1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig market is neutral [4]. - The investment rating for the egg market is cautiously bearish [6]. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the pig market, the price showed a trend of being weak first and then strong in December. The supply and demand situation in January is complex, with both supply and demand increasing in the middle and late January, and attention should be paid to the price game. The supply in the first quarter of this year is relatively sufficient [1][2][3]. - In the egg market, the spot price fluctuated in the first half - month, declined rapidly after the Winter Solstice, and rebounded slightly at the end of the month. The supply pressure remains high, and the demand support during festivals is less than expected. The current egg market is in a seasonal consumption off - season with over - capacity [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: On December 31, 2025, the closing price of the live hog 2603 contract was 11,795 yuan/ton, up 545 yuan/ton from the previous month, a rise of 4.84% [1]. - Spot: The ex - ternary live hog prices in Henan, Jiangsu, and Sichuan were 11.67 yuan/kg, 11.90 yuan/kg, and 11.94 yuan/kg respectively. The prices in Henan and Jiangsu decreased slightly from the previous month, while that in Sichuan increased. The spot basis in different regions changed accordingly [1]. - Supply: In November, the inventory of breeding sows decreased by 0.37% month - on - month; the elimination volume increased. The inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. In December, the average slaughter weight of live hogs increased slightly [2]. - Demand: In December, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate was 39.44%, an increase of 5.32 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - Inventory: In December, the frozen product storage capacity rate of domestic key slaughter enterprises was 17.91%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points [2]. Market Analysis - In December, the pig price was weak in the first half and strong in the second half. The supply rhythm of large - scale enterprises was different in the first and second half of the month. The consumption expectation during the Winter Solstice and curing season supported the price. The epidemic situation affected the slaughter structure, but the overall impact on price was controllable. The demand in December was in the seasonal peak, but the fresh sales rate was lower than last year, and the frozen product inventory digestion was not as expected [2][3]. - In January, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises is not large in the first half, and the tight supply of large hogs may be alleviated in the second half. The demand has pre - festival stocking support, but it is difficult to form a concentrated demand. The supply in the first quarter is relatively sufficient [3]. Strategy - The strategy for the pig market is neutral [4]. Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg futures main 2603 contract last month was 2,951 yuan/500 kg, a decrease of 160 yuan from the previous month, a decline of 5.14% [4]. - Spot: The egg spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, and Shandong increased from the previous month, and the spot basis also changed accordingly [4]. - Supply: In December, the inventory of laying hens decreased by 0.92% month - on - month, and the elimination volume of old hens increased. The average elimination age decreased [4]. - Demand: The arrival volume in Beijing and Guangdong markets increased. The production - link and circulation - link inventories decreased [4]. Market Analysis - The egg spot price fluctuated in the first half of the month, declined rapidly after the Winter Solstice, and rebounded slightly at the end of the month. The supply pressure decreased but was still at a high level. The demand support during festivals was less than expected, and the egg market was in a seasonal consumption off - season with over - capacity [5]. Strategy - The strategy for the egg market is cautiously bearish [6]. Table 1: Breeding Sector Basis - The current basis situation shows different changes in different regions for live hogs and eggs. The basis is expected to strengthen, and the basis strategy suggests that the breeding sector is in a situation of oversupply, and the seasonal consumption support has a stronger boosting effect on live hogs than on eggs. It is recommended to mainly adopt the reverse spread strategy [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term sentiment boost drives the polyolefin market to stop falling and rebound, but the change in the supply - demand fundamentals is still limited. - For PE, the supply pressure increases due to new device production, limited new planned maintenance, and expected increase in low - cost imported goods, while the demand remains weak, and there is still pressure on price and inventory removal. - For PP, although there is an expectation of supply reduction and cost support, the short - term rebound depends on whether the scale of