2025 年 12 月 29 日 星期一 ➢ 每日大市点评 12 月 24 日，周三港股仅交易半天。恒生指数呈现窄幅震荡，最终上升 44 点（0.2%），收报 25,818 点；恒生科技指数 升 10 点（0.2%），收盘报 5,499 点；半天成交 952 亿元。南向资金净流出 11.8 亿元。周三半导体个股走强，据报道称， 中芯国际（981 HK）以对部分产能实施涨价，涨幅约 10%,中芯国际走强，盘中一度上涨 5%。有报道称，明年一月将近 2200 班来往中日的航班取消，导致航空股下跌。 美股方面，上周五因假日走势平静。三大指数窄幅波动，市场情绪受到美国经济韧性和企业盈利预期支撑，但同时假期 因素导致投资者参与度较低。道琼斯指数收盘跌 20 点（0.01%），报 48,710 点；纳斯达克指数跌 20 点（0.1%），报 23,593 点；标普 500 指数跌 2 点，收报 6,929 点。能源板块下跌，国际油价在节后小幅回落，加上市场对全球经济增长 放缓可能抑制能源需求的担忧，埃克森美孚（XOM US）跌 0.1%；雪佛龙（CVX US）跌 0.3%。 行业动态： 汽车板块：禾赛科技（2525 HK） ...

人民财讯12月27日电，12月27日，嘉实财富副总经理邝霞在三亚.财经国际论坛上表示，在全球经济增 长放缓的今天，单靠一类资产很难提供账户所需收益，投资者需通过多元资产配置穿越周期。她指出， 债券是账户的"压舱石"，美联储已开启降息周期，投资级债券有了估值优势；股票则是增长的引擎，特 别是AI科技与硬科技领域。此外，在全球不确定性增大的今天，黄金等商品的配置价值凸显，可作为 风险对冲工具。同时，像铜、稀土等受益于全球AI基础建设投资的商品，也具有良好前景。 ...

Core Insights - Japanese chemical companies are facing a decline in both revenue and profit due to multiple market challenges, including global economic slowdown and uncertainties from U.S. trade policies [1][4] Company Performance Summary - **Mitsubishi Chemical**: Achieved a remarkable net profit increase of 169% year-on-year, rising from 40.9 billion yen to 110.1 billion yen, despite a 10.5% decline in revenue to 1.79 trillion yen. The company benefited from China's economic stimulus and positive fiscal spending in some European countries, but overall economic growth remains under pressure due to U.S. trade policies [1] - **Shin-Etsu Chemical**: Experienced a slight revenue increase of 1.4% to 1.28 trillion yen, but net profit fell by 12.3% to 257.8 billion yen, with operating profit down 17.7% to 333.9 billion yen. The company attributed its performance challenges to global economic turmoil caused by U.S. policies and recent export control measures from China [1] - **Toray Industries**: Reported a significant net profit drop of 25% to 58.1 billion yen, with revenue declining by 4.6% to 1.23 trillion yen. The fiber and textile segment showed resilience with a 1.7% increase in operating profit, but the industrial applications market has not fully recovered, prompting the company to initiate cost-cutting measures [2] - **Sumitomo Chemical**: Achieved a turnaround with net profit of 39.6 billion yen, compared to a net loss of 6.5 billion yen in the previous year, despite an 11.8% revenue decline to 1 trillion yen. The core business and green materials segment faced challenges due to maintenance shutdowns and exit from aluminum business, leading to a 27% revenue drop in that segment [2] - **Mitsui Chemicals**: Experienced a significant revenue decline of 8.6% to 813.6 billion yen and a drastic net profit drop of 65% to 7.8 billion yen. The decline was attributed to lower product prices due to falling raw material costs, reduced sales in core and green materials, and impairment losses related to investments in phenol business in China [3] - **Asahi Kasei**: Reported a 7% revenue decline to 637.8 billion yen and a 33.3% drop in operating profit to 31 billion yen. While sales in the electronics sector contributed positively, negative factors such as inventory valuation adjustments and maintenance shutdowns offset gains [3] - **Tosoh**: Showed poor performance with a 5.4% revenue decline to 499.1 billion yen and a 70.4% drop in net profit to 7.3 billion yen. The decline was driven by a stronger yen, lower product prices due to falling raw material costs, and reduced shipments due to extended maintenance at its Nanyo plant [3] Industry Overview - Overall, Japanese chemical companies are under significant pressure from U.S. trade policy uncertainties, weak global demand, raw material price fluctuations, and periodic maintenance of production facilities. Only a few companies have managed to achieve localized improvements through business structure optimization or breakthroughs in niche markets [4]

