今年新兴市场货币整体表现不俗：摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场货币指数7月创下历史新高，年内涨幅已超6%，有望迎来2017年以来的最佳 年度成绩。接受路透社采访的交易员、基金经理和分析师大多预计，这一良好态势在明年也将延续。 MSCI新兴市场货币指数上涨 匈牙利福林向来是小众的新兴市场货币，但自美国总统特朗普今年1月就职以来，其交易量已增长超一倍。在特朗普宣布全面的"解放日"进口 关税政策后，交易员对这一货币的关注度更是持续攀升。 在日均交易量近10万亿美元的全球外汇市场中，交易员、策略师及对冲基金均表示，此番交易量增长绝非短期偶然现象。 今年以来，匈牙利福林兑美元汇率已升值约20%，有望创下近25年来的最佳年度表现，同时跻身2025年表现最佳的新兴市场货币之列。 此次新兴市场货币走强，源于美元波动加剧且持续走软。这一态势促使投资者重新考量自身的美元资产敞口，且开始质疑长期以来对美元走 向与地位的固有认知。与此同时，投资者在推进资产配置多元化、减少对美国资产依赖的过程中，押注南非、匈牙利等多个发展中国家的货 币价值将进一步提升。 摩根大通新兴市场固定收益策略研究主管乔尼·古尔登（Jonny Goulden）称："我 ...

【12月5日法国预测2026年美元回归，多币种汇率将有变动】12月5日，法国方面表示，因美国中期增长 前景未受影响，2026年美元将回归。策略师报告称，预计2025年四季度美国增长放缓，未来几周及2026 年初令美元承压，但美国中期增长前景未恶化。 该行预测，2026年一季度，欧元兑美元汇率将达1.20， 年底将跌至1.14。受美国关税政策影响，加元明年或成G10货币中表现最差币种。 2026年全年，在美元 走强背景下，许多新兴市场货币即期汇率表现将恶化。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

法国兴业银行表示，由于美国中期经济增长前景未受影响，2026 年美元将回归。包括基特・贾克斯 （Kit Juckes）在内的策略师在一份报告中写道："我们预计，2025 年第四季度美国经济增长放缓将在未 来几周及 2026 年初令美元承压，但我们认为美国中期经济增长前景并未恶化。"该行预测，到 2026 年 第一季度，欧元兑美元（EUR/USD）汇率将达到 1.20，但到 2026 年底将跌至 1.14。受美国关税政策影 响，加元（加拿大元）可能成为明年十国集团（G10）货币中表现最差的币种。2026 年全年，在美元走 强的背景下，许多新兴市场（EM）货币的即期汇率表现将出现恶化。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The FOMC meeting cut the federal funds rate target range by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% as expected and ended the balance - sheet reduction plan in December, marking the end of the quantitative tightening phase. The policy has entered a new transition stage of "stop easing → observe and evaluate", with the future interest - rate path becoming more uncertain [2][3]. - After the resolution, the market re - priced interest rates, exchange rates, and risk assets due to Powell's hawkish remarks. The market focused on the uncertainty of future interest - rate cuts behind the end of balance - sheet reduction. If macro data does not deteriorate significantly before December, the market's trading logic for interest - rate cuts will be more cautious [4]. 3. Section Summaries FOMC Meeting Results - The FOMC meeting cut the federal funds rate by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00% and will end the balance - sheet reduction plan in December, with internal differences on interest - rate decisions, indicating increased uncertainty about the future interest - rate path [2][3]. - Powell emphasized that whether to cut interest rates in December depends on data, and the policy orientation has shifted to stronger data dependence. There are upward short - term inflation disturbances from tariffs, but they are expected to be temporary [3]. - The Fed has not determined the details of the balance - sheet duration structure adjustment but will gradually tilt towards short - duration allocation [3]. Market Reaction - After the Fed's decision, the market initially had a mild reaction, but then quickly re - priced due to Powell's hawkish remarks. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose by over 7bp to 4.06%, the 2 - year yield rose by over 10bp, U.S. stocks fell, gold declined, emerging - market currencies were under pressure, and Bitcoin significantly corrected [4]. - The market focused on the uncertainty of future interest - rate cuts, and if macro data does not deteriorate significantly before December, the trading logic for interest - rate cuts will be more cautious, and interest - rate fluctuations and cross - asset misalignment will remain highly elastic [4]. Economic Data Forecast (SEP Outlook) - Forecasts for real GDP, unemployment rate, PCE, core PCE, and interest rates from 2025 - 2028 are provided, and compared with June's predictions, showing changes in economic data expectations [30].