device maintenance can increase, and the price increase space is limited due to insufficient demand improvement. - Suggested strategies include short - term cautious short - selling hedging for LLDPE, waiting and seeing for PP, and specific operations for cross - period and cross - variety spread trading [3][5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价6472元/吨（+11）, PP主力合约收盘价6348元/吨（+27）. LL华北现货6300元/吨（+0）, LL华东现货6450元/吨（+50）, PP华东现货6160元/吨（+0）. LL华北基差 - 172元/吨（+9）, LL华东基差 - 72元/吨（ - 11）, PP华东基差 - 188元/吨（ - 17） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE上月产量301万吨（+12）, LLDPE产量143万吨（+9）, PE开工率84%（+0%）; PP上月产量356万吨（+9）, PP开工率77%（ - 3%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润64.5元/吨（+78.3）, PP油制生产利润 - 415.5元/吨（+78.3）, PDH制PP生产利润 - 828.8元/吨（ - 35.7） [1]. - **Import and Export**: PE11月进口量106万吨（+5）, 11月出口量9万吨（+0）; PP11月进口量30万吨（+3）, 11月出口量26万吨（+2）. LL进口利润99.3元/吨（ - 2.5）, PP进口利润 - 351.2元/吨（+7.4）, PP出口利润 - 22.4美元/吨（ - 0.9） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率45%（ - 5%）, PE下游包装膜开工率49%（ - 2%）, PP下游塑编开工率44%（+0%）, PP下游BOPP膜开工率63%（+0%） [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Spread**: In early December, the price dropped due to supply and demand issues. In late December, it rebounded slightly, but the supply - demand contradiction remains, and the short - term rebound drive is limited [3]. - **Supply**: Only a new 50 - million - ton/year FDPE device of Zhanjiang BASF was put into production in December. In 2026, the new production slows down, with a capacity growth rate of 11.9%. There is a new production vacuum period in Q1. The planned maintenance in January is limited, and the import window is open again, increasing supply pressure. Some devices may switch production [3]. - **Import and Export**: In November, the import volume was 106.22 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.93% and a month - on - month increase of 5.04%. The import window reopened in December, and the expected increase in low - cost imported goods may impact domestic supply [4]. - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall downstream PE开工 continues to decline. The demand for agricultural films and packaging films is weak, and the demand support remains weak [4]. - **Inventory**: After the festival, the inventory accumulates. The inventory removal of each link in the industrial chain may slow down, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure around the Spring Festival [5]. 3.2.2 Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Spread**: In early December, the price dropped due to supply - demand imbalance. Near the end of the month, it rebounded, but the rebound height depends on whether the device maintenance can be realized [6]. - **Supply**: No new device was put into production in December. Only a 15 - million - ton external - propylene - purchasing PP device of Huizhou Lituo is expected to be put into production in Q1 2026, but there is uncertainty. The profit pressure may lead to more device maintenance [6]. - **Import and Export**: In November 2025, the import volume was 30.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.64%, and the export volume was 25.74 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.49%. The import window is not open, and the export may increase [7]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream开工 is weak, except for BOPP. The policy in 2026 is beneficial to demand, but the overall support is limited [7]. - **Inventory**: The upstream inventory pressure exists, and the inventory removal of each link is not smooth. There is still inventory removal pressure due to limited demand [7]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously short - sell and hedge for LLDPE at high prices; wait and see for PP, and pay attention to device maintenance and cost disturbances [8]. - **Cross - period**: Do reverse spreads for L05 - 09 contract spreads at high prices [8]. - **Cross - variety**: Do short - selling operations for the long - term L - PP spread at high prices [8]. 3.4 Polyolefin Basis Strategy - **PE Basis Strategy**: The 05 contract basis of LLDPE continues to weaken. In January, the basis may fluctuate weakly in the range of - 100 to - 200. It is recommended to do reverse spreads for L05 - 09 spreads at high prices [13]. - **PP Basis Strategy**: The 05 contract basis of PP fluctuates weakly in the range of - 130 to - 210. The basis may continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the realization of device maintenance, and the month - spread fluctuates within a range [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views Nickel - In December 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a strong V - shaped reversal pattern, rising 13.5% for the month and hitting a new high since 2025. Indonesia's plan to cut the nickel ore quota in 2026 by 34% and the possible 2% tax on associated products like cobalt are the core driving forces for the price rebound [2]. - The supply of primary nickel increased steadily in December due to price recovery and capacity ramping up. The consumption in