报告指出，全球贸易逾90%依赖银行融资。美元流动性与跨境支付系统对国际贸易活动同样至关重 要。这种对金融渠道的深度依赖使贸易和全球金融货币环境紧密相连。主要金融中心利率变动或投资者 情绪波动，都可能影响全球贸易量。报告还强调了大宗商品市场，尤其是粮食市场上日益增强的金融因 素，其定价越来越反映金融策略而非供求关系。 联合国贸易和发展会议(贸发会议)12月2日发布的《2025年贸易和发展报告》预计，2025年全球经 济增长将放缓至2.6%，低于2024年的2.9%。报告重点关注了金融对贸易的影响，指出金融市场波动对 全球贸易的影响力几乎与实体经济活动相当，并影响全球的发展前景。 报告认为，由于发展中经济体在全球金融市场中的作用依然有限，所以他们也面临日益上升的压 力，包括更高的融资成本、更易受资本流动突变影响，以及日益加剧的气候相关金融风险。这些因素限 制了维持发展中经济体增长所需的财政和投资空间。报告指出，地缘政治格局与政策转向正重塑全球化 进程，而金融体系必须调整以更好地服务实体经济需要。 联合国贸发会议秘书长格林斯潘表示，研究结果表明金融环境正日益主导全球贸易走向，"贸易不 仅是一条供应链，更是信贷额度、 ...

·欧元区通胀略超预期降息预期降温 【资讯导读】 ·联合国贸发会议预警：2025年全球增长将放缓至2.6% ·经合组织维持全球增长预期警示多重风险 ·特朗普拟2026年初敲定美联储主席哈西特成热门人选 ·英国央行警告AI投资热潮或引发金融风险 【市场资讯】 ·联合国贸易和发展会议（UNCTAD）在《2025年贸易和发展报告》中预测，全球经济增长将从2024年 的2.9%放缓至2025年的2.6%。报告强调，金融市场波动如今对全球贸易的影响几乎与实体经济相当， 可能严重制约发展中国家的复苏前景。 ·经合组织（OECD）最新经济展望维持2024年和2025年全球经济增长预测分别为3.2%和2.9%。美国、 欧元区增速分别预计为2.0%/1.7%和1.3%/1.2%。报告指出，尽管全球经济展现超预期韧性，但贸易壁垒 加剧、人工智能投资泡沫及财政脆弱性仍是主要下行风险。 ·美国总统特朗普表示计划于2026年初公布下一任美联储主席人选。据被称为"新美联储通讯社"的《华 尔街日报》记者Nick Timiraos报道，尽管正式面试仍在进行，但特朗普已倾向于任命白宫国家经济委员 会主任凯文·哈西特（Kevin Hassett） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growing recognition of China's innovation and technology capabilities by the local business community in Hong Kong, emphasizing the potential for collaboration through Hong Kong as a gateway to mainland China and the broader Asian market [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - During the recent IMF and World Bank meetings, concerns were raised about the global economic outlook, with the IMF revising its growth forecast for 2023 to 3.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous year, and predicting a further slowdown to 3.1% in 2024 [3]. - Many economies are facing rising debt pressures, with advanced and emerging markets increasingly burdened by high-interest rates, raising concerns about the sustainability of public finances and limiting government spending [3][4]. Group 2: Opportunities Amid Challenges - Despite challenges such as trade conflicts, there are emerging opportunities, particularly in Asia, where countries are adjusting their economic structures and enhancing intra-regional trade, potentially increasing the region's GDP by 1.4% in the long term [4]. - The article notes that Hong Kong is actively promoting financial and technological development, integrating regional supply chains, and attracting businesses and talent, which positions it as a strategic hub for collaboration [4]. Group 3: Investment Landscape - The Hong Kong investment management company has invested in over 130 projects, with each HKD invested attracting approximately 6 HKD in market co-investment, indicating a robust investment environment [6]. - The Hong Kong financial market has seen significant activity, with daily trading volumes and foreign capital inflows surpassing previous records, reflecting international investors' confidence in the region [6]. Group 4: Trade Policy - Hong Kong maintains its status as a free port with a commitment to open and predictable trade policies, despite recent escalations in trade tensions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained its key interest rate at zero, the lowest among major central banks, in response to the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Swiss economy [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decision - The decision to keep the interest rate at zero aligns with market expectations and follows a slight increase in inflation over recent months [1] - This marks the first pause in rate cuts after seven consecutive meetings, with the SNB having started to lower rates in March 2024 [1] Economic Forecast - The SNB projects Swiss GDP growth for 2025 to be between 1% and 1.5%, an increase from the previous forecast of 1.0% to 1.5% [1] - The inflation rate for 2025 is expected to remain at 0.2%, unchanged from prior predictions [1] Global Economic Impact - The SNB anticipates a slowdown in global economic growth in the first half of 2025, influenced by U.S. tariffs and ongoing high uncertainty [1] - It is expected that U.S. inflation will remain elevated for some time, while inflation in the Eurozone is projected to stay near target levels [1] Swiss Economic Outlook - The outlook for the Swiss economy has worsened due to significantly increased U.S. tariffs, which are likely to suppress exports and investments [1] - In the current environment, the unemployment rate in Switzerland is expected to continue rising [1]

