Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The gap between strong expectations and weak reality in the domestic market has widened. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, with characteristics such as "slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption." Meanwhile, external tariff pressure has increased, and the domestic government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies [1]. - Attention should be paid to the duration of the US government shutdown. The shutdown has affected economic data releases, and there are differences among Fed officials on the magnitude of interest rate cuts [2]. - In the commodity market, focus on sectors such as gold and non - ferrous metals. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, while the non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations [3]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic economic pressure increased marginally in August, with weakening economic data and rising external tariff pressure. The government has introduced pro - growth policies, such as the central bank's call for strengthened monetary policy regulation and the planned use of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments [1]. - On October 9, the A - share market had a good start, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3,900 - point mark for the first time in a decade. The non - ferrous metal sector rose, and the semiconductor industry chain was active. The Hong Kong stock market fluctuated downward, and the pharmaceutical and biological sectors adjusted. Treasury bonds rebounded, and commodities such as gold and copper rose [1]. - The US government shutdown entered its second week on October 8, affecting economic data releases. There are differences among Fed officials on the magnitude of interest rate cuts. US economic data showed mixed performance, with the manufacturing and service PMIs slightly declining in September, while retail sales and new home sales performed well [2]. Commodity Market - The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation. The non - ferrous sector is still facing long - term supply constraints and is recently boosted by global easing expectations [3]. - OPEC + announced that eight oil - producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has come into effect [3]. - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations in the short term, but still need signals from the fundamentals [3]. - Due to the US government shutdown and continuous central bank purchases, gold is expected to continue to strengthen, and attention should be paid to the game at key points [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4]. Key News - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly announced export controls on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items, which will take effect on November 8, 2025 [5]. - On October 9, the People's Bank of China conducted 1.1 trillion yuan in fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tendered, multiple - price - winning买断式 reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months [5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.32%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.73%. More than 3,100 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rose, and the trading volume exceeded 2.67 trillion yuan [5]. - Most Fed officials said that continued easing this year may be appropriate, and they emphasized the upside risks to inflation. Employment faces relatively high downside risks [5]. - The US dollar against the Japanese yen rose to 153, up 0.2% on the day, for the first time since February [2][5]. - The first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza officially came into effect at noon on October 9 [3][5].

Core Viewpoint - The economic policy stance of Japan's new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has sparked market expectations for a "new Abenomics," leading to the yen's exchange rate falling below the 153 mark, reigniting disputes over currency policy between the US and Japan [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Movements - The USD/JPY exchange rate rose to 153, marking a 0.2% increase, the first time since February that it has reached this level, which is considered politically and psychologically sensitive [1]. - The yen's depreciation has been linked to concerns over rising import costs, which could exacerbate household living cost pressures [1][4]. - The yen had previously appreciated about 6% to 147.44 before Takaichi's election, but has since weakened to around 152, narrowing its year-to-date gain to 2.77% [4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Political Implications - The current yen depreciation has revived discussions reminiscent of former President Trump's accusations of Japan "manipulating" its currency for unfair trade advantages [3][5]. - Analysts suggest that Takaichi may adopt a cautious approach to economic policy to avoid straining relations with the US, despite the volatility in the market [3][5]. - Concerns about import inflation are expected to prevent Takaichi from implementing policies that would further weaken the yen, indicating a need for a more realistic policy stance [4][7]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Policy Challenges - Japan's inflation rate has exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years, with an overall inflation rate of 2.7% reported in August [7]. - Experts believe that interest rate hikes will be necessary to curb inflation, with market pressures likely forcing Takaichi to accept potential rate increases by the Bank of Japan in the near future [7]. - The loss of purchasing power among the public is identified as a primary reason for the ruling party's unpopularity, highlighting the political stakes involved in managing inflation and currency value [7].