the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors was in a trough, while the alloy sector was promising. Nickel inventory was still accumulating, and high inventory would suppress the future rebound space of nickel prices [3]. - Currently, the fundamentals show high inventory and oversupply, but with positive policies from Indonesia and nickel's long - term bottom - side oscillation, it is expected to remain strong [4]. Stainless Steel - In December 2025, the main contract of stainless steel showed a pattern of bottom lifting, passive following, and high - level oscillation, rising 6.15% for the month and approaching the annual high, driven by the strength of Shanghai nickel [4]. - The supply of stainless steel decreased in December 2025, while the demand increased slightly due to price - driven market enthusiasm and inventory - building needs. However, the overall weak demand situation in the traditional off - season has not fundamentally changed. The social inventory of stainless steel showed four consecutive drops [5]. - With some macro - positive factors realized and four - week inventory depletion, but the cold downstream demand in the off - season, the stainless - steel price is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, following the trend of Shanghai nickel [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel Sector 1.1 Market Review - In December 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel started at 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, dropped to 111,700 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and rebounded to break through 130,000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 13.5% [11]. 1.2 Primary Nickel Supply Situation - In December 2025, the domestic refined nickel production was 31,400 tons, with a year - on - year change of - 0.37% and a month - on - month change of +21.71%. The expected domestic refined nickel production in 2025 was 390,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year increase. Indonesia's expected annual refined nickel production was 80,000 tons, with new projects like Dingxing and Yongheng releasing capacity and Qingmeibang starting production in the fourth quarter [15]. 1.3 Refined Nickel Consumption Situation - In November 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 25,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.66%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption was 348,400 tons, a 37.15% year - on - year increase. The demand in the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors was in a trough, while the alloy sector had good development, and the overall nickel demand remained stable [34][35]. 1.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 31, the SHFE nickel inventory was 45,544 tons, a 11.7% increase from the previous month, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,300 tons, a 0.4% increase, indicating a more relaxed supply pattern and suppressing the future rebound space of nickel prices [37]. Stainless Steel Sector 2.1 Market Review - In December 2025, the main contract of stainless steel started at 12,375 yuan/ton, dropped to 12,290 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and rebounded to break through 13,000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 6.15% [41]. 2.2 Stainless Steel Supply Situation - In December 2025, the stainless - steel production decreased. The estimated crude - steel output of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants was 3.2671 million tons, a 6.47% month - on - month decrease and a 5.09% year - on - year decrease. The production schedule for January 2026 was 3.327 million tons, a 1.83% month - on - month increase and a 16.27% year - on - year increase [43]. 2.3 Stainless Steel Consumption Situation - In December 2025, the overall stainless - steel consumption increased slightly due to price - driven market enthusiasm and inventory - building needs. The demand in the downstream pipe - making and profile sectors was affected by the traditional off - season, and the overall weak demand situation had not fundamentally changed [51]. 2.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 25, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel in 89 warehouses in the mainstream market was 1,005,136 tons, a 3.55% week - on - week decrease. The inventory showed four consecutive drops due to factors such as the increase in steel - mill prices and active merchant sales at the end of the month [59]. 