Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term due to continued tight copper ore supply, relatively surplus refined copper supply under high domestic smelting start - up rate and downstream consumption off - season, and emotional support from strong precious metal prices [4][5] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise in the short - term despite large inventory accumulation during the domestic off - season and high delivery pressure on near - month futures contracts, as LME inventory remains at a relatively low level and there are still supports from the industry [6][7] - Lead prices may be supported in the short - term by the expected strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises, but the post - holiday start - up of downstream battery enterprises needs to be observed [9][10] - Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices based on relative valuation in the short - term due to macro - emotional disturbances, but will likely return to the weak industrial reality after the macro disturbances subside [11][12][13] - Tin prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation in the short - term, with a long - term upward trend, but there is pressure for a sharp rise under the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory [14][15] - Nickel prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation with the center gradually rising, with a long - term bullish and short - term bearish outlook [16][17] - The short - term supply - demand tight situation of domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue, and the upstream may have more say in the post - holiday spot game [20][21] - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the future price trend depends on whether the disturbances in the Guinea ore end can materialize and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated [23][24] - Stainless steel prices are still bullish, with a strong cost support at the bottom and the supply pressure expected to ease after the holiday [26][27] - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term due to cost support, improved demand expectations after the holiday, and supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [29][30] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: During the Spring Festival, the US Supreme Court ruled that US tariffs based on IEEPA were illegal, but new tariffs added uncertainty. Precious metal prices rebounded, and copper prices fluctuated. As of February 23, LME 3M copper rose slightly by 0.05% to $12,901/ton compared with before the Spring Festival. Overseas copper inventories continued to increase, and the discount of LME near - month contracts narrowed. Satellite data showed that global smelting activities in January were at the lowest level for the same period in a decade. Domestically, the operating rate of primary processing enterprises weakened before the holiday, and inventories increased seasonally but less than the seasonal average [4] - **Strategy**: Short - term copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile. The reference range for the main SHFE copper contract today is 99,500 - 101,500 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M copper is $12,800 - 13,050/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: During the Spring Festival, geopolitical risks from US - Iran negotiations remained. The US Supreme Court ruled that tariffs based on IEEPA were illegal, and the White House imposed a 15% temporary tariff on global goods. Aluminum prices fluctuated and recovered. As of February 23, LME 3M aluminum rose 0.9% to $3,091/ton. Before the holiday, domestic aluminum futures positions decreased, and warehouse receipts increased. LME inventory decreased by 0.2 to 47.4 tons, and the discount of Cash/3M narrowed [6] - **Strategy**: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to rise. The reference range for the main SHFE aluminum contract today is 23,000 - 23,600 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M aluminum is $3,050 - 3,120/ton [7] Lead - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the domestic SHFE lead index fell 1.39% to 16,700 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the LME 3M lead fell 0.51% to $1,966.5/ton. LME lead inventory increased by 5.42 tons to 28.71 tons. Domestic lead inventory also increased [9] - **Strategy**: The expected strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support lead prices in the short - term, but the post - holiday start - up of downstream battery enterprises needs to be observed [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the domestic SHFE zinc index fell 5.53% to 24,255 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the LME 3M zinc rose 0.76% to $3,378/ton. LME zinc inventory was 10.17 tons, and domestic zinc inventory increased [11] - **Strategy**: Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices in the short - term due to macro - emotional disturbances but will return to the weak industrial reality later [12][13] Tin - **Market Information**: On February 13, tin prices fell sharply. The supply was difficult to increase significantly in the short - term due to the high - level stability of the operating rate in Yunnan and low production in Jiangxi. The demand was still weak as downstream enterprises were cautious [14] - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME tin is $46,000 - 50,000/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [15] Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 13, nickel prices fell sharply. The spot market premiums were stable, and raw material prices were also stable. During the Spring Festival, LME 3M nickel rose 1.1% to $17,435/ton, and LME inventory was basically unchanged [16] - **Strategy**: Nickel prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation with the center gradually rising. It is recommended to buy low and sell high. