2026 年 02 月 27 日 开源晨会 0227 ——晨会纪要 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | 2.842 | | 电子 | 1.981 | | 国防军工 | 1.515 | | 机械设备 | 1.410 | | 钢铁 | 1.326 | 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 房地产 | -2.247 | | 传媒 | -1.453 | | 非银金融 | -1.425 | | 商贸零售 | -1.221 | | 食品饮料 | -1.198 | 数据来源：聚源 晨 会 纪 要 晨会纪要 期-20260226 【金融工程】分钟主动资金流中的选股信息——开源量化评论（122）-20260225 行业公司 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 【通信】英伟达业绩超预期，坚定看好全球 AI 算力链——行业点评报告-20260226 【汽车】伯特利拟收购豫 ...

【导读】春节前超59亿元抄底恒生科技指数，指数大幅波动 春节后A股开盘大涨，迎来涨停潮。而在春节前最后一个交易日，A股一度下跌，市场净流出资金达195亿元，但恒生科技指数春节前"越跌越买"，近五个 交易日净流入超59亿元。春节假期期间，恒生科技指数先跌后涨，上一交易日大涨3.34%，今天开盘又遭重挫，抄底资金坐上"过山车"。 近5日净流入恒生科技指数超59亿元 数据显示，截至2月13日，全市场1339只股票ETF（含跨境ETF）总规模达4.12万亿元。在股市下跌行情中，股票ETF市场净流出资金达194.75亿元。 从大类型来看，2月13日债券ETF与港股市场ETF净流入居前，分别达90.87亿元与31.16亿元。 具体到指数维度，2月13日中证短融指数单日净流入居前，达47.48亿元。从5日角度观测，近期资金流入恒生科技指数超59亿元，流入SGE黄金9999指数 超26亿元。 值得注意的是，春节假期期间，恒生科技指数先跌后涨，涨幅达0.47%，上一交易日大涨3.34%。前期"越跌越买"的抄底资金，获得了久违的大涨。不 过，2月24日港股开盘，恒生科技指数再迎重挫，截至午盘，该指数跌幅达2.36%。 | 序号 ...

Investment Rating - The communication sector is rated as "Overweight" [8] Core Insights - The communication sector saw a decline of 2.12% in the index, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.11% [11] - In Q4 2025, the proportion of communication stocks in the top ten holdings of public funds increased to 8.75%, up by 0.91 percentage points from the previous quarter [12] - The overweight ratio for the communication sector reached 5.25%, an increase of 1.89 percentage points compared to Q3 2025 [12] - Key areas of investment interest include AI computing power chains (such as optical modules, liquid cooling, copper connections, and switches) and commercial aerospace (rockets, satellites, and terminals) [11][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The communication index decreased by 2.12%, while the broader market indices showed positive growth [11] - Public funds increased their holdings in liquid cooling, optical chips, data centers, and commercial aerospace, while reducing exposure to fiber optic cables and communication equipment [12] Valuation Metrics - As of January 23, 2026, the TTM P/E ratio for the communication sector was 50.01x, which is at the 83.1% historical percentile since early 2011 [12] Key Companies and Dynamics - The report highlights a primary investment theme in the communication industry focusing on AI computing power chains, with recommended stocks including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and others [3] - The top five stocks by market value increase in Q4 2025 were Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, Yingwei Ke, and Yuanjie Technology, with respective increases of 51.3%, 17.8%, 21.0%, 33.6%, and 49.6% [21] - The report emphasizes the importance of commercial aerospace as a secondary investment theme [3] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several stocks with a "Buy" rating, including: - Aofei Data (300738 CH) with a target price of 31.17 [43] - Wol Network (002130 CH) with a target price of 43.21 [43] - Ruijie Network (301165 CH) with a target price of 102.51 [43] - China Mobile (600941 CH) with a target price of 126.20 [43] - Xinyi Sheng (300502 CH) with a target price of 476.71 [43] - Tianfu Communication (300394 CH) with a target price of 211.92 [43] - Wan Guo Data (9698 HK) with a target price of 45.83 [43] - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH) with a target price of 626.68 [43] - Hengtong Optic-Electric (600487 CH) with a target price of 25.73 [43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry and communication equipment manufacturing sector [6]. Core Insights - The communication index increased by 1.66% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.40% [9]. - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang introduced the upgraded Rubin platform at CES 2026, highlighting significant enhancements in computing, networking, and system capabilities, which are expected to drive new demand in the North American AI computing chain [9][10]. - The report suggests focusing on the supply chain related to optical modules, copper connections, and liquid cooling as potential investment opportunities [9]. Summary by Sections Computing Enhancements - Rubin GPU's inference performance has improved by 5 times, and training performance by 3.5 times. The Vera CPU's data analysis and compression performance are both double that of the previous generation Grace CPU [2][10]. - The Vera Rubin NVL72 cabinet features full liquid cooling and a modular design, with inference and training capabilities of 3.6 EFLOPS and 2.5 EFLOPS, respectively, marking a 5-fold and 3.5-fold increase compared to the previous model [2][10]. Networking Improvements - NVLink 6 has doubled the interconnect bandwidth between GPUs to 3.6 TB/s, and the Spectrum-6 Ethernet switch supports CPO technology with a switching capacity of 102.4 Tb/s, also doubling the previous generation's capacity [2][10]. - The NVSwitch ASIC allows for a total bandwidth of 260 TB/s within the cabinet, significantly enhancing data transfer efficiency [18]. System-Level Developments - The Vera Rubin NVL72 cabinet integrates 72 Rubin GPUs and 36 Vera CPUs, achieving an AI computing performance of 100 PFLOPS. The overall system performance improvements align with the enhancements seen in individual components [25][32]. - The cabinet's design allows for a significant reduction in setup time from 100 minutes to just 6 minutes, thanks to its modular and liquid-cooled architecture [30][32]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Walden Materials (002130 CH) with a target price of 43.21 and a "Buy" rating [6]. - Aofei Data (300738 CH) with a target price of 31.17 and a "Buy" rating [6]. - China Mobile (600941 CH) with a target price of 126.20 and a "Buy" rating [6]. - New Yisheng (300502 CH) with a target price of 476.71 and a "Buy" rating [6]. - Ruijie Networks (301165 CH) with a target price of 102.51 and a "Buy" rating [6]. - Other recommended companies include Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, and Hengtong Optic-Electric [3][6].

