智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，在以旧换新政策的推动下，中国电动重卡市场实现高速增 长，渗透率持续提升。前三季度，我国新能源重卡累计销量达13.78万辆，同比增长184%，超过2024年 全年水平，渗透率进一步提升至24.21%。与此同时，尽管欧美地区现阶段重卡电动化水平相对较低， 但在碳排放考核趋严与补贴政策支持的驱动下，其增长势头也已初步显现。随着电动重卡市场迎来爆发 式增长，其将为锂电行业带来广阔的增量空间，动力电池及关键材料企业有望从中受益。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 基础设施建设不及预期；补贴政策不及预期。 中国：以旧换新政策驱动，新能源重卡市场驶入增长快车道 目前美国重卡市场的电动化程度仍处于较低水平，渗透率不足1%。但在清洁重型车辆补助计划、税收 抵免等政策的推动下，美国电动重卡市场已初显增长势头。2024年，美国电动重卡销量达1103辆，同比 增长34%，较2022年增长约4倍。 推荐标的 宁德时代(300750.SZ)、比亚迪(002594.SZ)、国轩高科(002074.SZ)、亿纬锂能(300014.SZ)、中创新航 (03931)、湖南裕能(301358.SZ)、紫金矿业(601 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance briefing of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Jinan Truck Co., Ltd. highlighted a positive outlook for the heavy truck market, driven by policy support and economic recovery, particularly in the new energy truck segment [2]. Group 1: Operational Performance - In the first half of 2025, the heavy truck market showed a "volatile recovery, strengthening each quarter" trend, with total sales steadily increasing. The heavy truck industry sales reached 539,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [2]. - In July, heavy truck sales reached 83,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 42%, marking four consecutive months of positive growth [2]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The heavy truck industry is expected to experience an upward trend in the second half of the year, with an estimated annual scale of around 1 million units, supported by the "old-for-new" vehicle policy and economic recovery [2]. Group 3: New Energy Trucks - The new energy heavy truck market in China saw rapid growth, with cumulative sales of 79,200 units in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 186%. The company's new energy truck sales grew faster than the industry average [2]. Group 4: Natural Gas Trucks - The domestic natural gas heavy truck market experienced a brief recovery followed by a decline. The "old-for-new" policy has been included in the subsidy scope, injecting vitality into the market [2]. Group 5: Export Performance - The company's export performance remained strong, with exports accounting for nearly 50% of total sales. Key export regions include Africa, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, covering over 100 countries [2]. Group 6: Dividend Policy - The company plans to maintain a stable dividend policy, considering factors such as share capital, performance, funding needs, and development plans, with the intention to increase cash dividend ratios when conditions allow [2]. Group 7: Accounts Receivable Management - The company's sales increased by 14.1% year-on-year, leading to a rise in accounts receivable. The company will implement a comprehensive management approach to control accounts receivable and ensure risk is manageable [2].

Group 1: Overall Performance - In the first half of 2025, the heavy truck market showed a "volatile recovery, strengthening each quarter," with a total sales volume of 539,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [2][3] - The company sold heavy trucks totaling 14,000 units, achieving a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, outperforming the industry average [3] - Revenue reached 26.16 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 670 million yuan, up 7.6% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Industry Outlook - In July 2025, heavy truck sales reached 83,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 42%, indicating a positive market trend [4] - The overall market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with an estimated annual sales volume of around 1 million units [4] Group 3: New Energy Trucks - The new energy heavy truck market experienced rapid growth, with total sales of 79,200 units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 186% [5] - The company’s sales of new energy heavy trucks outpaced the industry growth, driven by policy support and expanding application scenarios [5] Group 4: Natural Gas Trucks - Sales of natural gas heavy trucks in the first half of 2025 totaled 91,500 units, a year-on-year decline of 16% [6][7] - The implementation of the "old-for-new" policy is expected to revitalize the market by accelerating the replacement of old vehicles [7] Group 5: Export Performance - The company's export volume accounted for nearly 50% of total sales in the first half of 2025, focusing on markets in Africa, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East [8] - The export market is transitioning to a more sustainable growth model, with increasing recognition of Chinese brands in emerging markets [8] Group 6: Dividend Policy - The company aims to maintain a stable cash dividend policy, with plans for mid-term cash dividends in 2025 [9] - The dividend payout ratio will be adjusted based on factors such as current share capital, operational performance, and future funding needs [9] Group 7: Accounts Receivable - Accounts receivable increased year-on-year due to a 14.1% rise in sales volume in the first half of 2025 [9] - The company plans to implement comprehensive management strategies to control the scale of accounts receivable while ensuring risk is manageable [9]

Group 1 - Foton Motor announced a joint venture with Yiwei Lithium Energy, each investing 250 million yuan to expand the new energy heavy truck business and provide diverse battery leasing solutions [2] - Yiwei Lithium Energy is accelerating its push into the new energy commercial vehicle battery business, having launched eight new commercial vehicle battery products, including three heavy truck models [2] - The new energy commercial vehicle market is experiencing growth, with sales of 532,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%, although this growth rate has decreased compared to 2023 [3][4] Group 2 - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks has increased to 19.7% in the first quarter of this year, driven by policies and declining battery costs [4][5] - New energy heavy trucks have shown cost advantages over diesel trucks, with lower power and maintenance costs by 30%-50% [5] - The market predicts that the penetration rate of electric heavy trucks in short-distance scenarios could reach 35% by 2025, with potential growth in the next decade [5] Group 3 - Various technology routes are emerging in the heavy truck market, with lithium battery technology remaining dominant, while companies like CATL are aggressively pursuing battery swap solutions [6][7] - Sodium-ion batteries are being developed for heavy trucks, with expectations for significant cost reductions and improved performance [8] - Hydrogen fuel cells are also being targeted for heavy trucks, with companies like Jichong Hydrogen Energy planning to launch new products aimed at this market [9] Group 4 - LNG (liquefied natural gas) is viewed as a transitional technology for heavy truck transformation, with demand recovering due to policy support and competitive pricing [10] - The overall market for new energy heavy trucks is expected to become more competitive as production capacity increases and demand grows [10]