Group 1 - Global economic growth is slowing down, entering a "low growth era" due to factors like aging population, de-globalization, and restructuring of international supply chains [2][9] - Traditional wealth accumulation methods, such as real estate investment, are losing effectiveness, with stagnant property prices in many cities [5][8] - The stock market is experiencing structural differentiation, making it difficult for investors to achieve significant returns [5][6] Group 2 - A new wealth preservation logic is emerging, emphasizing cash flow management, diversified asset allocation, and a global investment perspective [6][9] - There is a growing need for individuals to acquire professional knowledge and rational planning to navigate the changing investment landscape [8][9] - The focus is shifting from wealth accumulation to wealth protection, ensuring that assets can keep pace with inflation [8][9]

Core Insights - Moody's report on global macro outlook for 2025-26 indicates a loss of momentum in global economic growth, with emerging and frontier markets, particularly in East Africa, facing increased risks from uncertainty and policy changes [1] Economic Growth - The report forecasts a slowdown in global economic growth for this year and next as economies adapt to significant shifts in trade, fiscal, monetary, and immigration policies [1] Trade and Investment - Ongoing instability in the global trade system and adjustments in monetary policy may exert pressure on investment, exports, and employment in developing economies [1] - Heightened trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and a slowdown in global economic growth could hinder foreign direct investment into developing economies, especially in East Africa, limiting capital inflows for infrastructure, innovation, and job creation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing market uncertainty due to global economic slowdown, geopolitical risks, and fluctuating central bank policies, highlighting the potential for a revaluation of gold as a safe-haven asset in this complex environment [1]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Real interest rates are a crucial variable for observing gold price trends. As central banks tighten policies under high inflation, gold often faces pressure due to the lack of interest returns. However, if rates approach a peak or enter a downward trend, the decline in real returns could significantly enhance gold's pricing foundation [3]. - The performance of the US dollar and global liquidity patterns also impact gold. A temporary weakening of the dollar may lead to increased allocation of international funds towards gold and other non-dollar assets. Additionally, the trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is strengthening, as official purchases are becoming a key support for gold prices [3]. Group 2: Shifts in Gold Investment Logic - Current market valuation logic for gold is shifting from "short-term hedging" to "medium to long-term allocation." While risk aversion can drive short-term price increases, the long-term value of gold is supported by real interest rates, central bank demand, and the broader liquidity environment [5]. - Overall, the investment logic surrounding gold is becoming more diversified, serving as both a defensive asset during turbulent times and a structural beneficiary amid changes in interest rates and liquidity cycles [5].