新华财经消息，日本央行19日将政策利率上调25个基点至0.75%。此举获得政策委员会全体成员一致通 过，使日本基准利率达到自1995年9月以来的最高水平，正式终结持续近三十年的超低利率时代。 日本央行行长植田和男在记者会上系统阐述了加息的决策依据，并就汇率、中性利率、中小企业状况及 全球政策协调等关键议题作出回应。他重申："我们今天加息，是因为通胀和增长率的下行风险均已降 低。" 植田和男明确表示，日本央行"将密切关注日元疲软对基础通胀的影响"，同时强调"不对汇率水平置 评"。这一表态凸显央行在避免直接干预汇市的同时，高度重视汇率变动对国内价格传导机制的潜在作 用。 植田和男向市场传递出政策已进入"数据驱动的正常化阶段"，而非一次性调整的信号。日本货币政策已 不可逆地转向正常化，但将以高度数据依赖、风险权衡和渐进节奏推进。市场不应期待激进紧缩，但也 需彻底告别"无限宽松"的旧范式。 这一立场既回应了国内通胀机制变化的现实，也试图在全球货币政 策分化加剧的背景下，维护日本金融稳定的自主性与可信度。 不过，Investinglive 分析师 Justin Low 对植田和男是否会再次对日本政府采取强硬"反击"姿态 ...

针对市场广泛关注的中性利率问题，植田和男坦言："各国央行在不知道确切中性利率的情况下就做出 了利率决定。"他承认："不能否认加息幅度超出中性利率的风险，但我们可以通过仔细审视数据来最小 化这种风险。"他还重申："难以准确界定中性利率区间"，并指出当前政策利率"距离中性利率区间的下 限仍有一定距离"。 植田和男特别提到，日本央行资产负债表的存量效应仍在发挥作用。"日本央行持有的日本国债的存量 效应仍在一定程度上发挥作用"，这意味着即便在加息周期中，宽松金融环境仍将延续一段时间。 日本央行19日将政策利率上调25个基点至0.75%。此举获得政策委员会全体成员一致通过，使日本基准 利率达到自1995年9月以来的最高水平，正式终结持续近三十年的超低利率时代。 日本央行行长植田和男在记者会上系统阐述了加息的决策依据，并就汇率、中性利率、中小企业状况及 全球政策协调等关键议题作出回应。他重申："我们今天加息，是因为通胀和增长率的下行风险均已降 低。" 植田和男明确表示，日本央行"将密切关注日元疲软对基础通胀的影响"，同时强调"不对汇率水平置 评"。这一表态凸显央行在避免直接干预汇市的同时，高度重视汇率变动对国内价格传导机 ...

