新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-03-31 成本支撑下，镍不锈钢高位震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2026-03-30日沪镍主力合约开于136080元/吨，收于137120元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.47%，当日成交量为336342 （+20315）手，持仓量为176244（-6248）手。 走势分析：当前镍处于政策面与基本面博弈状态。政策方面，印尼出口税与镍矿配额又有所反复，整体导向仍不 明朗，但从目前来看仍对价格起到一定支撑作用。基本面方面，供应端，镍矿紧张态势延续，价格看涨情绪浓厚， 镍铁与精炼镍供应充足，但受镍矿价格高位影响，成本支撑较为稳定，MHP生产有所受阻，且在硫磺供应紧张的 局势下，价格维持强势。需求端，不锈钢方面钢厂利润改善，提供稳定需求支撑，新能源方面，新能源汽车产销 符合预期，但处于消费淡季，环比改善有限，三元电池贡献小幅需求增量，但现货方面，下游企业采买意愿偏弱， 以刚需采购为主。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，印尼镍矿升水仍存上探空间，RKAB 配额审批进度缓慢，多数矿山因配额未批复停 摆，能矿部当前重心为保障煤炭供应。火法矿方面，主流工厂下月升水大概率维稳，部分工厂或上调 1 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-03-26 2026-03-25日沪镍主力合约开于133920元/吨，收于136130元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化1.08%，当日成交量为460381 （+18036）手，持仓量为188824（7678）手。 走势分析：当前镍处于政策面与基本面博弈状态。政策方面，镍矿开采配额从 3.79 亿吨降至 2.6-2.7 亿吨，矿端 供应偏紧，提供长期支撑。基本面方面，供应端产量继续上升，国内外库存持续垒加，市场供应充足；需求端不 锈钢厂利润改善，节后生产陆续恢复，提供稳定需求支撑，新能源汽车产销符合预期，但处于消费淡季，环比改 善有限。此外，中东局势影响硫磺供应，抬升镍生产成本。整体来看，沪镍价格下有印尼政策带来的镍矿成本支 撑，上有宏观、供需格局压制，难以走出确定性单向行情。 宏观方面：美总统特朗普称已通过第三方向伊朗提出15点停火方案，暂停打击伊朗能源设施至3月27日，拟设1个 月停火谈判期，但伊朗当即否认谈判，拒绝相关提议，双方并未形成实质沟通。从发言中看出地缘冲突可能存在 缓和苗头，有色金属板块集体反弹。此外，印尼财政部长表示，总统普拉博沃周三已批准对煤炭和镍出口征收关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand situation of nickel is weak but in line with expectations. Policy factors are the main driver of nickel price trends. With the dominant nickel ore contraction policy in Indonesia, nickel prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory state [1][4]. - The price trend of stainless steel is mainly influenced by nickel prices. High costs support the price bottom, but the loose supply and increasing inventory will suppress the upward space of stainless steel prices. It is expected that stainless steel prices will also maintain a high - level oscillatory state [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 11, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 137,480 yuan/ton and closed at 137,160 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.69% compared with the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 309,179 (-192,726) lots, and the open interest was 210,843 (-681) lots [1]. - Nickel is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The Indonesian nickel ore policy continues to ferment, with the 2026 RKAB quota set at 2.5 billion tons, a 34% drop from 3.79 billion tons in 2025, which leads to expectations of future nickel ore supply shortage and supports nickel prices. On the fundamental side, supply production continues to rise, inventories at home and abroad accumulate, and the market supply is sufficient. The consumption of stainless steel after the Spring Festival is poor, and the inventory rebounds significantly, suppressing price rebounds. The production and sales of new energy vehicles meet expectations but are in the off - season, with limited month - on - month improvement [1]. Macro and Cost Factors - Global risk - aversion sentiment has reignited. The US dollar index has rebounded, suppressing the price trends of nickel and stainless steel. The global crude oil supply crisis has led to a resurgence of tension, and the US dollar has strengthened, putting pressure on commodity prices [2]. - Affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, international oil prices have soared, driving up ocean freight rates. The transportation cost of Philippine nickel ore has increased significantly, strengthening cost - side support. The ocean freight from the Philippines to major ports in China and Indonesia has generally increased by 5 - 7 US dollars/wet ton. In Indonesia, the domestic trade premium of nickel ore remains high, and the incentive mechanism is diversified [2]. Spot Market - The nickel price declined slightly during the day. The spot premium of Jinchuan resources rebounded slightly, while the premiums and discounts of other brands remained stable. After the nickel price correction, the downstream's willingness to purchase at low prices increased slightly, but overall trading was still cautious. The cost - side support remains solid. The tightening policy of the Indonesian nickel ore RKAB quota continues to ferment, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz affects sulfur imports, pushing up the production costs of hydrometallurgy and electrowinning nickel [3]. Strategy - The current supply - demand situation is weak but in line with expectations. Policy is the main driver of nickel price trends. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a high - level oscillatory state. The strategy is mainly interval operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 11, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,235 yuan/ton and closed at 14,215 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,682 (-30,711) lots, and the open interest was 104,928 (-4,171) lots [5]. - The price trend of stainless steel is mainly influenced by nickel prices. On the supply side, the crude steel production schedule in March increased month - on - month, and the supply pressure increased. The operating rate of stainless steel plants remained high, and the production was sufficient. On the consumption side, the consumption after the Spring Festival was poor, and the social inventory continued to accumulate, suppressing price rebounds. Although there are expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, short - term demand is difficult to improve significantly [5]. Spot Market - Spot traders' quotations remained stable overall. Downstream terminals mainly made rigid - demand purchases. The previous bullish sentiment has been exhausted, and the willingness to purchase and stock up in advance is insufficient. As the traditional peak season approaches, the basic demand can still be maintained, and practitioners expect that the stainless steel price will still be strongly supported by costs within the month [5]. Strategy - The current price trend is mainly influenced by nickel prices. High costs support the price bottom, but the loose supply and increasing inventory will suppress the upward space of stainless steel prices. It is expected that stainless steel prices will maintain a high - level oscillatory state. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-03-06 中东地缘冲突持续，沪镍不锈钢震荡走低 镍品种 市场分析 2026-03-05日沪镍主力合约开于138320元/吨，收于136270元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.31%，当日成交量为 464447（-55631）手，持仓量为217527（-1044）手。 走势分析：当前镍处于政策面与基本面博弈状态。政策方面，印尼镍矿政策持续发酵，能源与矿产资源部计划将 2026 年 RKAB 配额设定为2.5 亿吨，较 2025 年的 3.79 亿吨大幅下降 34%，此举旨在 \"防止镍价进一步下跌\"， 引发市场对未来镍矿供应紧张的预期，印尼镍矿商协会秘书长梅迪表示，配额减少将直接影响镍铁和不锈钢生产， 受此影响，镍矿价格持续走高，支撑镍价走势。基本面方面，供应端产量继续上升，国内外库存持续垒加，市场 供应充足；需求端不锈钢春节后消费不佳，库存大幅回升，压制价格反弹，新能源汽车产销符合预期，但处于消 费淡季，环比改善有限。整体来看，供需情况虽然持续偏弱但符合预期，政策面成为镍价走势的主要驱动，在印 尼方面镍矿收缩政策占据主导的情况下，预计镍价将保持高位震荡态势。 镍矿方面： ...