1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of steel are both weak, inventory is still accumulating, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the market's expectation for peak - season demand is average. The inventory pressure of iron ore remains, the resumption of coal mines after the Spring Festival will accelerate, the downstream replenishment willingness of coking coal is limited, and the supply - demand pressure of glass and soda ash remains. The prices of related varieties are under pressure. Affected by the news of South African manganese ore, the alloy futures market is strong, but it will face obvious selling - hedging pressure when the price rises to a high level [1] - Currently in the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectation is still cautious. The futures market still has downward adjustment pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the realization of peak - season demand [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: The supply side still has expectations of weather disturbances. The current market has average expectations for post - festival demand, but the pressure has been released after the rapid decline of the futures market. With the upcoming Two Sessions after the Spring Festival, there are still macro expectations. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [7] - Scrap steel: The supply and demand are both weak in the short term, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuates little. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and actual demand in the future [8] Carbon Element - Coke: After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to continue to grow. As logistics and transportation gradually recover, the inventory accumulation of coking enterprises will be alleviated. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy. The spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [11] - Coking coal: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamental contradiction of coking coal is not prominent. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [12] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the upstream inventory is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of manganese ore prices and the production control efforts of manufacturers [15] - Ferrosilicon: The supply and demand are both weak, the fundamental contradiction is not large, but there is no obvious upward driving force in the futures market. The futures price is expected to fluctuate at a low level around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and electricity costs, as well as the changes in the production start - up level of manufacturers [17] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The supply still has disturbance expectations, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair, the high inventory will always suppress the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13] - Soda ash: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [13] Other Information - The report also provides daily monitoring data of spot and futures indicators of black building materials varieties, including spot prices, basis, and futures market profits of various varieties [20] - The report shows the commodity index and plate index of CITIC Futures on February 26, 2026, including the comprehensive index, characteristic index, and plate index, as well as their changes [102][104]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the rebar 2510 contract is expected to continue its oscillatory bottom - seeking trend. It advises to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the accumulation of industrial contradictions that put downward pressure on steel prices [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the rebar 2510 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is also oscillatory and weak. It is recommended to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the accumulation of industrial contradictions leading to downward pressure on steel prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, steel spot prices declined slightly with average trading volume. Rebar production has risen to a new high for the year, increasing supply pressure. Although rebar demand has improved, the improvement's sustainability is questionable as the downstream situation has not improved. In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, inventory is rising, and steel prices are under pressure. The relatively positive factors are cost increases and expectations of peak - season demand. The report expects rebar to continue its oscillatory bottom - seeking trend and advises to monitor demand performance [3].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.49% and the CSI 300 Index increased by 4.18% during the week of August 18-22 [2][3] - The SW Nonferrous Metals Index saw a gain of 1.33%, while COMEX gold and silver prices increased by 1.05% and 2.26%, respectively [2][3] Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices showed mixed movements: LME aluminum +0.73%, copper +0.50%, zinc +0.32%, lead +0.56%, nickel -1.45%, and tin +0.70% [2][3] - The SMM imported copper concentrate index reported a decrease of $3.47/ton to $-41.15/ton, while the copper rod enterprises' operating rate rose to 71.80%, up by 1.20 percentage points [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 11,000 tons, totaling 596,000 tons, indicating a slight increase in production and improved demand expectations [3] - Recommended companies in the industrial metals sector include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Minmetals Resources, China Nonferrous Mining, and others [3] Energy Metals - Cobalt raw material imports continue to decline, suggesting a potential price surge for cobalt, while lithium supply disruptions remain a concern [4] - Carbonate lithium prices have rebounded due to increased market activity, with expectations for a strong short-term performance [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to strengthen as domestic inventory continues to deplete, with stable price increases for cobalt sulfate [4] - Recommended companies in the energy metals sector include Cangge Mining, Huayou Cobalt, and others [4] Precious Metals - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has positively influenced gold prices, with the People's Bank of China continuing to increase gold reserves for nine consecutive months [5] - Silver prices are also rising due to its industrial properties and recovery dynamics [5] - Recommended companies in the precious metals sector include Shandong Gold, Tongguan Gold, and others, with a focus on potential opportunities if gold prices stabilize above $3,500/oz [5]

Core Viewpoint - The black commodity sector has experienced significant declines, with iron ore prices falling below 800 yuan per ton and rebar futures continuing to drop due to disappointing demand expectations in the real estate and infrastructure sectors [1][2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic rebar production increased by 10,600 tons week-on-week to 3.726 million tons, and year-on-year it rose by 277,500 tons [1] - Rebar inventory decreased significantly, with social inventory down by 124,800 tons to 8.811 million tons and factory inventory down by 28,900 tons to 3.5528 million tons [1] - Apparent consumption of rebar increased by 97,700 tons week-on-week to 3.8797 million tons, and year-on-year it increased by 229,100 tons [1] - The current profit margins for both long-process and short-process steel mills remain negative, although some electric arc furnaces have resumed production due to falling scrap steel prices [1] Market Sentiment - The demand for rebar has not met expectations, leading to a negative impact on market sentiment [2] - The average daily transaction volume of construction materials nationwide decreased by 6.06% week-on-week to 210,400 tons [1] - In the Hangzhou area, despite a reduction in rebar inventory to 919,000 tons, the average daily inventory turnover was only 39,000 tons, down 2.74% from the previous week [1] - Recent macroeconomic data shows that the growth rate of new real estate starts in August was 2.41%, a significant drop of 8.91 percentage points from July, while construction growth also fell by 3.41 percentage points to 13.22% [1]