has suffered full - scale losses this year. [69] 3.6. Inventory Side - The frozen - product inventory is slowly rising. [74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply is expected to increase for both pigs and pork this week as the domestic market enters the peak season before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, with more pigs being sent to the market. Demand is affected by the pessimistic macro - environment and high - temperature weather, but the tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. The market is likely to see a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and pig prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms at the end of the month and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. - The basis of the 2511 contract is - 5 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, presenting a neutral situation [10]. - As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% increase from the previous month and a 2.2% increase year - on - year. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% increase from the previous month and a 4.2% increase year - on - year, showing a bearish trend [10]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, indicating a bearish trend [10]. - The net long position of the main contract is held, but the long position is decreasing, suggesting a bullish trend [10]. - In the near term, both supply and demand of pigs are rising. Pig prices are expected to bottom out and then maintain a range - bound pattern this week, with the LH2511 contract oscillating in the range of 13,400 - 13,800 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase this week. The market may see a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and pig prices are likely to remain volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms at the end of the month and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market. The LH2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,400 - 13,800 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. As the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day approach, the supply and demand of pigs are both increasing, and the spot price has returned to a volatile pattern, with the futures following a range - bound pattern [12]. - High - temperature weather has led to a short - term decline in pork demand. The spot price of pigs is oscillating weakly due to increased supply, but the decline may be limited as demand gradually recovers [12]. - The profit of domestic pig farming remains at a low level, and the short - term profit has worsened. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is good in the short term, and the situation of both supply and demand increasing supports the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [12]. - The spot price of pigs may oscillate strongly before the National Day, and the futures will generally return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The domestic pig consumption has entered the peak season before the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic pig spot price may be limited [13]. - Bearish factors: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures and spot prices: A table shows the prices of different pig futures contracts and the spot prices of outer - ternary pigs in different regions from August 21 to August 29 [14]. - Supply - side data: - Pig inventory: As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a 5.9% decrease from the previous month and a 5.2% decrease year - on - year. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a 0.2% increase from the previous month and a 6.2% decrease year - on - year. As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% increase from the previous month and a 2.2% increase year - on - year. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% increase from the previous month and a 4.2% increase year - on - year [10][28]. - Piglet indicators: Diagrams show the average prices of binary sows, 7kg piglets, and culled sows, as well as the feed - to - meat ratio and survival rate of piglets [23][25]. - Scale - farm inventory: Diagrams show the inventory trends of commodity pigs in different weight ranges in scale farms [29][31]. - Pork imports: A diagram shows the monthly pork import trends [33]. - Fattening cost: A diagram shows the fattening cost trends (taking 100 - 120kg as an example) [36]. - Feed profit expectation: A diagram shows the weekly profit expectation of pig feed [39]. - Slaughter: Diagrams show the monthly pig slaughter volume trends and the weekly average slaughter weight trends [42]. - Slaughter profit: Diagrams show the weekly pig slaughter profit trends, the weekly profit trends of self - breeding and self - fattening and purchasing piglets, and the price differences between pigs and other meats [43][45][48]. - Slaughter - end data: - Prices: Diagrams show the trends of the average price of white - striped pigs, the price difference between live pigs and white - striped pigs, the slaughter settlement price, and the average price in 36 cities [50][52]. - Slaughter profit: A diagram shows the weekly slaughter processing profit trends [54]. - Demand slaughter: Diagrams show the daily pig slaughter volume and the opening rate, the weekly fresh - meat sales rate and frozen - product inventory rate of slaughtering enterprises [56][58]. - Demand - side data: - Consumption trend: A diagram shows the annual total pork consumption trend, and the annual pig consumption has increased month - on - month, indicating a recovery in pork consumption preference due to price advantages [60][62]. - Pig - grain ratio: A diagram shows the pig - grain ratio trends [63]. - Reserve operations: - Reserve purchase and sale: Diagrams show the historical trends of pig price increases and decreases, the pig reserve purchase situation from 2019 - 2024, and the pig reserve release situation from 2019 - 2024 [67][69][71]. 