Core Viewpoint - HSBC maintains a "risk-on" stance for the last four months of 2025, recommending an overweight position in high-yield bonds and equities, particularly favoring U.S. stocks [1] Economic Recovery - The U.S. economy shows clear signs of accelerated recovery, with Q2 GDP revised to an annualized growth rate of 3.3%, supported mainly by consumer spending [2] - High-frequency macro and micro data continue to improve, contrasting with market expectations, which supports HSBC's risk-on stance [2] - However, inflation pressures are a concern, with core PCE inflation rising to 2.9% in July, the highest since February [2] Hawkish Risks - Despite potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, market expectations for future policy are considered overly dovish, with projections indicating about 5.5 rate cuts by December 2026 [3] - If hawkish risks materialize, it may not negatively impact risk assets, as strong economic data could be interpreted positively by the market [3] Positive Outlook on Risk Assets - HSBC remains positive on high-yield bonds and equities, particularly U.S. stocks, citing factors such as the widespread application of AI and signs of economic recovery supporting sensitive sectors [4] - The S&P 500 index is expected to see further gains, while small-cap stocks (Russell 2000) are currently viewed as less attractive [4] Corporate Earnings and AI Impact - Q2 earnings for the S&P 500 exceeded expectations, with an 81% beat rate and a year-over-year growth rate of 11.9%, marking three consecutive quarters of double-digit growth [5] - AI has significantly impacted corporate performance, with 44 S&P 500 companies achieving a 1.5% reduction in operating costs and a 24% increase in efficiency through AI applications [5] Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - Current market sentiment shows a moderate sell signal, but the likelihood of a significant short-term pullback is low due to a lack of fundamental triggers [6] - Risk asset inflows are slowly recovering, which is expected to support risk assets [6]

Core Viewpoint - The bond pricing mechanism is becoming distorted due to a combination of optimistic economic sentiment and an environment of "excess funds and scarce assets," leading to historically low compensation required by bond investors for taking on default risk [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The credit spread between high-risk assets and safe assets like U.S. Treasuries is narrowing globally, with the risk premium for investment-grade corporate bonds dropping to 81 basis points, close to the lowest level since 2007 [3]. - The absolute yield of bonds is attracting institutional investors such as pension funds and insurance companies, who are seeking to lock in relatively attractive returns [1][3]. - The phenomenon of "yield chasing" is evident as investors pursue higher coupon yield assets, extending their focus from corporate bonds to emerging market currencies [1][3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Behavior - The "Fear of Missing Out" (FOMO) is driving investor sentiment across all asset classes, with global indices, gold, and Bitcoin reaching historical highs [5]. - Despite concerns about high valuations in the credit market, many investors are still looking for ways to enhance yields, viewing the public and liquid credit market as a relatively high-quality option [5][6]. - The issuance of bonds, such as Allianz's $12.5 billion perpetual bond, demonstrates the intense demand, with the offering receiving $12.5 billion in oversubscriptions [5]. Group 3: Emerging Market Trends - Emerging market dollar bonds have seen their risk premium drop below 260 basis points for the first time since 2013, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [6]. - Asian investment-grade dollar bond spreads have narrowed to 60 basis points, marking a historical low and less than half of the average over the past decade [6]. - Concerns are raised about the indiscriminate buying behavior in the market, which may overlook the distinction between creditworthy issuers and those with potential risks [6][7]. Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - There are warnings about the fragility of the current market conditions, with predictions that the risk premium for investment-grade corporate bonds could widen to 130-140 basis points within the next 12 months [7][9]. - Recent U.S. employment data indicating economic slowdown and weakening service sector sentiment could act as triggers for a market shift [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has shown resilience recently, with a 3.4% increase in July, ending a streak of declines, despite a disappointing non-farm payroll report [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 2.7% in July, breaking a six-month downward trend [1] - Emerging market currencies, represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index, fell by 1.2% [1] - The Taiwanese dollar has appreciated approximately 9.5% this year, leading Asian currencies, while the South Korean won has risen nearly 6% [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The rebound of the dollar has led some emerging market investors to believe that the dollar will continue to rise in the coming months [1] - Barclays Bank has advised clients to avoid shorting the dollar against other Asian currencies [1] - Fidelity International noted that prolonged high US interest rates reduce the attractiveness of borrowing dollars for arbitrage trading [1] Group 3: Emerging Market Currency Dynamics - The volatility of emerging market currencies is at its lowest in a year, which diminishes demand for Asian currencies in favor of higher-yielding European and Latin American currencies [2] - The average interest rate differential for Asian currencies is negative 1.1%, indicating higher holding costs compared to potential returns from holding dollars [5] - Latin American currencies have a positive interest rate differential of 3.7%, while European and African currencies have a positive differential of 1.1% [5] Group 4: Market Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding US tariffs continues to impact the attractiveness of emerging market currencies, despite some agreements reached with major trading partners [6] - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains a key factor influencing the dollar's trajectory [6]

