Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the rebar 2510 contract is expected to continue its oscillatory bottom - seeking trend. It advises to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the accumulation of industrial contradictions that put downward pressure on steel prices [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the rebar 2510 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is also oscillatory and weak. It is recommended to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the accumulation of industrial contradictions leading to downward pressure on steel prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, steel spot prices declined slightly with average trading volume. Rebar production has risen to a new high for the year, increasing supply pressure. Although rebar demand has improved, the improvement's sustainability is questionable as the downstream situation has not improved. In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, inventory is rising, and steel prices are under pressure. The relatively positive factors are cost increases and expectations of peak - season demand. The report expects rebar to continue its oscillatory bottom - seeking trend and advises to monitor demand performance [3].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.49% and the CSI 300 Index increased by 4.18% during the week of August 18-22 [2][3] - The SW Nonferrous Metals Index saw a gain of 1.33%, while COMEX gold and silver prices increased by 1.05% and 2.26%, respectively [2][3] Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices showed mixed movements: LME aluminum +0.73%, copper +0.50%, zinc +0.32%, lead +0.56%, nickel -1.45%, and tin +0.70% [2][3] - The SMM imported copper concentrate index reported a decrease of $3.47/ton to $-41.15/ton, while the copper rod enterprises' operating rate rose to 71.80%, up by 1.20 percentage points [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 11,000 tons, totaling 596,000 tons, indicating a slight increase in production and improved demand expectations [3] - Recommended companies in the industrial metals sector include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Minmetals Resources, China Nonferrous Mining, and others [3] Energy Metals - Cobalt raw material imports continue to decline, suggesting a potential price surge for cobalt, while lithium supply disruptions remain a concern [4] - Carbonate lithium prices have rebounded due to increased market activity, with expectations for a strong short-term performance [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to strengthen as domestic inventory continues to deplete, with stable price increases for cobalt sulfate [4] - Recommended companies in the energy metals sector include Cangge Mining, Huayou Cobalt, and others [4] Precious Metals - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has positively influenced gold prices, with the People's Bank of China continuing to increase gold reserves for nine consecutive months [5] - Silver prices are also rising due to its industrial properties and recovery dynamics [5] - Recommended companies in the precious metals sector include Shandong Gold, Tongguan Gold, and others, with a focus on potential opportunities if gold prices stabilize above $3,500/oz [5]

需求不及预期成为近期螺纹价格走势的主要原因。"本周国内螺纹钢现货成交情况先强后落，华东持续 出现雨水天气，对整体需求形成一定影响，成交量环比有所回落。"邱跃成表示。据Mysteel的监测数 据，本周前三天，全国建材日均成交量为21.04万吨，比上周回落6.06%;杭州地区螺纹钢库存尽管降至 91.9万吨，但日均出库存量仅为3.9万吨，比上周回落2.74%。宏观层面，国家统计局最新公布的数据显 示，8月份地产新开工增速为2.41%，较7月份大幅回落8.91个百分点;施工增速也较较7月回落3.41个百分 点至13.22%;8月基建投资增速为7.03%，较7月回落0.71个百分点。 9月17日，我的钢铁网发布最新一周的钢材产量及库存数据显示，截至9月17日当周，国内螺纹钢产量环 比增加1.06万吨至372.6万吨，同比增加27.75万吨。与此同时，螺纹库存明显下降。其中，社库环比减 少12.48万吨，至881.1万吨;厂库环比减少2.89万吨，至355.28万吨。"本周螺纹周产量小幅回升，但总库 存降幅有所扩大。综合之下，本周螺纹表观消费量环比增加9.77万吨至387.97万吨，同比增加22.91万 吨。"光大期货 ...