Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000)[2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate from 62.6% to 62.4%[4] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-on-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3] - The average weekly hours worked remained at 34.3 hours, indicating stable labor income growth[3] - Wage growth is crucial for protecting consumer purchasing power, especially for low- and middle-income groups, amid inflation concerns[5] Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3] - The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year decreased from 2.1 to 1.8, and the year-end policy rate expectation rose from 3.795% to 3.886%[3] - Following the report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05% and the Nasdaq up 1.2%, indicating a rebound in risk appetite[3]

"资金削减和政策不确定性也可能通过政府合同商等渠道影响私营部门就业，影响可能在2月之后的月份显现，比如在专业服务等领域，" 报告指出。此外，关 税不确定性、高利率和美元走强也可能进一步削弱制造业就业，而制造业在相当长一段时间里已经疲软。 3月4日，花旗银行经济学家Veronica Clark和Andrew Hollenhorst在报告中表示，美国2月就业增长将放缓至13.5万个岗位，与1月的14.3万相比略有下降，但 仍属健康增长范畴。 花旗预计， 尽管失业率预计将保持在4.1%的相对稳定水平，但2月可能是"健康"就业数据持续的最后一个月，就业环境在春季和夏季可能进一步恶化，联邦政 府裁员和政府资金削减将成为额外的下行风险，失业率可能在今年年中攀升至约5%的水平。 失业率：短期稳定，预计将在年中达到约5%的水平 花旗经济学家预计2月份非农就业增长13.5万个岗位，与1月份的14.3万个岗位基本持平。花旗指出，尽管较2024年第四季度增速减缓，这一数据仍属健康范 畴，且可能因季节性调整因素而有一定上行空间。 据花旗，私营部门就业预计将增加12万个岗位，略高于1月份的11.1万个。政府部门就业可能受到影响，特别是 ...