Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The current trading focus of the soybean meal futures is on the spot market, where the downstream is eager to fix prices as the end - March price - fixing date approaches, leading to a stable basis. The overall soybean inventory of domestic oil mills is decreasing, and the soybean meal inventory is also falling. The market is trading on expectations and selling on reality due to the Sino - US negotiation in April and the delay of the RVO policy, causing the futures price to decline from its high. In the short - term, the spot price is supported by slow shipping and rising freight costs from Brazil, but the medium - term large - supply logic remains unchanged. The rapeseed meal has regained cost - effectiveness after the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the aquaculture stocking season in South China is approaching, and early aquaculture fry stocking may boost demand. However, there is an expectation of supply recovery, and the pressure of warehouse receipts still exists [2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: Near the end - March price - fixing date, downstream price - fixing sentiment is strong, and the basis is stable. Overall oil - mill soybean inventory is falling, and soybean meal inventory is also decreasing. The market is affected by Sino - US negotiations and the RVO policy, with short - term support from Brazilian shipping issues but a medium - term large - supply outlook. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is narrowing [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The aquaculture stocking season in South China is approaching, with early fry stocking. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has widened, making rapeseed meal more cost - effective. However, supply is expected to recover, and warehouse - receipt pressure remains [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Basis Strategy**: For unfixed basis, consider fixing prices when the Brazilian premium starts to decline. For fixed basis, be cautious about the subsequent sales pace. In the medium - term downward cycle, consider fixed - price purchases [21]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: There is continuous bottom - fishing by funds, but valuation and supply limit the rebound of the 05 contract. The bottom of soybean meal is around 3000. Consider a light - position long spread between different months of soybean meal [22]. - **Month - Spread Strategy**: Long the spread between different months of soybean meal [23]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: Take profit on widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal for the 2605 contract [23]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.3%. The price range of rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 56.7% [24]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Traders with high protein inventory can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures to lock in purchase costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits [24]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts show different changes, with some rising and some falling. The CBOT yellow soybean price is stable, and the offshore RMB exchange rate has a slight decline [25]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different months of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures, as well as the spreads between spot and futures prices, show various changes [25]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: The import costs of US and Brazilian soybeans have different changes, and the pressing profits also vary [26]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US soybean crushing volume in February was 208.75 million bushels, a 5.8% month - on - month decrease but a 17.4% year - on - year increase, higher than analysts' expectations. The US and South American grain freight rates to China were stable or rising. Brazil's animal and plant health official will visit China to discuss soybean shipment inspection procedures. Brazilian soybean sales to China this week dropped sharply [28][29]. - **Negative Information**: The Sino - US summit may be postponed, which adds uncertainty to the market. The soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso and Brazil shows different situations, and the Brazilian soybean production forecast is slightly adjusted [30][31][32]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The downstream near - month physical inventory is high, and the downstream is gradually fixing prices, with slower提货 than before [33]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monday: USDA export inspection report [36]. - Tuesday: NOPA soybean crushing report and Brazil Secex weekly report [37]. - Thursday: USDA export sales report [37]. - Saturday: CFTC agricultural product positions [37]. Chapter 3: Futures Price Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures price was affected by Brazilian shipping issues and funds, then declined due to Sino - US negotiation and RVO policy expectations. Rapeseed meal followed soybean meal. The key profitable seats in soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures increased short positions, and the bullish sentiment in soybean meal options was rising. The futures month - spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal maintained a B - structure, and the 5 - 9 month - spread was in a long - spread rhythm. The basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was strong, and the spot - futures spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to widen [36][38][43]. - **International Market**: The international soybean futures price has been rising this year but dropped due to the Middle East situation, Sino - US negotiation delay, and possible further delay of the RVO policy. The CFTC data shows that managed funds are back in a bullish position [58][64]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The soybean crushing profit in the US has slightly declined, while the profits in South American production areas (Brazil and Argentina) have increased due to rising product prices. The domestic crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed has slightly declined [70]. 4.2 Import - Export and Pressing Profit Tracking - The expected soybean imports in April and May are 8.5 million tons and 10.5 million tons respectively, with a downward adjustment in April due to Brazilian shipping delays. The pressing profit of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal has increased, and the supply is expected to recover [77]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - **US**: According to the USDA March supply - demand report, the US 2025/26 soybean planting area, harvest area, yield, production, export, and ending stocks are the same as in February, with imports and crushings slightly increased. The increase in US fertilizer prices may lead farmers to increase soybean planting [97][98]. - **South America**: The USDA March supply - demand report shows that the expected soybean production in Argentina in 2025/26 is reduced from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons, and exports remain at 8.25 million tons. Brazil's soybean production and exports are the same as last month [98]. 