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【公募基金】国内主题轮动加剧,基金组合如何应对?—— 基金配置策略报告(2025年7月期)
华宝财富魔方· 2025-07-09 09:21
Market Overview - The equity market showed an overall upward trend in June 2025, with the performance of various indices such as the Maned Active Equity Fund Index, Maned Stock Fund Total Index, and Maned Mixed Fund Total Index recording increases of 3.63%, 4.26%, and 3.59% respectively [2] - The bond market exhibited a clear structural trend, with the Maned Bond Fund Index achieving a positive return of 0.48%, while the Maned Medium to Long-term Pure Bond Fund Index and the Maned Short-term Pure Bond Fund Index rose by 0.28% and 0.18% respectively [2] - The Convertible Bond Fund Index recorded a gain of 3.51%, driven by the upward trend in equity markets and rising valuations of convertible bonds [2] Equity Allocation Strategy - With the easing of Middle Eastern tensions, market focus is shifting towards domestic policies, US-China tariffs, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - High-performing sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, leading new consumption brands, and AI computing chains are expected to maintain strong momentum [3] - The strategy emphasizes the importance of fund managers who can track industry trends and suggests increasing the proportion of valuation-based sector rotation fund managers [3] - Key themes to watch include opportunities in AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as military and "anti-involution" themes [3] Fixed Income Allocation Strategy - Despite a favorable overall environment, the downward trend in bond yields remains unchanged, with government bond rates at relatively low levels [4] - The market is expected to continue experiencing low-level fluctuations due to short-term sentiment changes and market dynamics [4] - A balanced allocation between interest rate bonds and credit bonds is recommended, with a slightly longer duration than the market average [4] Fixed Income Plus Fund Strategy - The strategy has been refined into low, medium, and high volatility fixed income plus categories, each with optimized indices [5] - The bond segment focuses on high-grade credit bonds while avoiding lower-rated credits, combining them with interest rate bond trading strategies [5] - The equity segment maintains a dividend and thematic rotation approach, with low volatility indices incorporating more active bond market opportunities [5] - Medium volatility indices introduce a higher proportion of dividend strategy-based assets, while high volatility indices focus on stable dividend funds with growth-oriented allocations [5]
国际地缘冲突再起,港股避险情绪升温
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-06-15 11:40
Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, have led to increased risk aversion in the market, resulting in a rise in oil prices and a boost in safe-haven assets like gold [2][4] - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.42%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.89% during the week from June 9 to June 13 [2][4] - Among the sectors, healthcare, materials, and energy industries performed well, with respective index increases of 7.52%, 5.91%, and 5.80%, while consumer discretionary and information technology sectors saw declines [7][12] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange increased to HKD 254.2 billion, up by HKD 50.2 billion from the previous week, indicating improved liquidity [17] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 15.5 billion, reflecting a positive sentiment towards certain stocks, including Meituan and BYD [17] - As of June 13, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the Hang Seng Index was 10.6, placing it in the 72nd percentile since 2019, while the Hang Seng Tech Index had a PE ratio of 20.02, in the 8th percentile [19][23] Group 3 - The report suggests that the current valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is at a historical average level, with a focus on high-dividend sectors such as energy, finance, and precious metals, which are expected to attract investor interest amid geopolitical uncertainties [44] - The report also notes the potential benefits for export-oriented sectors due to improvements in US-China tariff policies, as well as opportunities in innovative pharmaceutical sectors and new consumer leaders with strong earnings growth [44][41]