Group 1 - China's manufacturing PMI for November will be released on December 1, with the previous index at 50.6 indicating continued expansion but slowing growth, raising questions about the sustainability of the recovery [1] - The official reserve asset data for China will be published on December 7, with October's gold reserves reported at 74.09 million ounces, marking a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces and a 12-month consecutive increase in gold holdings [1] - The US Federal Reserve has entered a quiet period ahead of its meeting on December 9-10, shifting market focus to the delayed release of the September PCE report on December 5, with expectations of a slight decrease in core PCE month-on-month to 0.22% and a year-on-year growth rate steady at 2.9% [1] Group 2 - The US will release the ISM manufacturing index for November on December 1, with expectations of a slight increase from 48.7 to 49.0, still in contraction territory, but supported by improved employment and inventory factors [2] - The Bank of Japan's Governor will speak on December 1, with market attention on his assessment of the preliminary momentum of the "Shunto" wage negotiations and core inflation returning to 2%, which could signal a strong indication for a rate hike in December [2] - A total of 35 companies in the A-share market will have their restricted shares unlocked next week, totaling 3.591 billion shares, with an estimated market value exceeding 58 billion yuan based on the latest closing prices [2] Group 3 - The 2025 AI + Industry Ecosystem Conference will be held in Beijing from December 1 to 3, with the theme "Intelligent Empowerment and Ecological Resonance" [3] - The launch event for the Livis AI glasses by Li Auto is scheduled for December 3 at 19:30 [4] - XREAL and Google are set to release the AR glasses Project Aura in December, with the exact date yet to be determined [5] Group 4 - Samsung's first tri-fold smartphone, the Galaxy Z TriFold, is expected to be officially launched on December 5 [6] - A busy earnings report period for the AI industry is anticipated, with Credo disclosing its results on December 2, Marvell on December 3, and C3.ai and Salesforce on December 4 [6] - Other companies such as ZTE, Montreal Bank, Scotiabank, Canadian National Bank, Crowdstrike, and Huiyu Technology are also scheduled to release their earnings reports next week [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports the FOMC's potential interest rate cut in December for "risk management" purposes, highlighting a weak labor market and stagnant economic conditions [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. labor market remains weak, approaching stagnation [1] - Excluding tariff impacts, core inflation is close to the 2% target [1] - Mid-term and long-term inflation expectations are anchored [1] Group 2: GDP and Housing Market - After excluding the effects of the government shutdown, GDP may slow down in the second half of 2025 [1] - Many households are struggling to afford homes and cars [1] Group 3: Employment Trends - The demand for workers is decreasing at a faster rate than the decline in supply [1] - Many companies are laying off employees or allowing headcount to decrease [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is laying the groundwork for a potential interest rate hike, acknowledging the risk of broad-based inflation due to persistent food price increases [2][5] Group 1: BOJ's Policy Direction - The BOJ's recent comments indicate a shift towards a more hawkish stance, suggesting that the central bank is preparing to act on interest rates after a period of inaction [2][3] - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that the decision to raise rates will depend on the likelihood of core inflation reaching the 2% target, rather than waiting for it to be firmly established [2][3] - Analysts predict that the BOJ may raise rates in upcoming meetings, with a 54% chance of a hike to 0.75% in October and a 71% chance by December [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Inflation Risks - The BOJ has revised its inflation outlook, indicating that the risks to price stability are now balanced, contrasting with previous assessments that highlighted downside risks [4] - The central bank is particularly focused on the second-round effects of rising food prices, which could lead to broader inflationary pressures [5][6] - Recent data shows a significant increase in food prices, with 1,010 food and beverage items rising in August and over 3,000 expected to increase in October [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's report indicates that due to slowing economic growth, core inflation may stagnate but is expected to gradually accelerate thereafter [1] Economic Growth - Economic growth in Japan is currently experiencing a slowdown, which is impacting inflation trends [1] Inflation Trends - The report suggests that while core inflation may stagnate in the short term, there is an expectation for a gradual increase in inflation rates in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that core inflation is currently below the price target set by the central bank [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's current core inflation rate is lower than the target, indicating potential challenges in achieving desired inflation levels [1] - Ueda emphasized the need for continued monitoring of economic conditions to assess inflation trends [1] - The statement reflects ongoing concerns regarding Japan's economic recovery and inflation dynamics [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Williams stated that overall inflation is nearing 2%, but core inflation remains elevated [1] Group 1 - Overall inflation is approaching the target rate of 2% [1] - Core inflation, which excludes volatile items, is still considered high [1]

Core Insights - The Brazilian Central Bank has indicated that recent data shows core inflation and underlying inflation metrics remain above the inflation target [1] Summary by Category - **Inflation Metrics** - Core inflation and underlying inflation indicators are currently higher than the established inflation target [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that rising food prices may influence core inflation by either affecting wages or making price increases easier [1] Group 1 - Rising food prices are a potential factor in influencing core inflation metrics [1] - The relationship between food prices and wages could lead to broader inflationary pressures [1] - The Bank of Japan is monitoring these developments closely to assess their impact on monetary policy [1]