刚刚过去的7月，日本"高烧不断"。日本气象厅数据显示，尤其是7月30日这天，西部兵库县丹波市最高 气温达到41.2摄氏度，创日本高温新纪录。另有至少三地当天的气温达到或超过40摄氏度，多地达到或 超过39摄氏度。发表在《环境研究快报》上的最新研究显示，极端天气正在推高全球许多基本食品的价 格，并带来更广泛的社会风险。其中，2024年席卷东亚的热浪导致韩国白菜价格同比上涨70%，日本价 格上涨48%等。该研究警示，极端天气条件推高食品价格，从而加剧整体通胀，对全球经济影响产生变 数。(第一财经) ...

Group 1 - Overall inflation met expectations with a seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month increase of 0.3%, marking the largest single-month rise since January. This led to an unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate of 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May, driven by rising food and energy prices [1] - Core inflation was below expectations, with a seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month increase of 0.2%, remaining below the median forecast for the fifth consecutive month. The year-on-year core CPI rose by 2.9%, slightly up from 2.8% in the previous three months, meeting expectations [1] - Key components of core inflation were suppressed due to declines in new and used car prices, as well as decreases in airfare and accommodation costs. Housing prices showed relative moderation, with a monthly increase of 0.2%. The impact of tariff increases was evident in several categories, with furniture prices rising by 1%, the largest increase since January 2022; video and audio product prices up by 1.1%, the largest since February last year; and toy prices increasing by 1.8%, the largest since April 2021 [1] - Rate cut pricing remained unchanged, as higher tariff rates are expected to take effect from August. Economists indicated that the June inflation report is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates earlier. Futures markets still suggest a significant possibility of the Fed restarting rate cuts in September [1] Group 2 - Following the report's release, the U.S. two-year Treasury yield retraced slight gains, gold experienced volatility, and the three major U.S. stock indices opened mixed [2]

日本央行新任委员Masu：对于日本央行"整体通胀仍未达到2%"的观点没有强烈异议。 ...

美联储威廉姆斯：整体通胀接近2%，但基础通胀仍然偏高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The impact of a 10% tariff on all imported goods on overall inflation is limited, as tariffs cannot be fully passed on to consumers [1] Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that tariffs will not be completely passed on to consumers, indicating a limited effect on inflation [1] - The overall inflationary impact of imposing a 10% tariff on all imports is considered to be minimal [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda anticipates a cooling of overall inflation due to tariff measures and a slowdown in global economic growth [1] Group 1 - The expectation of inflation moderation is linked to external factors such as tariff policies [1] - Global economic growth slowdown is identified as a contributing factor to the anticipated decline in inflation [1]