海外市场点评 伊朗"硝烟"再起：悬念与影响？ [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 研究助理：武朔 执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110007 执业证书：S0590125110064 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：linyan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 28 日 随着美以联手对伊朗发动空袭，本就错综复杂、矛盾交织的中东局势正式进入"白 热化"。实际上，此次军事打击并不让市场太过意外，此前双方在核计划、制裁解 除等核心诉求上的分歧已经根深蒂固，始终无法达成实质性共识、弥合立场鸿沟。 当前伊朗境内众多目标遭到袭击，其中包括总统府及情报与国家安全部，以色列 甚至扬言推翻伊朗政权；与此同时，伊朗已展开首轮导弹反击，誓言实施"毁灭 性"反击并进入全面戒备状态，局势已然剑拔弩张。 尽管美伊此前已在阿曼、瑞士等地完成三轮间接磋商，但核心分歧始终未破：美 国态度强硬 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 根据外媒获得的一份美国银行报告，花旗的对冲基金客户在上周五美国最高法院对美国总统特朗普广泛 的关税政策作出裁决前后，抛售了美元。 上周五，在最高法院依据国家紧急状态法驳回了关税举措后，美元在波动的交易中下跌。 花旗外汇量化投资者解决方案全球主管Kristjan Kasikov在报告中表示："花旗的对冲基金客户在关税裁 决前后是美元的净卖家。"他补充称，澳元是主要货币对中被买入最多的货币。 Kasikov补充道："新兴市场货币，特别是亚洲和拉美的货币，也看到了一些资金流入。" 花旗指出，鉴于最高法院的裁决结果在预期之中，其观察到的交易量与过去的交易活动大体一致。 该报告还补充说，即使在上周五美元出现波动之后，花旗的货币仓位指标仍指向适度的美元多头仓位， 这主要是由对冲基金和实钱客户的资金流驱动的。 在特朗普于法院裁决后不久签署行政命令后，10%的关税于周二生效。此后他曾威胁将关税提高至 15%，但尚未发布正式指令来提高税率。 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点 ...

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland have become a central concern at the World Economic Forum 2026 in Davos, potentially overshadowing the urgency for peace in Ukraine [1] - Finnish President Alexander Stubb expressed concerns that the Greenland crisis could dominate the agenda, emphasizing the need for the EU to utilize various tools to encourage the U.S. to retract threats regarding Greenland [1] - The U.S. announced a potential 10% tariff on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland starting February 1, escalating to 25% in June if a deal on Greenland is not reached [1] Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions have heightened market risk aversion, leading to record highs in gold and silver prices, with gold reaching $4690 per ounce and silver exceeding $94.7 per ounce [2] - Major European stock indices experienced declines, particularly in trade-sensitive sectors such as automotive and luxury goods [2] - JPMorgan downgraded its overall rating on emerging market currencies from "overweight" to "neutral," citing an "overbought" condition in short-term positions [2]

【资讯导读】 ·IMF上调2026年全球增长预期 AI投资成关键引擎 ·欧盟紧急峰会应对美关税威胁 ·美联储主席罕见出庭捍卫央行独立性 ·欧盟将于1月22日召开紧急峰会，商讨美国总统特朗普拟对反对美国获取格陵兰岛的欧洲国家加征关税 的应对策略，并评估对价值930亿欧元美国商品实施报复性关税的可行性。 ·美联储主席鲍威尔将于周三出席美国最高法院一场关于总统是否有权罢免美联储理事库克的口头辩 论。此举极为罕见，凸显该案件对美联储制度独立性的潜在威胁。 ·日本首相高市早苗宣布1月23日正式解散众议院，选举将于1月27日公告、2月8日投计票。她同时表示 将加速推进《安保三文件》修订进程，强化国家安全战略。 ·巴西财政部长哈达德表示，卢拉政府正推动经济开放以应对国际局势紧张，并向特朗普提出在产业 链、科技、生物燃料及稀土等领域开展互利合作，强调任何协议必须尊重巴西主权，拒绝长期充当原材 料出口国。 ·印度央行建议将金砖国家间数字货币互联用于跨境支付，并已要求政府将该提案纳入2026年金砖国家 峰会正式议程，旨在提升新兴经济体金融自主性。 ·摩根大通将新兴市场货币整体评级由"增持"下调至"中性"，理由是经历一年强劲上涨后 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that growth stocks in the U.S. still have room for performance, with an expected return of approximately 17% for the S&P 500 growth stocks and up to 21% for the S&P 600 small-cap value stocks [1] - The U.S. monetary policy has room for easing, with the Federal Reserve potentially lowering the policy rate to below 2.5% by 2026, while the European Central Bank is expected to maintain its policy rate at 2% at least until 2027 [1] - Inflation trends indicate that the overall consumer price index in the U.S. may approach zero growth by 2026, with core personal consumption expenditure inflation continuing to decline, although medium to long-term inflation risk premiums may still rise [1] Group 2 - In the commodities market, there is an optimistic outlook for aluminum prices, with a target range of $3,500 to $4,000 per ton; the natural gas market is facing supply pressures, with an estimated price of €22 per megawatt-hour for European TTF natural gas by 2027 [1] - In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar is expected to remain relatively strong in the first half of 2026, with the euro to dollar exchange rate potentially falling to 1.1; emerging market currencies may perform well in a globally moderate risk scenario [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hungarian Forint has seen a significant increase in trading volume, more than doubling since January 2017, driven by U.S. President Trump's policies and the overall strong performance of emerging market currencies in 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Volume and Currency Performance - The daily trading volume of the Hungarian Forint has increased significantly, with a 20% appreciation against the U.S. dollar this year, potentially marking its best annual performance in 25 years [2]. - The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index reached a historical high in July, with an overall increase of over 6% this year, indicating a strong performance for emerging market currencies [2][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The strengthening of emerging market currencies is attributed to increased volatility and a weakening U.S. dollar, prompting investors to reassess their exposure to dollar-denominated assets [5]. - Investors are diversifying their asset allocations, betting on the appreciation of currencies from developing countries like South Africa and Hungary [5]. Group 3: Risks and Economic Implications - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned about risks in the currency market, noting that a significant portion of forex trading is dominated by a few large banks, which could lead to market shocks if they reduce trading activities [8]. - The appreciation of local currencies can impact a country's export competitiveness while enhancing its ability to borrow and service debt [5]. Group 4: Future Trends and Predictions - Analysts expect the positive trend for emerging market currencies to continue into 2026, with increased demand for hedging and rising volatility [11]. - The Mexican Peso and Brazilian Real are also among the best-performing emerging market currencies this year, supported by robust central bank policies and high-interest rates [12].

