智通财经APP获悉，吉利汽车(00175)午后涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.03%，报19.38港元，成交额16.2亿港 元。 消息面上，9月29日晚，极氪9X正式上市，共推出Max、Ultra、Hyper、曜黑四个版型，官方零售价 46.59万至59.99万元起，超级置换权益后限时售价45.59万至58.99万元起。根据披露数据显示，新车上市 13分钟，大定突破1万辆。 大和此前研报指出，在吉利汽车公布上半年业绩后，更新对其估值模型。该行目前预测吉利汽车在2025 至2027年将实现300万至380万辆的销售量，较原预期的190万至230万辆有所上调，并看好吉利成功的新 能源车转型，预期2025至2027年更多的增长将来自海外扩张。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa has updated its valuation model for Geely Automobile (00175) following the release of its half-year results, projecting an increase in sales volume from 1.9 million to 2.3 million units to a new forecast of 3 million to 3.8 million units for 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 1 - The forecast for Geely's sales volume has been raised significantly, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance in the coming years [1] - The growth is expected to be driven by successful transformation into new energy vehicles and expansion into overseas markets [1] - Daiwa anticipates further profit improvement due to economies of scale and cost savings from internal synergies [1] Group 2 - The "buy" rating has been reaffirmed, with the target price increased from HKD 14 to HKD 24.5 [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2026 have been raised by 37% to 44%, while earnings per share estimates have been increased by 45% to 57% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential merger between Dongfeng Motor Group and Changan Automobile, highlighting the challenges and implications of such a move, particularly in terms of operational efficiency and market positioning. It concludes that Changan's recent elevation to a first-tier state-owned enterprise provides it with a significant opportunity for independent growth, especially in the context of its performance in the electric vehicle sector [3][5][43]. Sales Performance - In 2024, Changan and Dongfeng's sales were 2.684 million and 1.896 million vehicles respectively, with Changan leading by 41.6% [3]. - Changan's revenue in 2024 was 159.7 billion, while Dongfeng's was 106.2 billion, marking a 50.4% lead for Changan [3]. - Changan's net profit was 2.59 billion, whereas Dongfeng reported a net loss of 690 million [3]. New Energy Vehicle Business - In 2024, Changan sold 735,000 new energy vehicles, accounting for 27.4% of its total sales, while Dongfeng sold 395,000, representing 20.8% [4]. - Changan's balanced development across high, mid, and low-end electric vehicles positions it favorably compared to competitors like SAIC, which relies heavily on its Wuling brand [25]. Historical Sales Trends - Changan's sales peaked at 3.06 million in 2016 but faced a decline, dropping to 1.76 million in 2019 [7]. - Sales began to recover slowly, reaching 2.55 million in 2023, with a modest growth of 8.8% year-on-year [8]. - In the first five months of 2025, Changan's total sales were 1.12 million, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 1% [9]. Brand Performance - Changan's self-owned brand sales have consistently increased, reaching 93% of total sales in 2024, compared to 75% in 2020 [15][16]. - The decline in sales from joint venture brands has been offset by the growth of self-owned brands, with a total increase of 723,000 units from 2020 to 2024 [18]. Investment and Profitability - Changan's profitability has been significantly impacted by its joint ventures, particularly with Changan Ford, which saw a drastic decline in revenue and profitability starting in 2018 [29]. - In 2024, Changan received only 134 million in cash dividends from its joint ventures, a mere 11.4% of what it received in 2016 [30]. - The company has shifted its focus to self-owned brands and new energy vehicles, which has allowed it to avoid the pitfalls faced by its competitors reliant on joint ventures [43]. Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the ongoing price war in the electric vehicle market, which primarily affects traditional fuel vehicles and joint venture brands [45]. - The government has indicated a preference for market-driven solutions rather than direct intervention in price wars, suggesting a competitive landscape ahead for all players [46].