证 券 研 究 报 告 安井食品（603345）2025 年中报点评 强推（维持） 当前承压，布局修复 目标价：100 元 事项： 评论： ❖ 风险提示：新品拓展不及预期、行业竞争加剧、食品安全问题等。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 15,127 | 15,778 | 17,055 | 18,352 | | 同比增速(%) | 7.7% | 4.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,485 | 1,411 | 1,541 | 1,720 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.5% | -5.0% | 9.2% | 11.6% | | 每股盈利(元) | 4.46 | 4.23 | 4.62 | 5.16 | | 市盈率(倍) | 17 | 18 | 17 | 15 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected revenue growth of 7.04% to 8.97% from 2025 to 2027, and corresponding EPS growth of 9.25% to 10.28% during the same period [8][10]. Core Insights - The company is shifting its strategic focus from "channel-driven" to "new product-driven," emphasizing C-end product innovation as the core of growth. This includes optimizing incentive mechanisms and establishing a differentiated assessment system [5]. - The company is enhancing its B-end customized offerings by deepening collaborations with major clients like Sam's Club and Yum China, which will help expand its customer base [6]. - The digital upgrade of the distribution system is being implemented, supporting existing distributors to extend into new retail and e-commerce channels [6]. - The company plans to launch several new high-end products targeting both B-end and C-end markets, with a focus on quality and price differentiation [7]. Financial Projections - The projected revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 161.92 billion, 175.60 billion, and 191.35 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.04%, 8.45%, and 8.97% [10][11]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is 16.22 billion, 17.69 billion, and 19.51 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 9.25%, 9.05%, and 10.28% [8][10]. - The company's PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 15, 14, and 13 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Anjijia Food (603345) with a target price of 100 CNY [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is shifting its strategy from a channel-driven approach to a product-driven approach, focusing on capturing new consumer trends and launching new products starting from Q2 2025 [7][8]. - The company has a robust pipeline of new products, including various types of sausages, dumplings, and hot pot ingredients, which are expected to drive growth [7][8]. - The management has acknowledged past challenges due to an overemphasis on B-end products and is now focusing on creating explosive products for the C-end market [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 15,127 million CNY in 2024 to 19,282 million CNY by 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 8.5% [3][19]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1,485 million CNY in 2024 to 1,875 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 12.0% in 2027 [3][19]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 5.06 CNY in 2024 to 6.39 CNY in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 16 to 13 over the same period [3][19]. Market Position and Strategy - The company aims to enhance its distribution channels by focusing on large distributors and embracing customized solutions for supermarkets and community e-commerce [7][8]. - Anjijia Food is positioned as a leader in the frozen food sector, with a strong management capability and operational efficiency, which are expected to support its growth potential and profit recovery [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Anjuke Food (603345) with a target price of 100 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - The company is shifting its strategy from a channel-driven approach to a focus on new product development, aiming to capture new consumer trends and enhance product offerings [7]. - New products are expected to be launched starting from Q2 2025, with a strong pipeline of innovations across various categories [7]. - The company is emphasizing the potential of all-channel development and aims to strengthen its distribution network, particularly in supermarkets and community e-commerce [7]. - The management has acknowledged past challenges in product innovation and is now committed to a more balanced approach between B-end and C-end product strategies [7]. - The report anticipates gradual improvement in the company's fundamentals throughout the year, supported by new product launches and a low base effect [7]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 15,127 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7% [3]. - Expected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is 1,485 million CNY, reflecting a modest growth of 0.5% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 5.06 CNY for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 [3]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 237.04 billion CNY, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 18.7% [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable operations and clear strategic direction, with a focus on optimizing its business strategies for continued profitability improvement [7][8] - The company reported a total revenue of 151.27 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.70%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.85 billion yuan, which is a slight increase of 0.46% [7] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.015 yuan per share, totaling 