2.5 Cost - In December, the prices of high - carbon ferrochrome and high - nickel pig iron continued to rise, and the stainless - steel cost continued to increase. The costs of different processes for smelting 304 cold - rolled stainless steel changed to varying degrees [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the cost - side support for PX and PTA weakened slightly, but their prices rose significantly due to the expectation of tight supply and demand for PX in the first half of next year, with improved profitability. However, the spot basis did not increase significantly. PF and PR prices followed the raw materials up, but the increase was less than that of the raw materials. The processing profit of PF was compressed due to weak textile and clothing demand, and the downstream of PR was weak, with only rigid - demand replenishment [1]. - In the short term, PX has a risk of retracement, but the medium - term expectation is still good. The report suggests short - term retracement for PX/PTA/PF/PR and mid - term buying on dips for hedging. For PTA and PX, the 2605 - 2609 month - spread can be bought after retracement [1][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - In December, Brent crude oil price broke through the lower edge of the $60 - 65/barrel range, reaching around $58/barrel. The medium - term fundamental pressure on crude oil still suppressed oil prices. PX and PTA prices rose significantly, with PXN reaching around $380/ton and PTA processing fee recovering to below 300 yuan/ton, but the spot basis did not increase significantly. PF and PR prices followed raw materials up, but the increase was less than that of raw materials. PF processing profit was compressed, and PR basis weakened with a narrowing of the spot processing fee [1][13]. - Regarding the basis strategy, the PTA basis is expected to fluctuate in January, the PX basis is expected to oscillate, the PF basis is expected to adjust passively with raw materials, and the PR basis is expected to move within a range [12]. 3.2 PX and PTA Supply - PX supply: In 2026, the new PX production capacity that can actually be realized is mainly 2 million tons from Liaoning Huajin Aramco, and the total new production capacity including the expansion of Fujia Dahua is expected to be 2.6 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 6%. In December, foreign PX plants operated at a high load, and production continued to increase. There are no maintenance plans in January, and PX production is expected to remain high. Overseas PX operation rate has an upward expectation [2][43]. - PTA supply: 8.7 million tons of new PTA production capacity have been put into operation this year, and there are no new production capacity plans in 2026. In December, due to low profitability, the maintenance volume of PTA plants remained high. In January, some plants will restart, and PTA load and production are expected to increase slightly compared with December [3][43]. 3.3 Inventory - PX inventory: The PX balance sheet is expected to accumulate about 80,000 tons in December. The current PX social inventory is at a seasonally low level, and the inventories in Japan and South Korea are moderately low. In January, the PTA load increase is limited, and the Chinese PX balance sheet is expected to remain in a loose balance, with an expected inventory accumulation of about 90,000 tons [2][55][58]. - PTA inventory: The Chinese PTA social inventory decreased in December, with an estimated de - stocking of about 200,000 tons. In January, although the maintenance loss is still large, the polyester load on the demand side is expected to decline, and PTA is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory (about 70,000 tons). The near - end contradiction is not significant, but the inventory accumulation will increase in February [3][58]. 3.4 Demand - In December, domestic trade orders weakened, the weaving load declined rapidly, and the grey fabric inventory began to accumulate. Foreign trade orders started to place seasonal orders from late December, but the overall level was lower than that of the same period last year. In December, due to the rapid rise of raw materials, weaving enterprises made concentrated replenishment, and filament inventory decreased to a low level. Polyester plants operated at a relatively high load in December, but moderately reduced production at the end of the month [67]. - In January, the downstream shows a weakening trend. The recent rise in raw material prices has not promoted the sales of downstream drawn yarns and grey fabrics. The price is difficult to pass on, and the downstream operation rate may decline rapidly. If downstream enterprises stop production in advance, polyester enterprises may be forced to reduce production in advance or increase the maintenance intensity during the Spring Festival [67]. 3.5 PF Supply, Demand and Inventory - In December, the inventory of staple fiber plants remained stable at a low level, and they maintained a high - load operation. With the increase in raw materials, the profit of downstream polyester yarns decreased significantly. In January, the load may decline rapidly due to weak downstream demand, and the increase is less than that of futures. As demand weakens in January, the load is expected to decline from a high level, and the risk of high - priced raw materials increases. The market mainly purchases on demand with a wait - and - see attitude [4][91][93]. 