国信期货贵金属专题报告 / 国信期货研究 Page 1 白银 海外风暴突袭市场 白银巨震风控第一 2026 年 2 月 3 日 主要结论 2022 年 12 月 25 日 2026 年 1 月，黄金与白银承接上年强势，在宏观不确定性与地缘风险持续 交织的推动下，再度开启新一轮凌厉涨势。然而，极致的狂欢往往预示着风险的 临近。这场盛宴在持续不到 48 小时后便戛然而止，一场罕见的史诗级暴跌在 1 月 30 日晚间猝然降临，瞬间逆转了市场叙事。其根本原因在于前期脱离基本面 的急速拉升，积累了天量的高杠杆获利盘，市场结构极度脆弱。而特朗普正式提 名立场偏鹰的凯文·沃什为美联储下任主席，打破了市场对"无约束宽松"的政 策幻想，触发大规模、连锁式的流动性踩踏，导致纽约期金单日跌幅超 10%，白 银暴跌逾 30%。 短期内，投资者应以谨慎防守为主。黄金的长期配置逻辑虽未破坏，但在市 场剧烈波动中，建议仅保留轻仓的黄金多头作为底仓，目的在于保持对长期趋势 的接触，而非博弈短期波动。白银期货由于投机属性更强、波动性显著更高，目 前风险已急剧放大，建议投资者保持极度谨慎，可考虑及时减仓或转为观望。临 近春节长假，外盘潜在的不确 ...

Market Overview - The silver futures market experienced a significant drop, with the main contract falling 20% shortly after opening on February 2, following a previous day of trading that also saw major declines in other commodities like tin, oil, and nickel [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) issued a notice urging market participants to enhance risk management and maintain a rational approach to trading amid increased market volatility [1] Price Movements - Gold prices peaked at a historical high of $5,598.75 per ounce on January 29, but fell to around $4,600 by February 2 [2] - Silver prices also saw a drastic decline, dropping from a high of $121.647 per ounce on January 29 to approximately $80 by February 2 [2] - In the domestic futures market, the main gold contract fell from a high of 1,258.72 yuan per gram to about 1,050 yuan by February 2, while the main silver contract dropped from 32,382 yuan per kilogram to around 20,600 yuan [2] Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the extreme volatility in precious metals to external macroeconomic factors and liquidity disturbances rather than domestic fundamentals [1] - The recent market downturn is seen as a "chain reaction" triggered by the collapse of the U.S. financial market, exacerbated by the nomination of a hawkish figure for the Federal Reserve chair position [1] - The SHFE has proactively implemented measures to mitigate external shocks, including increasing margin requirements and expanding price fluctuation limits [2] Regulatory Actions - The SHFE has taken regulatory measures against certain clients for exceeding trading limits, which included restricting their ability to open new positions [4] - The exchange has also issued penalties for manipulative trading practices, including suspensions of trading for involved parties [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in silver futures and other commodities is primarily driven by external macroeconomic factors and liquidity disturbances rather than domestic fundamentals [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Following a significant drop in the U.S. financial markets, silver futures experienced a 20% decline, hitting the limit down shortly after opening on February 2 [1]. - The London spot gold price peaked at $5,598.75 per ounce on January 29 before plummeting to around $4,600 by February 2, while silver fell from a high of $121.647 per ounce to approximately $80 [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) responded to market volatility by increasing margin requirements and expanding the price fluctuation limits for related contracts [3]. Group 2: Risk Management Measures - The SHFE has implemented various risk management measures, including issuing risk alerts and enhancing market monitoring to mitigate external shocks [3]. - The leverage level for silver futures has decreased from 7-8 times to approximately 4-5 times due to the increase in margin requirements [3]. - On February 2, the SHFE also imposed restrictions on certain clients for exceeding trading limits, indicating a proactive approach to maintaining market order [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Actions - The SHFE has taken disciplinary actions against individuals involved in manipulative trading practices, including suspending trading privileges for two months for specific violations [4]. - The exchange's measures aim to ensure compliance with trading regulations and maintain a stable trading environment [4].