3.5 Position Data - The net long position of the main contract is held, but the long position is decreasing, suggesting a bullish trend [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - continuous pressure release and bottom - support sentiment have led to a temporary stabilization of the spot price. The futures market has shown an overall trend of rising and then falling due to news. The market is waiting for the supply - demand game at the end of the third quarter. With the expectation of both increasing supply and demand, the position of the fat - standard price difference and whether there will be hoarding at that time are crucial. The market may fall into a range - bound oscillation. In the short term, focus on low - buying, in the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure, and for the far - month contracts, adopt the reverse - spread strategy [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic pig prices generally rose slightly and then fell, showing a narrow - range fluctuation. The average weight remained stable during the week, with local weight - reduction continuing and some signs of hoarding and reluctant selling. The fat - standard price difference rebounded slightly, and the slaughter volume increased month - on - month. Specifically, the average price in Henan rose by 0.1 yuan to 13.9 yuan/kg, reaching a maximum of 14 yuan/kg during the week; the average price in Sichuan rose by 0.15 yuan to 13.56 yuan/kg, with a maximum of 13.66 yuan/kg; the average price in Guangdong fell by 0.44 yuan to 14.96 yuan/kg. The weight - reduction behavior of the breeding side is approaching the end, the slaughter rhythm has slowed down, and there is a slight warming space for the demand side with the cooling in the north. It is expected that pig prices will be stable month - on - month this week, with some areas possibly rising slightly [11]. - **Supply Side**: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million heads, a slight month - on - month increase, still 3.7% more than the normal sow inventory. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. However, there is a strong expectation of forced capacity reduction from the policy side, which may improve next year's supply under the background of no obvious losses this year. In the next few months, focus on the implementation of policy - driven capacity reduction. From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase in the basic supply from September to the end of the year. However, the continuous weight - reduction of group farms from June to August has led to some pre - release of supply, which may partially offset the supply pressure at that time. Pay attention to where this wave of weight goes and whether there will be inventory accumulation at the end of the third quarter. In the short - term data, the slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, the weight of large - scale farms has been continuously declining, and the current market shows a state of increasing sales volume by reducing prices [11]. - **Demand Side**: The overall consumption environment is weak, and the change in consumption habits is unfavorable for pork consumption. Year - on - year, pork consumption has been declining, but month - on - month, pay attention to the pulse effect of festival consumption on pig prices [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, recommend buying on dips for the November and January contracts with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 1 - 2 months, with the core driving logic being inventory reduction, hoarding, and the fat - standard price difference. For arbitrage, recommend a 3 - 5 reverse spread with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 2 months, with the core driving logic being policies, weight, basic supply, and the fat - standard price difference [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: Last week, domestic pig prices generally rose slightly and then fell, showing a narrow - range fluctuation. The average weight remained stable during the week, with local weight - reduction continuing and some signs of hoarding and reluctant selling. The fat - standard price difference rebounded slightly, and the slaughter volume increased month - on - month. The price trends in different regions vary. The price is expected to be stable month - on - month this week, with some areas possibly rising slightly [22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price trend is weak, but there is an expectation of a bottom - out rebound in the later part of August. The month - spread fluctuates within a narrow range [25]. - **Piglet and Sow Prices**: The report provides historical price trends of piglets, reserve sows, culled sows, and the ratio of culled sows to live pigs, but no specific analysis is given [27][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million heads, a slight month - on - month increase, still 3.7% more than the normal sow inventory. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. There is a strong expectation of forced capacity reduction from the policy side, and in the next few months, focus on the implementation of policy - driven capacity reduction [33]. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase in the basic supply from September to the end of the year. However, the continuous weight - reduction of group farms from June to August has led to some pre - release of supply, which may partially offset the supply pressure at that time. Pay attention to inventory accumulation at the end of the third quarter. The proportion of small - pig slaughter has slightly increased, indicating a slight resurgence of pig diseases, and pay attention to its persistence. The proportion of large - pig slaughter is not high, and pay attention to the trend of the fat - standard price difference. The short - term data shows that the slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, the weight of large - scale farms has been continuously declining, and the market shows a state of increasing sales volume by reducing prices [42][45][49]. - **Import and Pig Feed Month - on - Month**: The report provides historical data on pork imports and pig feed month - on - month changes, but no specific analysis is given [51]. - **Secondary Fattening and Pigsty Utilization**: The report provides data on the proportion of secondary - fattening sales and pigsty utilization rate, but no specific analysis is given [53]. 3.4 Demand Side - The overall consumption environment is weak, and the change in consumption habits is unfavorable for pork consumption. Year - on - year, pork consumption has been declining, but month - on - month, pay attention to the pulse effect of festival consumption on pig prices. The report also provides data on slaughter volume, slaughtering start - up rate, gross profit, price - spread, fresh - frozen price difference, and fresh - sales rate, but no in - depth analysis is given [58]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost has slightly rebounded after reaching the bottom, and the overall cost is relatively low year - on - year. Affected by the lag effect of the low cost, although pig prices are weak, the breeding profit is the highest in recent years [69]. 3.6 Inventory Side - The frozen - product inventory is moderately low but is in a slow recovery state [74].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that the hog market will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of hogs is expected to increase gradually until December, making it difficult for hog prices to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support hog prices to some extent. Given that the LH2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price and short - term price fluctuations are limited, the report suggests a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3. Summary by Section Market Dynamics - On July 16, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 444 lots. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the LH2509 contract is oscillating and adjusting. - The main contract (LH2509) added 1,125 lots in positions today, with approximately 69,000 lots held. The highest price was 14,250 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,000 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,010 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of hogs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The demand in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatory. - The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for hog prices as the second and third quarters are not peak consumption seasons. The bullish logic includes the potential for an increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and the fact that although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for hogs [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. - The core logic is that hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly due to sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will support hog prices. Since the LH2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price and short - term price fluctuations are limited, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Market Overview - National hog slaughter price on July 16 was 14.43 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg or 0.76% from the previous day. - Futures prices of various contracts declined on July 16 compared to the previous day, with the 09 contract down 240 yuan/ton or 1.68%. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 180 yuan/ton or 50% to 540 yuan/ton [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - CBOT soybean futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, with Brazilian discounts oscillating at the bottom. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract has limited room for further decline, and it is advisable to enter the market at low prices. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to be bearish, and the low level of the futures price may shorten the downward space of the basis [17]. - In the short term, the supply and demand of live pigs are expected to increase slightly, remaining in a slightly loose balance. Attention should be paid to the timing of potential supply release, which may cause prices to continue to be under pressure. However, continuous price declines may trigger farmers' reluctance to sell, hindering the price decline [18][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - The main DCE soybean meal 2509 contract rose 0.10% to 2889 yuan/ton, with coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes down 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The main DCE live pig 2509 contract rose 0.04% to 13690 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live pigs was 14.45 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract closed unchanged at 1051 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Production Areas - In the US Midwest, it was dry on the weekend and will see rainfall again this week. In the west, there were scattered showers until last Friday, dry on Saturday and Sunday, and scattered showers on Monday. Temperatures varied. In the east, there were scattered showers until Saturday, mostly dry on Sunday, and scattered showers on Monday. Temperatures also fluctuated. The 6 - 10 - day outlook shows scattered showers from Tuesday to Thursday and mostly dry from Friday to Saturday. The southeastern low - pressure will bring showers to the east, and another weather system will bring more rainfall potential [4]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On May 16, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 646 million tons, up 57 million tons week - on - week. The soybean meal inventory was 12 million tons, up 2 million tons week - on - week [5]. - On May 19, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 178,000 tons, up 90,000 tons from the previous day. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill startup rate was 60.67%, up 3.17% from the previous day [5]. - On May 20, the import cost of US soybeans was 4553 yuan, up 6 yuan; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3660 yuan, up 5 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3570 yuan, up 50 yuan [5]. - On May 20, the daily slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises' live pigs was 269,369, up 2.67% [5]. - On May 20, the daily slaughter volume of key slaughtering enterprises' live pigs was 122,982, down 0.26% [6]. - In March 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.68 million tons of soybeans, producing 3.55 million tons of soybean meal and 960,000 tons of soybean oil. The ending inventory of soybeans was 2578 tons, soybean meal was 2.2 million tons, and soybean oil was 320,000 tons [6]. - As of May 17, the harvesting rate of 2024/25 Brazilian soybeans was 98.9% [6]. - As of May 18, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 66%, and the emergence rate was 34% [6]. - In the first three weeks of May, Brazil exported 7,836,693.24 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 712,426.66 tons, up 11.34% from the same period last year [7]. - China's imported soybeans' customs clearance has accelerated from over 20 days to about 10 days. It is expected that 13 million tons will arrive in May, 12 million tons in June, and 9.5 million tons in July [7]. 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts including the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, rapeseed meal prices in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, live pig prices in Henan and DCE live pig futures, live pig basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory [10][11][14][15]. 5. Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean export weakness and good sowing weather suppress the rebound of US soybeans, but concerns about Argentine soybean production cuts provide short - term support. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract has limited downward space. The supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose, and the inventory pressure may reach its maximum from late June to July. The spot price of soybean meal is bearish [17]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply has slightly increased, and the medium - term supply pressure is increasing. The terminal demand has declined, but the Dragon Boat Festival备货 may boost demand briefly. In the short term, supply and demand are in a slightly loose balance, and the price may be under pressure [18][19].