Core Insights - The return of carry trades is driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and higher interest rates in emerging markets [1][2][3] - Significant inflows into emerging market bonds have been observed, with a weekly inflow of $1.7 billion as of August 6 [1] - Eighteen out of twenty-three major emerging market currencies have appreciated against the dollar this year, indicating a favorable environment for investments in these markets [1] Group 1: Carry Trade Dynamics - Carry trade involves borrowing in low-interest currencies (like the dollar) and investing in high-interest currencies (like those in Brazil and Mexico) to earn interest rate differentials [2] - The attractiveness of carry trades has increased due to weak U.S. employment data, which has fueled expectations for a Fed rate cut, thereby reducing the cost of borrowing in dollars [3] - Emerging market central banks are maintaining or raising interest rates to combat inflation, with Brazil's rate at 15% and Colombia's at 9.25%, creating significant interest rate differentials [3] Group 2: Market Conditions - Reduced market volatility has made carry trades less risky, with the gap in expected volatility between emerging market currencies and G10 currencies at a 12-year high [3] - Latin American currencies are particularly benefiting from carry trades, with a carry yield of 3.7%, compared to 1.1% in Europe and Africa, and -1.1% in Asia [4] - Investors are showing increased bullish sentiment towards the Mexican peso, with leveraged funds' bullish bets reaching a one-year high following the central bank's decision to slow down monetary easing [4] Group 3: Future Considerations - While the current environment favors carry trades, some investors are locking in profits due to concerns over potential economic impacts from U.S. tariff policies and upcoming inflation data releases [4]

Group 1 - Emerging market currencies continue their earlier upward trend, while stock market declines have narrowed due to comments from Federal Reserve official Neel Kashkari, which have put pressure on the dollar and boosted risk appetite [1] - The MSCI index, which measures emerging market currencies, rose by 0.2%, with the Colombian peso and South African rand leading the gains [1] - Similar stock market indices experienced slight declines, indicating a mixed performance in the equity markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed expectations for a rate cut in September, leading to declines in U.S. Treasury prices and emerging market currencies [1][2][9] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Powell emphasized the need for patience given the strong U.S. labor market and inflation above target levels [1] - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is now only 40%, while October's probability has risen to 80% [1] - Powell's hawkish comments led to a 7 basis point increase in the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reached a two-month high [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Investors reacted negatively to Powell's statements, with a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries intensifying as he noted the labor market is "in balance" [2][6] - Emerging market currencies fell, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index down 0.1%, marking its fourth consecutive decline [9][12] - The market anticipates that a delay in rate cuts could strengthen the dollar and weaken emerging market currencies [9][12] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent data showed that private sector employment in July exceeded economists' expectations, contributing to a perception of a strong economy [6] - Preliminary data indicated that the U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3% in the second quarter, surpassing market expectations [6] - The U.S. Treasury announced it would maintain its debt auction size but increase the frequency of repurchase operations to enhance liquidity for long-term bonds [7]