研究报告 – PVC 月报 金融研究院 报告日期 2026 年 2 月 27 日 节后修复与去库预期博弈 基差收敛但库存压力仍在 2 月 PVC 市场在春节假期前后呈现"预期先行、现 实滞后"的特征：现货端（常州 SG-5）月均价约 4764 元/吨，较 1 月抬升约 2.9%；期现结构仍处于 深度贴水，但节后收敛迹象较为明确。资金层面， 节后成交与持仓同步回升，2 月日均成交约 94.8 万手、日均持仓约 163.9 万手，分别较 1 月提升约 5.9%和 5.6%。交割端，注册仓单在 2 月回落约- 4.7%，未见明显被动累库压力。基本面方面，春节 因素导致社会库存与厂库阶段性累库。成本与利润 结构有所改善，乙烯法毛利由 1 月均值亏损转为 2 月均值小幅盈利，电石法亏损收窄。展望 3 月，需 求端的复工复产与"金三银四"补库预期将推动库 存去化，但库存高位与供应弹性仍将限制趋势性上 行空间，盘面更可能在"去库验证—基差修复—利 润驱动供给回升"的链条中反复博弈。 范阿骄 一、行情回顾 （1）期货价格震荡下行，月末加速回落 从业资格号: F3054801 投资咨询证号： Z0016954 2026 年 2 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The overall futures market experienced fluctuations with a divergence in performance across sectors during the week of December 15 to December 19, with energy and chemical sectors performing well while agricultural products generally declined [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil decreased by 0.50% and crude oil fell by 2.66%, while the black series saw coking coal increase by 9.02% and iron ore rise by 2.28% [1] - Precious metals maintained strength with gold rising by 1.01% and silver increasing by 3.26%, while agricultural products like eggs and palm oil saw declines of 1.58% and 3.19% respectively [1] Group 2: Polyester Market Dynamics - PX and PTA futures prices surged, reaching new highs not seen in three months, with PX hitting a peak since March and PTA surpassing 4900 yuan/ton [3] - The PTA market is experiencing a de-stocking trend, with a stable supply-demand balance and expectations of limited inventory pressure, supporting price increases [3][4] - The polyester industry maintained a weekly output of 155.72 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 86.9%, indicating stable supply conditions [3] Group 3: Gold Market Outlook - Gold prices are fluctuating near historical highs, with optimistic market expectations for future price increases, as Goldman Sachs predicts a rise to 4900 USD/oz by 2026 [5] - Global gold supply increased by 3% year-on-year to 1313 tons in Q3, while demand surged, leading to upward pressure on gold prices [5] - The core factor influencing gold prices is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with recent rate cuts providing macro support for gold price increases [6] Group 4: U.S. Labor Market Insights - The U.S. labor market showed mixed signals, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021, and a total of 7.83 million unemployed individuals [8][9] - Non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, primarily in healthcare, construction, and social assistance, while transportation and federal government jobs decreased [8] - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.5%, indicating a return of residents to the labor market, although the unemployment rate still rose due to challenges in job placement [9] Group 5: Inflation Data and Economic Implications - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year in November, lower than the 3% increase in September, but the data is viewed cautiously due to issues arising from a government shutdown [10][11] - The core CPI also increased by 2.6%, but economists remain skeptical about the sustainability of this trend due to data collection challenges [10] - The Federal Reserve faces complex decisions balancing price stability and full employment, with future policy directions likely to be sensitive to upcoming economic data [11]