A股明日线索 1、运力紧张推升油轮运费，机构："油运大时代"的高度与持续性或超预期 根据智通财经报道，租用一条超大型油轮（VLCC）把原油从中东运到亚洲的价格，继周二突破17万美元/日后，周三又突破20万美元的关口，续创 2020年以来新高。 同时，据央视财经，在美国与伊朗可能爆发军事冲突的背景下，近期中东地区的原油出口明显走高。由于贸易商们希望在潜在冲突爆发前锁定运 力，近期油轮的运输成本也随之大幅攀升。 2、上游元器件成本的持续攀升，多家手机厂商或将集中涨价 据证券日报，从供应链、行业机构及多家手机厂商内部获悉，2026年中国手机市场正迎来一轮全范围的涨价潮，这也是行业多年来首次出现多品 牌、全品类同步调价的情况。据了解，从3月开始，手机市场涨价节奏将进一步加快。此前已上市的机型价格调整相对温和，今年3月份之后发布的 新品，售价预计普遍上涨1000元以上。其中，中高端旗舰机型涨幅更为明显，部分型号的售价可能比上一代高出2000元至3000元。 本轮手机市场涨价的背后，是上游元器件成本的持续攀升。作为手机核心部件之一的存储芯片，自2024年下半年触底反弹后价格持续走高，2026年 伊始涨幅进一步扩大。供应链 ...

消息面上，据报道，油轮现货运价飙升至近六年新高。周二的最新数据显示，租用一艘超大型油轮（VLCC）将中东 原油运到中国的价格，已经飙升突破每日17万美元，较年初翻了3倍。业内人士指出，除了众所周知的美伊对峙外， 全球原油的供应趋势变化，以及韩国航运公司大举订船等因素均对价格飙升形成助力。 华源证券指，油运基本面持续向好，叠加"长锦因素"和地缘变局催化，"油运大时代"有望来临。该行认为，VLCC运 价在2026年Q1的强势表现是由基本面、供给侧重构和地缘变局，三重趋势性利好推动。本轮"油运大时代"的高度与持 续性有望持续超预期。 编辑/rice 2月25日消息， 涨超7%，股价再创年内新高，截至发稿，报20.26港元，成交额2.58亿港元。 A股触及涨停。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中远海能(01138)涨超6%，截至发稿，涨6.16%，报20港元，成交额1.89亿港元。 消息面上，据报道，油轮现货运价飙升至近六年新高。周二的最新数据显示，租用一艘超大型油轮 （VLCC）将中东原油运到中国的价格，已经飙升突破每日17万美元，较年初翻了3倍。业内人士指 出，除了众所周知的美伊对峙外，全球原油的供应趋势变化，以及韩国航运公司大举订船等因素均对价 格飙升形成助力。 华源证券指，油运基本面持续向好，叠加"长锦因素"和地缘变局催化，"油运大时代"有望来临。该行认 为，VLCC运价在2026年Q1的强势表现是由基本面、供给侧重构和地缘变局，三重趋势性利好推动。本 轮"油运大时代"的高度与持续性有望持续超预期。 ...

华源证券近日发布航运船舶市场系列(十九)：2026年春节期间，VLCC运价高位大涨。2月20日，VLCC 中东线、西非/拉美线、美湾线运价分别为15.7万、13.7万、10.1万美元/日(较2月13日分别大涨28.5%、 28.7%、8.7%)，超过2025年11月时最高水平，创下2020年4月以来的新高。更值得注意的是，VLCC一 年期期租租金在基本面和"长锦因素"催化下，大涨至9.3万美元/日(2月20日，较2月13日大涨28.5%)，创 1988年以来历史新高。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： VLCC运价春节大涨，期租租金创历史新高。2026年春节期间，VLCC运价高位大涨。2月20日，VLCC 中东线、西非/拉美线、美湾线运价分别为15.7万、13.7万、10.1万美元/日(较2月13日分别大涨28.5%、 28.7%、8.7%)，超过2025年11月时最高水平，创下2020年4月以来的新高。更值得注意的是，VLCC一 年期期租租金在基本面和"长锦因素"催化下，大涨至9.3万美元/日(2月20日，较2月13日大涨28.5%)，创 1988年以来历史新高。 "百船王"长锦商船对市场定价的影响初显。V ...

