1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals and inventory of copper still provide support, but attention should be paid to whether orders show signs of weakening in the off - season next week [1]. - The short - term fundamentals of aluminum are acceptable, but demand should be monitored. The calendar spread long position can be held if the absolute price drops [1]. - The idea of short - allocating zinc remains unchanged. Long the domestic and short the foreign zinc can be continued, and attention should be paid to the calendar spread short - position opportunity [4]. - Opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [7]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel are expected to be weak in the short term, with prices likely to fluctuate weakly [10][11]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 16,700 - 17,100 next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June [12]. - Tin can be cautiously held for long - allocation in the short term, and high - short opportunities after the maintenance period should be monitored in the long - term [14]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the long - term, and attention should be paid to the cost reduction caused by green - electricity subsidies and falling thermal - power prices [17]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - to - long term and continue to accumulate inventory next week, which will put upward pressure on prices [19][20]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 11 - 17, the spot premium of Shanghai copper increased by 205, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 234, and the LME inventory decreased by 1725 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Overseas, LME warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled, and the LME cash - 3m structure remained high. Domestically, the monthly spread widened slightly due to export expectations and downstream order flexibility. Global visible copper inventory is in a downward trend, and domestic inventory is not expected to accumulate rapidly. Consumption remains resilient [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 11 - 17, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 10, the domestic alumina price decreased by 9, the aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2100 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increased slightly, and imports were large from January to April. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in June, and there is still a supply - demand gap. Inventory depletion is gentle from June to July [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 11 - 17, zinc prices fluctuated and declined, the domestic TC remained unchanged, and the imported TC increased slightly. The domestic social inventory fluctuated, and the LME inventory decreased by 1350 [1][4]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increased in June, with a monthly increase of about 25,000 tons in smelting compared to May. Domestic demand weakened marginally, and overseas demand in Europe was weak. The inflection point of inventory accumulation is expected to occur in mid - June [4]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 11 - 17, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 900, the spot import return increased by 208.53, and the LME inventory increased by 1986 [7]. - **Market Situation**: Pure nickel production remained at a high level, and Russian nickel imports increased in April. Demand was weak overall, and overseas nickel - plate inventory remained stable while domestic inventory decreased slightly [7]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 11 - 17, the 304 cold - rolled and hot - rolled prices decreased by 50, and the waste stainless steel price decreased by 100. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly [10]. - **Market Situation**: Production increased seasonally in April and decreased passively in some steel mills from late May. Demand is mainly based on rigid needs, and the fundamentals are weak [10][11]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 11 - 17, lead prices rebounded from a low level, the spot import return decreased by 58.54, and the LME inventory increased by 23,975 [12]. - **Market Situation**: Supply - side scrap volume was weak, and demand - side battery inventory was high. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,700 - 17,100 next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 11 - 17, tin prices fluctuated widely, the spot import return increased by 894.60, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [14]. - **Market Situation**: Supply was affected by the uncertain resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State and domestic smelting cuts. Demand was weak, and the short - term supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [14]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 11 - 17, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 10, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 755 [17]. - **Market Situation**: The overall market operation rate increased slightly, and there is a pattern of double - reduction in short - term supply and demand. Future supply has potential pressure, and prices are expected to bottom - out in the long - term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 11 - 17, lithium carbonate prices rebounded from a low level, the SMM electric - carbon and industrial - carbon prices decreased by 50, and the number of registered warehouse receipts decreased by 330 [19]. - **Market Situation**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - to - long term, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate next week, putting pressure on prices [19][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals and inventory of copper provide support, but attention should be paid to whether orders show signs of weakness in the off - season next week. For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and the long spread position can be held if the absolute price drops. Zinc should be held short, and long the domestic and short the overseas position can be continued, and attention should be paid to the reverse spread opportunity between months. For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio. Stainless steel is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. Lead is expected to fluctuate between 16,700 and 17,100 in the next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June. Tin can be held long cautiously in the short term, and pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the maintenance period in the medium - long term. Industrial silicon has potential supply pressure in the future, and its price is expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers. Lithium carbonate is expected to continue to build up inventory, putting upward pressure on prices, and will be weak and volatile in the medium - long term [1][4][5][7][10][13][15] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 9th to June 13th, the spot price of Shanghai copper decreased by 45, the spread between scrap and refined copper decreased by 330, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 3,484. The LME inventory decreased by 2,375, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 4,500 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Overseas, LME warrants in the eurozone continued to be cancelled, and the LME cash - 3m structure remained high. Domestic smelters' export volume was slightly higher than expected. Global visible copper inventory is in a downward trend due to the US's siphoning effect, and domestic inventory is difficult to accumulate rapidly due to the opening of the export window. Consumption remains resilient, and the operating rates of copper rods and cables are stable compared to the previous period [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 9th to June 13th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 70, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 80, and the Guangdong aluminum ingot price increased by 20. The domestic alumina price decreased by 9. The social inventory decreased, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,375 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, and aluminum ingot imports were large from January to April. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in June, with aluminum product exports remaining stable and photovoltaic demand declining. There is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory will decline slowly from June to July [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 9th to June 13th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 70, the Tianjin zinc ingot price decreased by 40, and the Guangdong zinc ingot price decreased by 60. The social inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 1,025 [1][2][3] - **Market Analysis**: Zinc prices fluctuated and declined this week, affected by inventory build - up expectations and macro disturbances. Supply: Domestic TC remained unchanged this week, and imported TC rebounded slightly. In June, smelting output is expected to increase by about 25,000 tons compared to May, and the average monthly processing fee for ore is expected to increase by 150 yuan/ton. Demand: Domestic demand is weakening marginally, but there is still rigidity. Overseas demand in Europe is weak, but some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees [4] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 9th to June 13th, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 200, the spot import return decreased by 535.12, and the LME inventory decreased by 96 [5] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, pure nickel production remains at a high level, and Russian nickel imports increased in April. On the demand side, overall demand is weak, but the LME premium has strengthened slightly. Overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, and domestic inventory has decreased slightly. The plan to ban raw ore exports from the Philippines has been abolished [5] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 9th to June 13th, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, the 304 hot - rolled coil price decreased by 50, and the 201 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 50 [5] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, production increased seasonally in April, and some steel mills cut production passively since late May. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand. Costs: The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remained stable. Inventory: Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly, and exchange warrants decreased partially [5] Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 9th to June 13th, the spot premium decreased by 5, the spot import return increased by 39.20, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,775 [7] - **Market Analysis**: Lead prices rebounded from a low level this week. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak compared to the same period last year, the supply of waste batteries is tight, and the utilization rate of recycled lead smelters is about half. The supply of concentrates at home and abroad has changed from loose to tight, and TC is chaotic. On the demand side, battery inventory is high, and Tianneng's operating rate increased from 50% to 60% this week, driving spot transactions [7] Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 9th to June 13th, the spot import return decreased by 260.29, the LME inventory decreased by 105, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 80 [10] - **Market Analysis**: Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. On the supply side, the short - term resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar, requires negotiation, the processing fee for ore is low, and smelting profits are inverted. Some smelters in Jiangxi have cut production, and those in Yunnan are struggling to maintain. The war on the Myanmar - Thailand border has affected transportation, exacerbating the short - term supply shortage. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline, and the premium has decreased at high tin prices [10] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 9th to June 13th, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 110, the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 110, and the number of warrants decreased by 452 [13] - **Market Analysis**: The operating rates in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang have increased slightly. The overall operating rate of the market has increased slightly. The dry season in Sichuan has arrived, and some silicon plants have resumed production. The electricity price discount in Yunnan in the wet season is not clear, so the number of operating plants is small. In the short term, the pattern of supply and demand reduction is obvious, and the speculative demand is limited. The overall supply and demand of industrial silicon has reached a tight balance, but there is still potential supply pressure in the future [13] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 9th to June 13th, the SMM electric lithium carbonate price remained unchanged, the SMM industrial lithium carbonate price remained unchanged, the basis of the main contract increased by 500, and the number of registered warrants decreased by 265 [15] - **Market Analysis**: Lithium carbonate prices rebounded from a low level this week. The main contract is changing, and the spot premium has made the 07 contract price strong. High prices have attracted manufacturers to hedge and sell scattered orders, and the basis has weakened. Downstream demand has replenished inventory on a rigid basis. Some production lines in Sichuan have resumed production, and some projects in Ningde have increased production. The overall inventory has increased this week, and downstream only maintains a safe inventory. In the medium - long term, there are many expansion projects in the mine and lithium salt production capacity. If the operating rate of leading mining - smelting integrated enterprises does not decrease significantly, lithium carbonate prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper is expected to remain high and fluctuate due to the support from fundamentals and inventory, with low global visible inventory and resilient consumption [1]. - Aluminum has a short - term decent fundamental situation, but attention should be paid to demand. The monthly positive spread can be held if the absolute price drops [1]. - Zinc maintains the idea of short - allocation, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets and the monthly reverse spread can be held [4]. - For nickel, continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio, with a generally average short - term real - world fundamental situation [8]. - Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a generally weak fundamental situation [12]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16400 - 16700 next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June [16]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the medium term, with a co - existence of supply disturbances and consumption decline expectations [19]. - Industrial silicon may face large potential supply pressure in the future, and its price is expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the long - term [21]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to decline after oscillation, with high supply elasticity in the future and weak short - term downstream demand [23]. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by 5, the premium changed by - 113, and the LME inventory decreased by 2600 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas, LME cash - 3m structure steepened due to concentrated cancellation of LME warrants in the eurozone. Domestically, the export window is close to opening, and inventories are gradually accumulating. The global visible inventory of copper is on a downward trend, and consumption remains resilient [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 260, and the LME inventory decreased by 2000 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply has slightly increased, and demand is expected to seasonally weaken in June. There is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory reduction is gentle from June to July [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 550 [1][3]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased in June, demand elasticity is limited, domestic social inventory is slightly accumulating, and overseas LME inventory has a downward trend [4]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 850, and the LME inventory increased by 126 [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, overseas nickel plate inventory is stable, and domestic inventory has slightly decreased [8]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of scrap stainless steel decreased by 20 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increased seasonally in April and decreased passively in late May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has slightly increased [12]. Lead - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the LME inventory decreased by 4775 [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply side has issues such as weak scrap volume and tight raw materials. Demand side has high battery inventory and weak consumption. The price is expected to oscillate between 16400 - 16700 next week [16]. Tin - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the LME inventory remained unchanged [19]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is affected by the non - resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State and the war on the Myanmar - Thailand border. Demand is limited, and short - term supply and demand are both weak [19]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 105, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall market start - up has slightly increased, short - term supply and demand have both decreased, and future supply may face large pressure [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 150, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 454 [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is oscillating at a low level, downstream demand is weak, and the market is expected to decline after oscillation [23].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/11 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/04 130 945 105791 31933 -863.51 389.51 81.0 98.0 48.48 141350 75025 2025/06/05 80 805 105791 31687 -1366.56 279.74 79.0 98.0 93.15 138000 83300 2025/06/06 75 974 107404 32278 -1323.74 19.48 41.0 65.0 69.84 132400 77800 2025/06/09 70 944 107404 34242 -1215.58 217.42 43.0 66.0 95.78 122400 67800 2025/06/10 90 1043 107404 33746 -1195.14 161.13 43.0 66.0 84.10 120400 71725 变化 20 99 ...