Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The current demand in the e-commerce express delivery industry remains resilient, with a top-down "anti-involution" policy driving up express prices, thereby releasing profit elasticity for companies. The long-term outlook for e-commerce express delivery is favorable due to healthy competition opportunities [16] - The oil transportation sector is expected to benefit from sustained crude oil production and tight capacity, with the "Changjin factor" reshaping pricing logic. Geopolitical changes may continue to catalyze sentiment or fundamentals, leading to a significant improvement in the oil transportation market in 2026 [16] - The bulk shipping market is anticipated to recover, driven by environmental regulations limiting the operation of aging fleets and increased production of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and West Africa. The market is expected to enter a "new cycle" [16] - The shipping industry is experiencing a green renewal cycle, with demand driven by shipping market recovery and progress in green updates. The new shipbuilding market is expected to improve as constraints ease [16] Summary by Sections Shipping and Ports - Iran may establish a "safe passage" in the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple countries negotiating with Tehran for ship passage. However, security experts warn of potential delays or seizures by Iranian forces [4] - MSC Group has acquired a 50% stake in Changjin Shipping, supporting aggressive expansion of its VLCC fleet, which is estimated to control 150 VLCCs, significantly impacting market concentration and pricing [5] - The SCFI composite freight index decreased by 0.2% to 1707 points, with varying changes in freight rates across different routes [6] - The BDTI index for VLCC freight rates increased by 0.26% to 2821 points, while TCE rates for VLCCs decreased by 5.9% [7] - The BDI index for bulk carriers increased by 3.2% to 2046 points, indicating a rise in bulk shipping rates [8] - China's port cargo throughput increased by 9.52% to 25.617 million tons, with container throughput rising by 9.27% to 6.6 million TEU [10] Express Logistics - In January-February 2026, the express delivery industry volume grew by 7.1% year-on-year, with significant differentiation in market share among major players [9] - Zhongtong Express reported a stable net profit per ticket and committed to a shareholder return rate of no less than 50% [10] - Shentong plans to issue 3 billion yuan in convertible bonds for logistics network upgrades, with a commitment to distribute at least 30% of profits in cash over the next three years [11] - Price adjustments have been made in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces, reflecting rising operational costs [12] Aviation and Airports - China and Thailand have suspended aviation fuel exports, potentially leading to fuel shortages for airlines [14] - The Ministry of Commerce has announced measures to promote travel service exports and expand inbound consumption [14] Road and Rail - From March 9 to March 15, 2026, national freight logistics operated smoothly, with rail freight increasing by 6.7% and highway truck traffic rising by 14.75% [15]

高树根 gaoshugen@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： 证券研究报告 交通运输 | 航运港口 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 21 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | 月 | | | 03 | | 20 | | 2026 | | 年 | | 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | 12.59 | | | | | | | | | | 一 年 内 | | 最 | 高 | | 16.63 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The current demand in the e-commerce express delivery industry remains resilient, with a top-down "anti-involution" approach driving up express prices, which releases profit elasticity for companies, indicating a favorable competitive opportunity in the medium to long term [13] - The oil transportation sector is expected to benefit from sustained crude oil production and tight capacity, with geopolitical changes potentially continuing to catalyze sentiment or fundamentals, leading to a significant improvement in the oil transportation market in 2026 [13] - The shipping market is anticipated to recover, driven by environmental regulations limiting the operation of older fleets and the continuous increase in iron ore production from Australia, Brazil, and West Africa [13] Summary by Sections Shipping and Ports - The Middle East oil transportation channels are disrupted, leading to the use of alternative pipelines by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which could provide substantial long-distance cargo volumes for oil transportation [4] - The SCFI composite freight index increased by 14.9% week-on-week, with significant increases in freight rates for various routes [4] - The BDI index decreased by 8.8% week-on-week, indicating a decline in bulk shipping rates [6][12] Express Logistics - Major express companies in Sichuan province have raised shipping prices to cope with rising operational costs and to respond to the industry's call for rational pricing [8] - The national express delivery volume is expected to grow by approximately 7.5% year-on-year for January and February, with a steady increase in business volume and revenue [9] Aviation - During the 2026 Spring Festival travel season, civil aviation transported 94.39 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [10] - The ongoing geopolitical situation has led to rising fuel costs for airlines, prompting several companies to increase passenger fuel surcharges and ticket prices [11] Road and Rail - National railway freight volume increased by 6.16% week-on-week, while highway freight traffic saw a significant rise of 40.64% [12] - The revenue from the Gansu-Guangdong Expressway in February 2026 was 348 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [12] Port Operations - The total cargo throughput at Chinese ports decreased by 0.42% week-on-week, while container throughput increased by 1.44% [10][12]