3.6 PR Supply, Demand and Inventory - Supply: In mid - to late December, two 300,000 - ton plants of Zhuhai Huaren restarted one after another, and the new plant of Fuhai was put into production in January, resulting in a slight increase in domestic supply. - Demand: In the first half of December, the terminal made concentrated replenishment at low prices, and the factory inventory decreased. In the second half, after the rapid rise of raw materials, the terminal was cautious about chasing the rise, and the procurement was relatively rigid. In January, there are both restart and maintenance plans, the demand is weak, the supply - demand is expected to remain weak, and the processing fee space is limited [5][111].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the bond market experienced significant volatility at the end of 2025, with a notable increase in trading volume contrary to typical year-end trends, indicating a dominant position of short positions and profit-taking strategies [7][8]. - The report identifies two main reasons for the observed market behavior: persistent bearish sentiment and speculative trading strategies that exploit low trading volumes to create market fluctuations [8][9]. - It suggests that in a low-interest-rate and high-volatility environment, such phenomena are likely to increase, recommending two strategies for investors: hedging strategies for those seeking to smooth volatility and reverse trading strategies for those looking to capitalize on price corrections [9][11]. Group 2 - The report discusses the outlook for government bond futures, indicating that the cost-effectiveness of positive spread strategies is currently low due to a significant bearish sentiment, with IRR values for main contracts showing a decline [16]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring long-end basis convergence opportunities, as recent market conditions have led to a widening of basis spreads, suggesting potential for mean reversion [19]. - The report notes limited short-term trading opportunities in cross-period strategies due to consistent price movements across contracts, recommending a cautious approach [21]. Group 3 - The report outlines a curve strategy that suggests potential for flat trading opportunities post-holiday, as the long-end and ultra-long-end segments have shown significant declines, indicating a possible rebound [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - This week, the LPG price was mainly affected by the weakening domestic fundamentals, with an increase in supply and a decrease in demand expectations, leading to a significant decline in the disk price. However, the price rebounded slightly on Friday night due to the influence of the SASAC's "anti - involution" policy, and the market volatility increased [2][6]. - In the short - term, the LPG market is expected to be in a volatile state, with the price range of PG01 predicted to be between 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton [16]. - In the long - term, the LPG market is affected by multiple factors on both the supply and demand sides. The supply pressure from the US is relatively large, while the demand in different regions shows different characteristics [13]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end: Crude oil was under the pressure of oversupply and geopolitical issues, and it oscillated weakly this week but remained within the oscillation range [1]. - Overseas market: It was relatively strong. US demand increased and inventory decreased, while Middle - East shipments remained at a low level. The FEI premium was $37.25, and the CP premium was $42 [1]. - Domestic fundamentals: They weakened slightly. The supply increased due to the rise in arrivals, and port inventory accumulated. On the demand side, although PDH started to operate at a higher rate due to the resumption of production in some enterprises, there were rumors of maintenance plans, and the demand expectation weakened. The number of warrants increased to 5476 this week [1][6]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: Oscillation, with the price range of PG01 at 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton [16]. - Basis strategy: Oscillation. The basis strengthened as the disk price fell from its high this week [16]. - Spread strategy: Reverse arbitrage (3 - 4) at high prices [16]. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Narrow the internal - external spread and widen the PP/PG ratio at low prices [16]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - LPG price range forecast: 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 23.00% and a historical percentage of 40.18% in the past 3 years [17]. - Hedging strategy: For inventory management, when inventory is high, short PG futures and sell call options; for procurement management, when inventory is low, buy PG futures and sell put options [17]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive factors: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and the overseas market remained tight with high premiums [24]. - Negative factors: The number of warrants increased to 5476, and the PDH maintenance expectation increased [24]. 