Group 1 - A-shares opened lower on January 8, with the CSI A500 index showing mixed performance among its constituent stocks, while the A500 ETF (512050) fell by 0.24% with a trading volume exceeding 1.2 billion yuan [1] - The margin trading balance reached a historical high of 2.58 trillion yuan as of January 6, marking a year-on-year increase of 40.93%, indicating active market trading at the beginning of the year [1] - Key sectors attracting financing inflows include semiconductors and industrial metals, reflecting investor interest in these areas [1] Group 2 - Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that the Shanghai Composite Index's recent upward trend indicates a potential for continued spring market momentum, with new capital expected to flow into A-shares [2] - The A500 ETF (512050) offers investors a low-cost entry into core A-share assets, with a comprehensive strategy covering all 35 sub-industries and a focus on sectors like AI, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy [2] - The ETF boasts advantages such as a low fee rate of 0.2%, strong liquidity with an average daily trading volume exceeding 5 billion yuan, and a large scale of over 40 billion yuan [2]

Group 1 - The market showed a slight increase with the total trading volume reaching 2.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 476 billion yuan compared to the previous day [6][2] - The number of stocks that rose, remained flat, and fell in the market was 3190, 107, and 2173 respectively [6][2] - The top three sectors with net capital inflow were banking (+28.14 billion yuan), coal (+12.43 billion yuan), and telecommunications (+9.03 billion yuan) [6][2] Group 2 - Huaxi Securities suggests that the spring market rally has started early, maintaining a bullish outlook [2][6] - The report emphasizes focusing on emerging growth sectors and opportunities related to the "anti-involution" trend, including AI computing power chains, AI applications, robotics, domestic substitution, commercial aerospace, and energy storage [2][6] - The report also highlights sectors benefiting from price increases, such as chemicals, new energy, and non-ferrous metals [2][6] Group 3 - Huabao Fund has launched three major broad-based ETFs tracking the China A50, A100, and A500 indices, providing investors with diverse options for investing in China [2][6] - The A50 ETF focuses on the top 50 core leading companies, while the A100 ETF encompasses the top 100 industry leaders [2][6]

Market Overview - A-shares opened high and experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4085.77 points, up 0.05% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.06% to 14030.56 points, while the CSI 300 Index fell 0.29% to 4776.67 points [1] - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 2.85 trillion yuan, marking the second consecutive day above 2.8 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector saw significant gains, driven by rising prices of storage chips, with stocks like Tongcheng New Materials and Hengkun New Materials hitting the daily limit [1][2] - The controlled nuclear fusion concept gained traction, with stocks such as Wangzi New Materials and China Nuclear Engineering hitting the daily limit, following breakthroughs in experimental methods [3] - The non-ferrous nickel sector also experienced a rally, with the main nickel contract reaching a high of $18,735 per ton, the highest since June 2024 [4] Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs recommends overweight positions in A-shares and H-shares, projecting a 20% increase in the MSCI China Index and a 12% rise in the CSI 300 Index for 2026, driven by double-digit earnings growth and moderate valuations [5] - Huaxi Securities anticipates an early start to the spring market rally, maintaining a bullish outlook and suggesting focus on emerging growth sectors and anti-involution opportunities [6] - Shenwan Hongyuan emphasizes the ongoing structural themes in the spring market, highlighting opportunities in AI computing chains and cyclical stocks [8] Technical Analysis - Dongfang Securities notes that the Shanghai Composite Index is approaching the 4100-point mark, predicting a slowdown in upward momentum and potential volatility [9]

