中金公司研究部、中金研究院随同国际金融协会（IIF）调研团于2025年10月6日至10月9日赴印度（孟买、德里）进行了为期四天的深度调研，针对印度 宏观经济和金融的现状与展望，主要观点如下： 印度的规模禀赋和增长潜力彰显投资吸引力 印度是近年来增长最快的大型经济体之一，庞大年轻人口规模和较低人均资本存量蕴藏着较大的发展空间。地处南亚次大陆，印度也是地缘竞争中重要的 大国合作对象。近年来，印度作为全球投资者组合再平衡的优质选项，股指持续增长并吸引资金流入，备受瞩目。 美国加征关税对印度的影响有限 2025年特朗普政府对全球加征关税给印度经济带来的负面冲击整体可控。一是由于印度是典型内需型而非外向型经济体，二是目前加征关税多发生在货物 贸易领域，印度是货物贸易逆差、服务贸易顺差，影响相对可控，未来需留意美国可能加征服务外包税对印度优势领域的影响。 为应对美国加征关税，印度再次改革商品服务税以刺激国内消费，生产和投资延续增长势头，同时印度积极与更多贸易投资伙伴签署合作协议，有助于打 开美国以外的新市场。 Abstract 摘要 内部政策与改革有望主要贡献印度经济增长 内部改革是释放印度经济增长动能的关键因素。短期看 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant outflow of talent from India, particularly in the tech and medical fields, and the government's efforts to reverse this trend through various initiatives aimed at attracting Indian professionals back to the country [4][5][10]. Group 1: Talent Outflow - Many top Indian talents, including over 20,000 IIT alumni, have chosen to work abroad, particularly in the U.S., which poses a challenge to India's goal of becoming a developed nation by 2047 [4][5]. - The U.S. H-1B visa restrictions and academic policies have created a turbulent environment for global talent movement, potentially benefiting India's "Bring Back the Phoenix" initiatives [5][11]. - In the AI sector, only 1% of the world's top AI researchers from India remain in the country, while in the medical field, around 70,000 Indian-trained doctors practice abroad, leading to a significant shortage of healthcare professionals domestically [11][12]. Group 2: Government Initiatives - The Modi government has launched several policies to attract talent back to India, including initiatives like "Make in India," "Digital India," and "Startup India," aimed at creating a conducive environment for innovation [13][14]. - The government is also promoting the Overseas Citizen of India (OCI) program, offering tax incentives and grants to encourage Indian expatriates to reintegrate into the Indian economy [13][14]. - Specific scholarship programs, such as the VAIBHAV scholarship, have been established to facilitate collaboration between overseas Indian scientists and Indian institutions [14][17]. Group 3: Success Stories and Challenges - There has been a noticeable increase in the return of Indian professionals, including entrepreneurs and scientists, with about 20% of India's unicorn startups having founders educated in the U.S. [17]. - Despite the positive trends, challenges remain, including the need for improved research infrastructure and regulatory environments to retain returning talent [19][20]. - Historical examples, such as the successful transformation of India's automotive industry through the return of Indian engineers from the U.S., highlight the potential benefits of attracting talent back to India [20].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of India's first semiconductor manufacturing plant in Gujarat marks a significant step towards self-reliance in semiconductor production, reducing dependence on foreign suppliers and enhancing the local electronics industry [1][3]. Group 1: Semiconductor Plant Overview - The semiconductor plant, a collaboration between Tata Electronics and Taiwan's PSMC, will begin production in December 2026 [1]. - The plant will produce various semiconductor chips, including 14nm, 28nm, 40nm, 55nm, and 65nm, catering to multiple applications [6][7]. Group 2: Benefits to India - The plant will help India achieve self-sufficiency in semiconductor supply, mitigating supply chain risks highlighted during the COVID-19 pandemic [3]. - It supports the "Make in India" and "Digital India" initiatives, positioning India as a producer rather than just a consumer of semiconductors [3]. - The project is expected to create over 20,000 direct and indirect jobs, benefiting engineers, technicians, and support staff [3]. Group 3: Tata's Plans and Infrastructure Development - Tata is committed to ensuring the project's success, having sent over 200 employees to Taiwan for advanced training in semiconductor manufacturing [9]. - The Gujarat government is constructing 1,500 residential units, schools, hospitals, and a desalination plant to support Tata's workforce and suppliers [9]. - Additionally, Tata is building a second OSAT plant in Assam, valued at ₹270 billion, which will create 27,000 jobs and is expected to be operational by mid-2025 [9]. Group 4: Global Context - Taiwan currently dominates the global semiconductor market, accounting for 60% of manufacturing capacity, with TSMC alone producing nearly half of the world's semiconductors [10].