2.2 Next Week's Attention Events - On December 16, pay attention to the US unemployment rate; on December 18, pay attention to the US CPI year - on - year. Also, focus on the further implementation of high - energy - consumption project control [24]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement - The PG01 contract oscillated and declined this week. The net positions of major profitable seats decreased slightly, and the long positions of the top 5 in the order book decreased significantly, while the short positions of the top 5 remained unchanged. The net short positions of powerful seats decreased slightly, and the net long positions of foreign investors decreased slightly while those of retail investors increased slightly [21]. Basis and Spread Structure - The LPG term structure remained in a BACK structure this week, with the 1 - 2 spread at 84 yuan/ton (+5) [25]. - In the overseas market, the FEI M1 - M2 spread was $19/ton (+6); the CP M1 - M2 spread was $9/ton (+4.5); the MB M1 - M2 spread was $2.9/ton (-3.25). FEI and CP were generally suitable for positive arbitrage [37]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis Upstream Profits - The gross profit of major refineries was 645 yuan/ton (+52), and that of Shandong independent refineries was 443 yuan/ton (-12). The profit fluctuations were not significant this week [42]. Downstream Profits - The PDH profit calculated by FEI was - 237 yuan/ton (+109), and that calculated by CP was - 553 yuan/ton (+16), indicating continuous losses. The MTBE gas - separation profit was - 63.75 yuan/ton (-1.25), the isomerization profit was - 188 yuan/ton (-138), and the alkylation oil profit was - 473 yuan/ton (-61) [44]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Overseas Supply and Demand - US supply and demand: With the cooling weather, weekly demand improved significantly, but production was relatively high, and inventory decreased at a normal rate. From January to November, US LPG exports increased year - on - year, but the volume to China decreased [52][57]. - Middle - East supply: From January to November, Middle - East LPG exports increased year - on - year. Shipments were low in November due to high domestic demand [60]. - Indian supply and demand: From January to November, India's LPG demand and imports increased year - on - year. The second half of the year was the peak season, with high demand and imports [62]. - South Korean supply and demand: The seasonality of LPG demand was not obvious. The import volume was expected to remain at a relatively high level, but there was a slight increase in November and a recent rebound [65]. - Japanese supply and demand: Japan was highly dependent on LPG imports, and the demand and import seasonality were obvious. The import volume was expected to increase with the cooling weather [68]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - Supply: With high refinery profits, domestic LPG production was expected to remain at a high level, but the external supply volume was not high, and the import volume was also low [72]. - Demand: Based on profit and seasonality, chemical demand decreased while combustion demand increased. The chemical demand in the fourth quarter was better than expected [72]. - Inventory: There was a slight reduction in overall inventory, mainly at the port [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index futures market rebounded significantly last week, with different industries contributing to the gains of various indices. The trading volume of each variety decreased month - on - month, and the basis weakened. It is recommended to pay attention to the inter - period positive arbitrage opportunities, and the roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract. The cross - variety arbitrage time - series synthetic strategy's net value remained flat last week, and new signals were given. The daily timing strategy generally made profits last week, but the new signals of the timing model showed a significant increase in the degree of bearishness [3][4][5][6][7]. - In the bond futures market, the IRR of bond futures decreased this week, the basis strengthened, and the inter - period spread fluctuated weakly. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage space caused by the slight expansion of the inter - period spread. The daily timing strategy signals were mainly long last week, and the interest rate timing signals predicted an upward trend in interest rates [42][43][44]. - In the commodity market, last week, the commodity market generally had more gains than losses. The momentum and term - structure factors performed well, and the volume - price trend and some value - based factors had the largest increase. There may be a risk of factor return retracement in the short term, but the long - term performance of commodity factors is still optimistic. Different tracking strategies have different performance indicators [57][58]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures 3.1.1 Market Review - The market rebounded significantly last week. Electronics and non - ferrous metals contributed to the main gains of the SSE 50; electronics and communications contributed to the main gains of the CSI 300; electronics and power equipment contributed to the main gains of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [3]. - The trading volume of each variety decreased month - on - month, and the basis weakened. IF maintained a shallow discount, while IC and IM maintained a deep discount [4]. 