Market Overview - A-shares opened the year strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 4100 points and the ChiNext Index breaking its previous high from October 30, 2025, reaching a new high since December 2021 [1] - The half-day trading volume was 1.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 53.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Short-term drivers include stabilized expectations for the RMB exchange rate and the anticipation of a spring market rally, while the long-term trend suggests a "slow bull" market may continue [1] Sector Performance - The semiconductor industry chain showed strong performance, with semiconductor equipment and storage chips leading the gains, and companies like Zhongwei and Northern Huachuang reaching historical highs [2] - The storage chip concept surged, with companies like Yingxin Development and Purun shares experiencing consecutive gains, driven by positive news from NVIDIA and significant increases in U.S. storage stocks [3] - The industrial metals sector, particularly nickel, saw a rise, with LME nickel prices reaching a high of $18,735 per ton, the highest since June 2024 [4] - The controllable nuclear fusion concept gained traction, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, supported by breakthroughs in experimental methods [5] Institutional Insights - Huaxi Securities noted that the spring market rally has started early, maintaining a bullish outlook and suggesting a focus on emerging growth and anti-involution cyclical opportunities [6] - Shenwan Hongyuan emphasized that the spring market structure remains unchanged, with high elasticity in thematic opportunities, particularly in AI computing and cyclical sectors [7] - Dongfang Securities projected that the upward momentum of the Shanghai Composite Index may slow as it approaches the 4100-point mark, advising caution regarding potential adjustments in individual stocks [8]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened high on January 7, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% to 4095.54 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.35% to 14071.35 points, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.41% to 3332.74 points, marking a four-year high [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 53.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The photolithography concept stocks surged, with Guofeng New Materials hitting the limit up for two consecutive days, and several other stocks like Nanda Optoelectronics and Tongcheng New Materials also reaching the limit up [1] - The controllable nuclear fusion concept showed strong performance, with stocks like Wangzi New Materials and China First Heavy Industries hitting the limit up [1] - The brain-computer interface concept continued its strong trend, with stocks such as Innovation Medical and Nanjing Panda achieving three consecutive limit ups [1] - Semiconductor equipment stocks were actively traded, with stocks like Chip Source Microelectronics and Hengkun New Materials hitting the limit up by 20% [1] - The electric grid equipment sector showed strength, with Sanbian Technology and China West Electric reaching the limit up [1] - In contrast, oil and gas stocks performed poorly, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation experiencing a decline [1] Hot Sectors - The storage chip concept was strong, with stocks like Yingxin Development achieving two consecutive limit ups, and others like Puran Shares and Jiangbolong also rising [2] - The nickel concept stocks saw a rally, with stocks like Greeenmei hitting the limit up, supported by a significant increase in nickel prices [3] - The controllable nuclear fusion concept stocks rose, with breakthroughs in experimental methods reported, indicating long-term growth potential for the industry [4] Institutional Insights - Huaxi Securities noted that the spring market rally has started early, maintaining a bullish outlook, and suggested focusing on emerging growth sectors and anti-involution opportunities [5] - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities emphasized that the spring market structure remains unchanged, with high elasticity in thematic opportunities, particularly in AI and cyclical sectors [5] - Dongfang Securities indicated that the Shanghai Composite Index is approaching the 4100-point mark, predicting a slowdown in upward momentum and potential volatility [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the spring market rally has started early, and the bull market pattern remains intact, with 2026 expected to be a significant year due to multiple positive factors [1] - Macro policy cycles indicate that 2026 will be the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with various departments intensifying the introduction of supporting industrial policies and investment plans, creating a favorable liquidity environment for the market [1] - Institutional funds, particularly from stock ETFs, have shown early entry into the market, with additional inflows expected from insurance funds and foreign capital due to currency appreciation, which may strengthen the spring market trend [1] Group 2 - The spring market is expected to have depth, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing continuous upward movement, indicating a robust spring theme with high elasticity in thematic opportunities [2] - Key themes to focus on include industrial themes (commercial aerospace, robotics, nuclear fusion), funding themes (high dividend recovery and core asset recovery), and policy themes (service consumption, Hainan) [2] - The investment focus is on AI computing power chains and cyclical opportunities, which are expected to have high institutional attention, although their weight in the spring market may be relatively low [2] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, after a significant rebound, the Shanghai Composite Index is approaching the 4100-point mark, and the upward momentum is expected to slow down, with potential for significant fluctuations [3] - Future industry focus remains critical, but caution is advised regarding the risk of significant adjustments following substantial speculation in individual stocks, with attention to high-low switches within sectors [3]