策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.08.27） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：高位横盘整理，指数分化 中期观点：宽幅震荡 参考策略：IF2509 多单谨慎持有，持有 IO-4300-P 看跌期权保护 核心逻辑： 1.资金情绪方面，市场量能虽有缩减，但仍处于高位水平，融资余额 稳定进一步逼近 2.2 万亿水平，杠杆资金持续进场，杠杆资金交投情绪继 续升温，融资资金交易额占比快速上升至 11.80%，同时全市场换手率亦 同步提升，关注短期调整风险。 2.政策端，国务院会议明确要巩固经济回升向好势头，政策面形成多 重利好叠加，为市场提供良好支撑。国常会听取实施大规模设备更新和消 费品以旧换新政策情况汇报，综合施策释放内需潜力。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点：反弹延续，长债偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：TL2512 多单持有 核心逻辑： 1.资金方面，央行公开市场转为净回笼，不过此前月度 MLF 续作实现 大额净投放，银行间市场资金面维持充沛，存款类机构隔夜利率进一步下 行 3BP 至 1.31%附近。中长期资金方面，国股行 1 年期同业存单收益率略 有上 ...

Group 1: Research Background - Steel mills are showing high production enthusiasm, with pig iron output reaching the highest level for the same period since March before starting to decline, leading to accumulated supply pressure [1] - Hebei, as the largest steel production base in China, accounts for 20%-30% of the national output, primarily in plate products, making its production dynamics significantly influential on the national market [1] - The demand for steel is expected to decline seasonally, but the "export rush" effect has shown strong resilience in steel demand, with export volumes increasing year-on-year [1] Group 2: Production and Output - Most steel mills have adopted an over-ordering strategy, with orders from downstream processing plants typically ranging from 15 to 30 days, and some products scheduled for production until the end of July [2] - Steel mills are currently enjoying decent profits, with immediate profits around 100-200 yuan per ton, and some mills achieving net profits exceeding 100 yuan per ton [2] Group 3: Export Situation - Export profits remain acceptable, with increases in the export volumes of rebar, steel billets, and wire rods, particularly to the Middle East and Africa, while reductions are noted in exports to South Korea and Japan [4] - There is potential for screening orders in steel billet exports, and while some believe that the export rush may deplete future demand, the actual impact may not be as significant as anticipated [4] Group 4: Inventory and Expectations - Inventory levels among steel mills and traders are low, with steel mill inventories dropping from 20,000 tons to 4,000 tons, indicating a need for inventory building based on market fluctuations [6] - Some anticipate that upcoming events such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in July and the World University Games in August may impact short-term supply, while others doubt the effectiveness of policy-driven production restrictions due to local GDP pressures [6] Group 5: Seasonal Demand Outlook - The negative feedback from the industrial sector in June may be difficult to realize, as steel mills are currently profitable and production is stable, making significant production cuts unlikely [7] - The resilience of plate demand is a key variable influencing the overall demand for steel during the off-season, with expectations that plate demand may outperform market predictions [7] Group 6: Specific Situations in Steel Mills and Processing Plants - A hot-rolled processing enterprise reported a production capacity of 4 million tons, with a focus on color-coated products, and is experiencing high demand, with orders extending to the end of July [9] - A steel mill's trading department noted that orders for various steel products are generally over 25 days, with net profits ranging from 50 to 100 yuan per ton, and a positive outlook on the market despite regional pressures [10] - A cold-rolled sales department indicated that exports are primarily directed towards Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with a notable increase in orders, although the overall export volume is slightly weaker compared to previous months [11] Group 7: Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The current market is characterized by strong realities and weak expectations, with healthy inventory levels and order volumes, suggesting that the anticipated negative feedback may not materialize [8] - The steel price may experience fluctuations, with potential upward movement if the current strong reality persists, despite the overall market sentiment being cautious [12]