5.2 Domestic Supply - Side and Projection - The arrival pressure of imported soybeans in the second quarter will suppress the overall height of the main M05 contract. After the tariff reduction between China and Canada, the supply pressure of rapeseed also has a recovery expectation [99]. 5.3 Domestic Demand - Side and Projection - Although the domestic soybean supply in the first quarter has decreased, it is still relatively abundant. The subsequent crushing volume is expected to remain high, and the consumption of domestic soybean meal is difficult to increase significantly after high - level stocking [101]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory - Side and Projection - The domestic soybean inventory will decline in the first quarter and start to increase after the arrival of Brazilian soybeans in the second quarter, and the soybean meal inventory will follow [104].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - This week, the LPG price was mainly affected by the weakening domestic fundamentals, with an increase in supply and a decrease in demand expectations, leading to a significant decline in the disk price. However, the price rebounded slightly on Friday night due to the influence of the SASAC's "anti - involution" policy, and the market volatility increased [2][6]. - In the short - term, the LPG market is expected to be in a volatile state, with the price range of PG01 predicted to be between 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton [16]. - In the long - term, the LPG market is affected by multiple factors on both the supply and demand sides. The supply pressure from the US is relatively large, while the demand in different regions shows different characteristics [13]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end: Crude oil was under the pressure of oversupply and geopolitical issues, and it oscillated weakly this week but remained within the oscillation range [1]. - Overseas market: It was relatively strong. US demand increased and inventory decreased, while Middle - East shipments remained at a low level. The FEI premium was $37.25, and the CP premium was $42 [1]. - Domestic fundamentals: They weakened slightly. The supply increased due to the rise in arrivals, and port inventory accumulated. On the demand side, although PDH started to operate at a higher rate due to the resumption of production in some enterprises, there were rumors of maintenance plans, and the demand expectation weakened. The number of warrants increased to 5476 this week [1][6]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: Oscillation, with the price range of PG01 at 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton [16]. - Basis strategy: Oscillation. The basis strengthened as the disk price fell from its high this week [16]. - Spread strategy: Reverse arbitrage (3 - 4) at high prices [16]. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Narrow the internal - external spread and widen the PP/PG ratio at low prices [16]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - LPG price range forecast: 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 23.00% and a historical percentage of 40.18% in the past 3 years [17]. - Hedging strategy: For inventory management, when inventory is high, short PG futures and sell call options; for procurement management, when inventory is low, buy PG futures and sell put options [17]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive factors: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and the overseas market remained tight with high premiums [24]. - Negative factors: The number of warrants increased to 5476, and the PDH maintenance expectation increased [24]. 2.2 Next Week's Attention Events - On December 16, pay attention to the US unemployment rate; on December 18, pay attention to the US CPI year - on - year. Also, focus on the further implementation of high - energy - consumption project control [24]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement - The PG01 contract oscillated and declined this week. The net positions of major profitable seats decreased slightly, and the long positions of the top 5 in the order book decreased significantly, while the short positions of the top 5 remained unchanged. The net short positions of powerful seats decreased slightly, and the net long positions of foreign investors decreased slightly while those of retail investors increased slightly [21]. Basis and Spread Structure - The LPG term structure remained in a BACK structure this week, with the 1 - 2 spread at 84 yuan/ton (+5) [25]. - In the overseas market, the FEI M1 - M2 spread was $19/ton (+6); the CP M1 - M2 spread was $9/ton (+4.5); the MB M1 - M2 spread was $2.9/ton (-3.25). FEI and CP were generally suitable for positive arbitrage [37]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis Upstream Profits - The gross profit of major refineries was 645 yuan/ton (+52), and that of Shandong independent refineries was 443 yuan/ton (-12). The profit fluctuations were not significant this week [42]. Downstream Profits - The PDH profit calculated by FEI was - 237 yuan/ton (+109), and that calculated by CP was - 553 yuan/ton (+16), indicating continuous losses. The MTBE gas - separation profit was - 63.75 yuan/ton (-1.25), the isomerization profit was - 188 yuan/ton (-138), and the alkylation oil profit was - 473 yuan/ton (-61) [44]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Overseas Supply and Demand - US supply and demand: With the cooling weather, weekly demand improved significantly, but production was relatively high, and inventory decreased at a normal rate. From January to November, US LPG exports increased year - on - year, but the volume to China decreased [52][57]. - Middle - East supply: From January to November, Middle - East LPG exports increased year - on - year. Shipments were low in November due to high domestic demand [60]. - Indian supply and demand: From January to November, India's LPG demand and imports increased year - on - year. The second half of the year was the peak season, with high demand and imports [62]. - South Korean supply and demand: The seasonality of LPG demand was not obvious. The import volume was expected to remain at a relatively high level, but there was a slight increase in November and a recent rebound [65]. - Japanese supply and demand: Japan was highly dependent on LPG imports, and the demand and import seasonality were obvious. The import volume was expected to increase with the cooling weather [68]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - Supply: With high refinery profits, domestic LPG production was expected to remain at a high level, but the external supply volume was not high, and the import volume was also low [72]. - Demand: Based on profit and seasonality, chemical demand decreased while combustion demand increased. The chemical demand in the fourth quarter was better than expected [72]. - Inventory: There was a slight reduction in overall inventory, mainly at the port [73].