【12月5日法国预测2026年美元回归，多币种汇率将有变动】12月5日，法国方面表示，因美国中期增长 前景未受影响，2026年美元将回归。策略师报告称，预计2025年四季度美国增长放缓，未来几周及2026 年初令美元承压，但美国中期增长前景未恶化。 该行预测，2026年一季度，欧元兑美元汇率将达1.20， 年底将跌至1.14。受美国关税政策影响，加元明年或成G10货币中表现最差币种。 2026年全年，在美元 走强背景下，许多新兴市场货币即期汇率表现将恶化。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Core Viewpoint - Société Générale indicates that the medium-term economic growth outlook for the U.S. remains unaffected, predicting a return of the dollar by 2026 [1] Group 1: Economic Forecasts - The bank expects a slowdown in U.S. economic growth in Q4 2025, which may pressure the dollar in the coming weeks and early 2026 [1] - By Q1 2026, the EUR/USD exchange rate is projected to reach 1.20, but is expected to decline to 1.14 by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2: Currency Performance - The Canadian dollar is anticipated to be the worst-performing currency among G10 currencies next year due to U.S. tariff policies [1] - In 2026, many emerging market currencies are expected to experience a deterioration in spot exchange rate performance amid a strengthening dollar [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The FOMC meeting cut the federal funds rate target range by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% as expected and ended the balance - sheet reduction plan in December, marking the end of the quantitative tightening phase. The policy has entered a new transition stage of "stop easing → observe and evaluate", with the future interest - rate path becoming more uncertain [2][3]. - After the resolution, the market re - priced interest rates, exchange rates, and risk assets due to Powell's hawkish remarks. The market focused on the uncertainty of future interest - rate cuts behind the end of balance - sheet reduction. If macro data does not deteriorate significantly before December, the market's trading logic for interest - rate cuts will be more cautious [4]. 3. Section Summaries FOMC Meeting Results - The FOMC meeting cut the federal funds rate by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00% and will end the balance - sheet reduction plan in December, with internal differences on interest - rate decisions, indicating increased uncertainty about the future interest - rate path [2][3]. - Powell emphasized that whether to cut interest rates in December depends on data, and the policy orientation has shifted to stronger data dependence. There are upward short - term inflation disturbances from tariffs, but they are expected to be temporary [3]. - The Fed has not determined the details of the balance - sheet duration structure adjustment but will gradually tilt towards short - duration allocation [3]. Market Reaction - After the Fed's decision, the market initially had a mild reaction, but then quickly re - priced due to Powell's hawkish remarks. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose by over 7bp to 4.06%, the 2 - year yield rose by over 10bp, U.S. stocks fell, gold declined, emerging - market currencies were under pressure, and Bitcoin significantly corrected [4]. - The market focused on the uncertainty of future interest - rate cuts, and if macro data does not deteriorate significantly before December, the trading logic for interest - rate cuts will be more cautious, and interest - rate fluctuations and cross - asset misalignment will remain highly elastic [4]. Economic Data Forecast (SEP Outlook) - Forecasts for real GDP, unemployment rate, PCE, core PCE, and interest rates from 2025 - 2028 are provided, and compared with June's predictions, showing changes in economic data expectations [30].

Core Viewpoint - HSBC maintains a "risk-on" stance for the last four months of 2025, recommending an overweight position in high-yield bonds and equities, particularly favoring U.S. stocks [1] Economic Recovery - The U.S. economy shows clear signs of accelerated recovery, with Q2 GDP revised to an annualized growth rate of 3.3%, supported mainly by consumer spending [2] - High-frequency macro and micro data continue to improve, contrasting with market expectations, which supports HSBC's risk-on stance [2] - However, inflation pressures are a concern, with core PCE inflation rising to 2.9% in July, the highest since February [2] Hawkish Risks - Despite potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, market expectations for future policy are considered overly dovish, with projections indicating about 5.5 rate cuts by December 2026 [3] - If hawkish risks materialize, it may not negatively impact risk assets, as strong economic data could be interpreted positively by the market [3] Positive Outlook on Risk Assets - HSBC remains positive on high-yield bonds and equities, particularly U.S. stocks, citing factors such as the widespread application of AI and signs of economic recovery supporting sensitive sectors [4] - The S&P 500 index is expected to see further gains, while small-cap stocks (Russell 2000) are currently viewed as less attractive [4] Corporate Earnings and AI Impact - Q2 earnings for the S&P 500 exceeded expectations, with an 81% beat rate and a year-over-year growth rate of 11.9%, marking three consecutive quarters of double-digit growth [5] - AI has significantly impacted corporate performance, with 44 S&P 500 companies achieving a 1.5% reduction in operating costs and a 24% increase in efficiency through AI applications [5] Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - Current market sentiment shows a moderate sell signal, but the likelihood of a significant short-term pullback is low due to a lack of fundamental triggers [6] - Risk asset inflows are slowly recovering, which is expected to support risk assets [6]