14.85 billion yuan [7] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024: 151.27 billion yuan (YoY +7.70%) - 2025E: 159.14 billion yuan (YoY +5.20%) - 2026E: 170.91 billion yuan (YoY +7.40%) - 2027E: 182.17 billion yuan (YoY +6.59%) [4][8] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2024: 14.85 billion yuan (YoY +0.46%) - 2025E: 15.94 billion yuan (YoY +7.38%) - 2026E: 17.59 billion yuan (YoY +8.77%) - 2027E: 19.73 billion yuan (YoY +7.36%) [4][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 5.06 yuan - 2025E: 5.44 yuan - 2026E: 6.00 yuan - 2027E: 6.73 yuan [4][8] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratios**: - 2024: 15.30 - 2025E: 14.25 - 2026E: 12.91 - 2027E: 11.51 [4][8] Operational Insights - The company has 39 products generating over 1 billion yuan in revenue, contributing approximately 70% of total revenue, with four products exceeding 5 billion yuan [7] - The company’s gross margin remained stable at 23.30% for 2024, while the net margin slightly decreased to 10.01% [7] - The company is focusing on product strategy improvements, with a shift towards enhancing product quality and price competitiveness [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable operations and clear strategic direction, with a focus on optimizing its business strategies for continued profitability improvement [7][8] - The company reported a total revenue of 151.27 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.70%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.85 billion yuan, which is a slight increase of 0.46% [7] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.015 yuan per share, totaling 14.85 billion yuan [7] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 159.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.20% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 15.94 billion yuan, representing a growth of 7.38% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 5.44 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.25 [4] Product Performance - In 2024, the company had 39 products with revenue exceeding 100 million yuan, contributing approximately 70% of total revenue [7] - The revenue from prepared foods reached 78.39 billion yuan, growing by 11.41%, with a standout product, the vacuum-sealed packaging, expected to grow over 18% [7] - The revenue from dish products was 43.49 billion yuan, increasing by 10.76%, with the small crispy meat product expected to grow by 50% [7] Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was stable at 23.30%, while the net margin slightly decreased to 10.01% [7] - The company experienced an increase in management expenses due to stock incentive costs, which rose by 80 million yuan [7] - The expense ratio for 2024 was 10.03%, with a notable increase in management fees [7] Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on product strategy improvements, with a B-end strategy emphasizing cost-effectiveness and a C-end strategy aimed at product upgrades [7] - The company plans to launch new products and enhance promotional efforts to drive sales growth [7] - The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 15.94 billion yuan, 17.59 billion yuan, and 19.73 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 5.44 yuan, 6.00 yuan, and 6.73 yuan [7][8]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.13 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.485 billion, up 0.46% year-on-year. However, in Q1 2025, revenue declined to 3.6 billion, down 4.13%, and net profit fell to 395 million, down 10.01% [1][2]. Revenue Performance - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows mixed performance across product categories: - Noodle products: -3.14% - Frozen prepared foods: +11.41% - Dish products: +10.76% - Agricultural products: -11.74% - Snack foods: -80.44% - Other businesses: -0.96% [2] - In Q1 2025, revenue changes were as follows: - Frozen noodle products: +3.17% - Prepared dishes: -2.4% - Dish products: -12.48% - Agricultural products: -4.31% - Other businesses: -41.42% [2] Channel Performance - For 2024, revenue by channel showed: - Distribution: +8.91% - Supermarkets: -2.35% - Direct sales: -4.54% - E-commerce: -2.29% - New retail: +32.97% [2] - In Q1 2025, channel performance was: - Distribution: -3.94% - Supermarkets: -6.46% - Direct sales: -6.5% - E-commerce: -14.45% - New retail: +22.26% [2] Profitability Analysis - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 0.71 percentage points to 9.82%, with a gross margin increase of 0.09 percentage points to 23.3%. The operating expense ratio rose by 0.67 percentage points to 10.03% [3]. - In Q1 2025, the net profit margin fell by 0.72 percentage points to 10.96%, with a gross margin decline of 3.23 percentage points to 23.32%. The operating expense ratio decreased by 0.77 percentage points to 9.9% [3]. Future Outlook - The company is enhancing its supply chain management to mitigate cost fluctuations and expects improvements in revenue from new products and acquisitions. - Projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 1.53 billion and 1.71 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 5.21 and 5.84, and PE ratios of 14 and 13 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 103.86 RMB [7][8] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong earnings resilience in 2024, with revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 15.13 billion, 1.48 