华源证券近日发布航运船舶市场系列（十九）：2026年春节期间，VLCC运价高位大涨。2月20日， VLCC中东线、西非/拉美线、美湾线运价分别为15.7万、13.7万、10.1万美元/日（较2月13日分别大涨 28.5%、28.7%、8.7%），超过2025年11月时最高水平，创下2020年4月以来的新高。更值得注意的是， VLCC一年期期租租金在基本面和"长锦因素"催化下，大涨至9.3万美元/日（2月20日，较2月13日大涨 28.5%），创1988年以来历史新高。 来源：中国能源网 "百船王"长锦商船对市场定价的影响初显。VLCC运价在2026年春节期间的大涨或受"长锦因素"的较大 影响。2月17日，VLCC西非/中东线运价突破12万美元/日大关，当日3个成交货盘中，有2条为长锦运 营。值得注意的是，两条长锦运营的船均在成交前闲置了一段时间，其中的一艘（VLProsperity，2015 年造）甚至闲置了超30天才成交。考虑到VLCC运价对运力供给侧变化高度敏感，控制了120-130条 VLCC的"百船王"长锦商船或正在通过有效供给端影响市场定价。 特朗普对伊朗下"最后通牒"，美军"福特"号航母即将抵达中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Sinokor (长锦商船) plans to sell all its container ships to Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) for approximately $2.5 billion to $3 billion, reallocating funds to the VLCC sector to rapidly expand capacity through "second-hand acquisitions and long-term leases" [1][2] Group 1: Company Strategy - Sinokor aims to exit the container shipping market and heavily invest in VLCC, which is expected to support asset prices and time-charter rates [2] - The company is acquiring second-hand VLCCs at prices 10%-15% above mainstream valuations, with plans to purchase at least 39 second-hand VLCCs by January 2026 [2] - Sinokor is also extending existing charter agreements and entering new leasing contracts with major shipowners [2] Group 2: Market Impact - Sinokor's aggressive expansion is likely to increase industry concentration and reshape pricing logic in the VLCC market [3] - By early 2025, Sinokor and Trafigura may control over 100 VLCCs, representing about 12% of the market share, with actual control potentially reaching 120-130 VLCCs, accounting for 25% of the compliant spot market fleet [3] - The VLCC market is highly sensitive to supply-side disruptions, as evidenced by a significant price spike following sanctions on a major oil transport company [4] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The VLCC supply side is expected to face challenges, with a significant portion of the fleet aging and new deliveries insufficient to meet replacement needs, which may support market conditions in the long term [5] - The current VLCC fleet has 33.8% of its capacity delivered between 2006-2012, which will start reaching 20 years of age in 2026, leading to potential supply shortages [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The fundamentals of oil transportation are improving, and geopolitical changes may catalyze a "big era" for oil shipping [6] - Sinokor's focus on VLCC is expected to stabilize and elevate VLCC freight rates, with recommendations to pay attention to companies like China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SH), COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (600026.SH, 01138), and China Merchants Jinling Shipyard (601975.SH) [6]

Group 1: Transportation Industry - The geopolitical situation may usher in an "oil transportation era," driven by U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, which have significantly reduced oil exports from these countries [2][7][10] - In the short term, Venezuela's oil exports are expected to be limited due to transportation blockades, translating to a demand equivalent to 19 VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) [8] - If U.S. sanctions are lifted, Venezuela's oil exports could reach a historical peak of 2.4 million barrels per day, requiring 141 VLCCs [8] - For Iran, if domestic unrest escalates, oil trade demand may shift to compliant suppliers, equating to a need for 38 VLCCs [9] - The shadow fleet has allowed Russia to maintain oil exports despite sanctions, with potential increases in demand for VLCCs depending on geopolitical developments [10] Group 2: Agriculture and Livestock Industry - The pig farming sector is experiencing a slight recovery, with prices stabilizing around 12.7 yuan/kg, although production capacity is still under pressure [12][13] - The industry is seeing a shift towards protecting farmers' rights and encouraging innovation, which may lead to a more favorable pricing environment for pigs [13] - The chicken industry faces ongoing challenges with high production and weak consumption, but leading companies may gain market share [14] - The feed sector is witnessing price increases, particularly for special water fish, indicating potential growth opportunities for companies like Haida Group [15][16] Group 3: Real Estate Industry - The real estate sector has seen a 5.1% increase, with new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaling 137 million square meters, a 46.7% decrease from the previous period [23][24] - The government is expanding public rental housing and relaxing housing fund policies to stimulate demand [25] - The market sentiment is improving, with potential for a new wave of value reassessment among Hong Kong developers [27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical changes are expected to usher in an "Oil Shipping Era" [3] - The U.S. military action against Venezuela may promote the compliance of Venezuelan oil trade, with short-term impacts limiting exports and shifting demand to compliant regions, equivalent to a demand for 19 VLCCs [4] - If U.S. sanctions on Venezuela are lifted, oil exports could reach 2.4 million barrels per day, requiring 141 VLCCs [4] - Iran's oil exports face dual pressures from domestic unrest and U.S. threats, with potential demand shifts to compliant markets equating to a need for 38 VLCCs [4] - Russia's oil exports are maintained through shadow fleets, with potential sanctions impacting 1.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to 36 VLCCs [4] - The new geopolitical landscape highlights the strategic value of oil shipping, with demand expected to improve in the short to medium term [4] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Impact on Oil Shipping - The geopolitical situation is reshaping global oil trade flows, expanding the compliant oil shipping market [4] - Short-term supply changes due to geopolitical conflicts may support shipping rates [4] - The dual logic of trade flow restructuring and compliance transformation is expected to drive demand in the oil shipping industry [4] Demand Projections - Venezuela: - Short-term demand shift due to transport restrictions: 19 VLCCs - Medium-term demand if sanctions are lifted: 46 VLCCs - Long-term potential peak exports: 141 VLCCs [4] - Iran: - Short-term demand shift due to unrest: 38 VLCCs - Long-term potential peak exports: 57 VLCCs [4] - Russia: - Potential sanctions impact: 36 VLCCs - If sanctions are lifted, demand could increase significantly [4]