3.1.2 Basis Strategy Recommendation - The basis of each variety weakened. It is expected that the deep discount pattern of IC and IM will continue. It is recommended to pay attention to the inter - period positive arbitrage opportunities, and the roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract [4]. 3.1.3 Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - In the inter - period arbitrage strategy, the net value of each strategy generally made profits last week. The annualized basis rate, positive arbitrage, and momentum factor made profits of 0.4%, 0.1%, and 0% (6 - times leverage) respectively. The annualized basis rate factor turned to a positive arbitrage signal [5]. - The cross - variety arbitrage time - series synthetic strategy's net value remained flat last week. The new cross - variety signals recommend a 50% position to go long on IF and short on IC, and a 100% position to go long on IM and short on IC [6]. 3.1.4 Timing Strategy Tracking - The daily timing strategy generally made profits last week. The SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 had losses of 1.0%, 0.4%, and profits of 1.0%, 0.6% respectively. The new signals of the timing model showed a significant increase in the degree of bearishness, and the model was bearish on the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 [7]. 3.2 Bond Futures 3.2.1 Basis and Inter - period Spread - The IRR of bond futures decreased this week, the basis strengthened, and the inter - period spread fluctuated weakly. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage space caused by the slight expansion of the inter - period spread [42]. 3.2.2 Unilateral Strategy - The bond futures market fluctuated last week. The daily timing strategy signals were mainly long. The main bullish factors included the basis, intraday volume - price, and high - frequency capital flow, while the main bearish factors included daily technicals and member positions [43]. 3.2.3 Interest Rate Timing Signal - The interest rate timing signals predicted an upward trend in interest rates, with a relatively high proportion of long positions in the production factor and inventory factor [44]. 3.3 Commodity Market 3.3.1 Commodity Factor Performance - Last week, the commodity market generally had more gains than losses. Glass, polysilicon, methanol, and silver had significant increases, while coking coal had a significant decline. The momentum and term - structure factors performed well, and the volume - price trend and some value - based factors had an average increase of more than 0.5%. The warehouse - receipt factors also increased slightly, while other factors decreased slightly. There may be a risk of factor return retracement in the short term, but the long - term performance of commodity factors is still optimistic [57]. 3.3.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - Different tracking strategies have different performance indicators. For example, the CWFT strategy has an annualized return of 9.4%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.62, a Calmar ratio of 1.07, a maximum drawdown of - 8.81%, a recent one - week return of 0.11%, and a year - to - date return of 4.53% [58].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The stock market showed resilience with a low - open and high - close trend, while the bond market still has positive factors. November is a period of oscillatory digestion for the stock market, and there may be opportunities for re - layout after December. The bond market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views (1) Stock Index Futures - The market opened low and closed high, showing resilience. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, and the spreads between current and next - month contracts also had changes. Total positions increased. Micro - cap + dividend styles were dominant. November is an oscillatory digestion period, and it is advisable to hold IM + dividend in the short term [7]. (2) Stock Index Options - During the rebound, there were style differences. The trading volume of the options market increased by 2.78% compared with the previous day, and the 50ETF skewness index reached around 120. It is recommended to view it as an oscillatory market and choose to sell call options for hedging defense [2][7]. (3) Treasury Bond Futures - Long - term bond yields showed a V - shape. Most treasury bond futures contracts declined, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.08%, the 10 - year and 2 - year main contracts down 0.01%, and the 5 - year main contract remaining flat. The central bank's operations had a short - term negative impact on the bond market, but the fundamental environment is still favorable, and the bond market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish. Different trading strategies are recommended [3][8][9]. 