billion, and 1.36 billion RMB respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 7.7%, 0.5%, and a slight decline of 0.5% [1][4] - The company is focusing on internal improvements during the off-season to prepare for the peak season, as competition in the frozen food industry has eased compared to the second half of 2024 [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from frozen noodles, prepared foods, and dishes was 2.46 billion, 7.84 billion, and 4.35 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year change of -3.1%, +11.4%, and +10.8% respectively [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 23.3%, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 9.8% [3] Strategic Developments - The company is advancing its strategic products, such as the "lock-fresh" packaging, which generated over 1.5 billion RMB in revenue in 2024, marking an increase of over 18% year-on-year [2] - The company plans to enhance its relationships with major supermarkets like Yonghui and Walmart in 2025, aiming for customized offerings [2] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 5.47 RMB and 6.05 RMB, respectively, with an introduction of a 2027 EPS forecast of 6.88 RMB [4][6] - The company’s estimated revenue for 2025 is 16.16 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 6.83% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 103.86 RMB [7][8] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong earnings resilience in 2024, with revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 15.13 billion, 1.48 billion, and 1.36 billion RMB respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 7.7%, 0.5%, and -0.5% [1] - The company is focusing on internal improvements during the off-season to prepare for the peak season in the second half of the year [1] - The company has made strategic acquisitions, such as acquiring 70% of Dingwei Thai, to enhance channel synergies [2] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's gross margin increased by 0.1 percentage points to 23.3%, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 9.8% [3] - The company expects to maintain revenue forecasts but has adjusted profit forecasts upwards due to the contribution from Dingwei Thai and strong expense management capabilities [4] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth from 15.13 billion RMB in 2024 to 16.16 billion RMB in 2025, with a projected net profit of 1.60 billion RMB in 2025 [6] - The expected EPS for 2025 is 5.47 RMB, with a projected PE ratio of 19x [4][6] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on the sales of strategic products such as "lock-fresh" packaging, which achieved over 1.5 billion RMB in revenue in 2024, growing by over 18% year-on-year [2] - The company plans to embrace customization in supermarkets and strengthen partnerships with major retailers like Yonghui and Walmart [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 100 yuan [1][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.127 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.485 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue reached 4.050 billion yuan, a 7.3% increase year-on-year, while net profit for the same quarter was 438 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 22.8% [6][7]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.600 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 395 million yuan, down 10.01% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10.15 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 297 million yuan, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.1% for 2024 [6][7]. - The company is focusing on practical adjustments and actively building momentum, with expectations for revenue recovery driven by new products and channels despite external demand pressures [6][7]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 15.127 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 8.2% for 2025, reaching 16.368 billion yuan. The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 1.522 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.5% [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 5.06 yuan, with projections of 5.19 yuan for 2025, 5.71 yuan for 2026, and 6.39 yuan for 2027. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 15, 14, 13, and 12 respectively [7][8]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 23.3%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points. The net profit margin was recorded at 9.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. Product and Market Performance - The company’s revenue from various product categories showed mixed results in 2024, with the rice and flour segment declining by 3.1%, while frozen prepared foods and dishes grew by 11.4% and 10.7% respectively. The company’s hot pot ingredients experienced significant growth, particularly in vacuum-sealed packaging [6][7]. - The company’s sales channels also demonstrated varied performance, with distribution channels increasing by 8.9%, while supermarkets and e-commerce channels saw declines of 2.4% and 2.3% respectively. The new retail channel showed a remarkable growth of 33% [6][7]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth varied across regions, with Northeast China growing by 7.0%, North China by 5.4%, East China by 6.4%, South China by 9.1%, Central China by 7.4%, Northwest by 13.5%, and Southwest by 14.4% [6][7].