2. Economic Calendar - The October SPGI manufacturing PMI in China was 50.6, lower than the forecast of 50.9. The October ISM manufacturing PMI in the US was 48.7, lower than the forecast of 49.5. The October ADP employment change in the US was 4.2 million, higher than the forecast of 2.5 million. Upcoming data include China's October trade balance in US dollars and the US November University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value [10]. 3. Important Information and News Tracking - Starting from November 10, 2025, at 13:01, China will stop implementing the additional tariffs on some US - originated imported goods and continue to suspend the 24% additional tariff rate on the US for one year, retaining the 10% rate. The central bank conducted 655 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 5577 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4922 billion yuan [10][11]. 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content.

Report Overview - The report is a weekly quantitative strategy report on stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, and commodity CTA strategies, covering market reviews, strategy performance tracking, and future strategy recommendations [4][56][71] 1. Stock Index Futures 1.1 Market Review - The market declined significantly last week. Electronics and power equipment contributed to the main decline in each index, while banks contributed to the main increase. The trading volume of each contract increased month - on - month, and the basis of each variety weakened significantly [4] 1.2 Basis Strategy - The basis weakened due to market sentiment. IH remained at a premium, IF at a shallow discount, and IC and IM at a deep discount. The current hedging demand in stock index futures is still mainly short - side. It is expected that the deep discount pattern of IC and IM will continue. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to build a long - short spread arbitrage position when the discount narrows driven by market sentiment. The roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract [4] 1.3 Arbitrage Strategy - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: Last week, the performance of each strategy was differentiated. The annualized basis rate factor lost 0.6%, the long - short spread strategy gained 0.4%, and the momentum factor gained 0.8% (6 - times leverage). The annualized basis rate factor turned to a long - short spread signal [5] - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: The market style shifted to large - cap stocks. The net value of the inter - variety time - series synthetic strategy lost 0.6% last week. The latest signal of the inter - variety strategy recommends holding an empty position in IC/IF and a 50% long - IM and short - IC position [5] 1.4 Timing Strategy - The daily timing strategy was generally profitable last week. The Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 gained 2.2%, lost 1.0%, gained 0.4%, and gained 2.0% respectively. The latest signal of the timing model is bullish on each index [6] 2. Treasury Bond Futures 2.1 This Week's Strategy Focus - **Basis and Inter - period**: The IRR of Treasury bond futures declined this week, and the inter - period spread fluctuated strongly. Since the continuous decline of IRR has realized the long - short spread profit to a certain extent, the subsequent long - short spread space is relatively limited, and it is expected to maintain a volatile operation [56] - **Interest Rate Timing and Hedging Signal**: The interest rate timing signal predicts a decline in interest rates, with strong bearish signals from the macro, production, inventory, and price factors. It is recommended to choose high - duration varieties for hedging [56] - **Futures Timing Strategy**: The multi - factor timing strategy signal is neutral. The main bullish factors are the basis factor and the high - frequency factor, while the main bearish factors are the spread factor and the volume - price factor [56] - **Futures Inter - variety Arbitrage Strategy**: The latest signal of the Treasury bond futures inter - variety arbitrage strategy TS - T is neutral, and the T - TL signal is also neutral [56] 3. Commodity CTA 3.1 Commodity Factor Performance - Most commodity varieties in the market declined last week, with only a few varieties such as gold, silver, and polysilicon rising. Among the commodity factors, the volume - price trend factors and value factors performed prominently, while the spot - futures basis factors and warehouse receipt factors declined by more than 0.5%. The overall commodity trend may still be highly volatile due to external macro - factor disturbances. Compared with short - cycle strategies, medium - and long - cycle trend - following CTA strategies may face certain risks [71] 3.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - Different strategies have different performance indicators such as annualized return, Sharpe ratio, Calmar ratio, and maximum drawdown. For example, the CWFT strategy has an annualized return of 9.3%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.58, and a maximum drawdown of - 8.81% [71]