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M nickel is $16,000 - 20,000/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On February 14, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index rose 5.11% week - on - week. The LC2605 contract price rose 2.15% on February 13, and the Australian import SC6 lithium concentrate price rose 2.82% week - on - week [20] - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand tight situation of domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue. The reference range for the main contract on the GZFE is 139,000 - 164,000 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 13, the alumina index rose 1.1% to 2,843 yuan/ton. The trading position decreased, and the basis and overseas prices were stable. The futures inventory increased [23] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The reference range for the main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On February 13, the stainless steel main contract fell 0.79% to 13,860 yuan/ton. Spot prices were stable, raw material prices were unchanged, and futures and social inventories increased [26] - **Strategy**: Stainless steel prices are still bullish. The reference range for the main contract is 13,700 - 14,000 yuan/ton [27] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the casting aluminum alloy price weakened. The trading volume increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The inventory increased [29] - **Strategy**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [30]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no mention of the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices in the medium - term, as copper fundamentals feature limited supply and increasing demand. In the short - to - medium - term, the stabilization of copper prices depends on the stabilization of precious metals, with support levels at 97,000 and 99,000 for Shanghai copper [1]. - For aluminum, after the price increase, there is an unexpected increase in supply and weak terminal demand. One should wait for the supply - demand negative factors to materialize before going long. If the Iran situation deteriorates, aluminum prices may rise [1]. - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are average, but due to limited long - term capital expenditure and about 100,000 - ton supply disruptions from Iran, the market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - Nickel's short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak overall demand, and domestic continuous warehousing while LME inventory remains stable. The short - term sentiment of the non - ferrous metals sector is dominant [5]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals are weak, with a slight decline in steel mill production, downstream entering the off - season, and seasonal inventory accumulation. The news of Indonesia's quota continues to cause disruptions, and the short - term sentiment of the non - ferrous metals sector is dominant [9]. - For lead, the supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and there is an expectation of looser supply. It is recommended to try short positions at high prices in the short term, as the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12][13]. - Tin prices are affected by precious metals and the overall non - ferrous metals market, showing a downward trend. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long term, if there is a macro turning point, the price may decline significantly in the second half of the year [14][15]. - Industrial silicon's short - term supply and demand are close to balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [19]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term supply and demand are strong, and it maintains a de - stocking trend in the off - season. If the inventory in the intermediate links further decreases to a low level, there is a large space for positive arbitrage between months [21]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Weekly copper prices fluctuated significantly. The US's ability to siphon inventory is disappearing, causing concerns about high - inventory delivery to LME or outflow from the US. However, global consumption is good, and there is strong rigid demand for copper. The price fell below 100,000 to around 99,000, with obvious downstream point - pricing [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum price dropped, with the spot premium strengthening and weak demand. After the price increase, there was an unexpected increase in supply and weak terminal demand [1]. Zinc - On the supply side, domestic and imported TC declined rapidly, and it is expected to ease after the resumption of northern mines after the Spring Festival. In November, Huoshaoyun zinc ingots were put into production, and other smelters had limited production increases. In February, production is expected to decrease by 50,000 - 60,000 tons month - on - month. On the demand side, domestic demand weakened seasonally, and overseas demand in Europe was average. The export window is currently closed. Under the high price, downstream procurement is point - pricing at low points, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [2]. Nickel - On the supply side, pure nickel production decreased slightly. On the demand side, it was weak overall. On the inventory side, domestic warehousing continued, and LME inventory remained stable. The short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, and the short - term sentiment of the non - ferrous metals sector is dominant [5]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, steel mill production decreased slightly. On the demand side, downstream entered the off - season. In terms of cost, nickel iron prices declined slightly, and chrome iron prices increased slightly. In terms of inventory, there was seasonal inventory accumulation, and warehouse receipts increased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and the news of Indonesia's quota continues to cause disruptions [9]. Lead - On the supply side, primary lead production was driven by profit, and production decreased seasonally. Secondary lead production was affected by environmental protection and losses. On the demand side, battery production decreased, and demand continued to weaken. The supply - demand contradiction was alleviated, and there was an expectation of looser supply. There was significant inventory accumulation in the fourth week [12][13]. Tin - Tin prices fluctuated downward. On the supply side, there are differences in the expectation of Wa State's resumption in the first quarter, and Indonesia's quota for 2026 is 60,000 tons. On the demand side, there are differences in the downstream restocking willingness, and overseas consumption is flat. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas LME inventory increased [14][15]. Industrial Silicon - Southwest production enterprises are mostly shut down, and a large factory in Xinjiang reduced production. The monthly supply is shrinking, and in February, both supply and demand are expected to decrease, maintaining a de - stocking trend. In the short term, supply and demand are close to balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The price and positions of lithium carbonate continued to decline. On the raw material side, lithium ore prices followed the decline, and mine sales were limited. On the lithium salt side, most upstream producers are reluctant to sell, and downstream positive electrode enterprises maintain low - level procurement. In the short term, supply and demand are strong, and it maintains a de - stocking trend in the off - season [21].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For copper, short - term price may enter a high - level oscillation stage, and long - term demand has positive support with a long - term bullish trend in bands [45][46][47] - For polysilicon, short - term sentiment is pessimistic and price may continue to seek the bottom, and long - term attention should be paid to production adjustment, inventory digestion and regulatory policy impact [49][50] - For alumina and electrolytic aluminum, short - term alumina will oscillate weakly at a low level, and Shanghai aluminum will oscillate at a high level; long - term Shanghai aluminum will oscillate strongly under a loose monetary environment, and alumina will oscillate widely at a low level without large - scale production cuts [51][52] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: Futures (CU2603) rose from 92780 to 101580 (9.48% weekly increase), and spot average price rose from 99290 to 100590 (1.31% weekly increase) [3] - Aluminum: Futures (AL2603) rose from 22950 to 24385 (6.25% weekly increase), and spot average price rose from 22450 to 24020 (6.99% weekly increase) [3] - Zinc: Futures (ZN2603) rose from 23310 to 24015 (3.02% weekly increase), and spot average price rose from 23340 to 24040 (3.00% weekly increase) [3] - Lead: Futures (PB2603) rose from 17360 to 17395 (0.20% weekly increase), and spot average price rose from 17125 to 17175 (0.29% weekly increase) [3] - Nickel: Futures (NI2602) rose from 132850 to 139090 (4.70% weekly increase), and spot average price rose from 137550 to 141900 (3.16% weekly increase) [3] - Alumina: Futures (AO2605) rose from 2778 to 2843 (2.34% weekly increase), and spot price fell from 2720 to 2710 (- 0.37% weekly decrease) [3] - Industrial silicon: Futures (SI2605) fell from 8860 to 8715 (- 1.64% weekly decrease), and spot average price fell from 9650 to 9550 (- 1.04% weekly decrease) [3] - Lithium carbonate: Futures (LC2605) rose from 121580 to 143420 (17.96% weekly increase), and spot average price rose from 121500 to 140000 (15.23% weekly increase) [3] - Polysilicon: Futures (PS2605) rose from 53150 to 57190 (7.60% weekly increase), and spot price rose from 53000 to 55000 (3.77% weekly increase) [3] 3.2 Copper Inventory Trends of Three Major Exchanges - LME copper inventory decreased from 14.95 million tons to 14.11 million tons (- 5.62% weekly decrease) [12] - COMEX copper inventory increased from 49.07 million tons to 51.5 million tons (4.95% weekly increase) [12] - SHEF copper inventory increased from 14.53 million tons to 18.05 million tons (24.23% weekly increase) [12] 3.3 Copper Concentrate Processing Fees - As of January 8, 2026, copper concentrate spot TC was - 44.76 dollars/ton, remaining unchanged weekly and at a historical low; RC was - 4.48 cents/pound, with a tight supply expectation at the mine end [19] 3.4 Lithium Spodumene Concentrate Index - As of January 9, 2026, the latest quote was 1880 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 332 dollars/ton [22] 3.5 Aluminum Raw Material Supply - As of January 9, bauxite port inventory was 25.096 billion tons, an increase of 88.6 million tons from last week; as of December end, alumina plant bauxite inventory was 24.66 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 50 million tons (2.07%) and a year - on - year increase of 275 million tons (12.55%), at a historical high [25] 3.6 Alumina Supply - As of January 9, alumina enterprise weekly operating rate was 85.74%, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 percentage points; weekly output was 1.851 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 23 million tons; total inventory was 5.318 billion tons, an increase of 76 million tons from last week [28] 3.7 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - As of November end, China's primary aluminum output was 3.647 billion tons, imports were 1.47 million tons, and inventory was 5.95 million tons; as of December end, the electrolytic aluminum industry operating rate was 98.3%, remaining at a high level [31] 3.8 Aluminum Inventory Trends of Three Major Exchanges - As of January 9, LME aluminum inventory was 4.998 billion tons, a decrease of 9500 tons from last Friday; SHFE aluminum inventory was 1.438 billion tons, an increase of 1.4 million tons from last Friday; COMEX aluminum inventory was 6338 tons, an increase of 75 tons from last week, and the overall global inventory continued to accumulate [34][35] 3.9 Non - ferrous Metal Demand - In November 2025, automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. From January to November, cumulative production and sales were 31.231 million and 31.127 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 11.4% [39] - In November 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 20% and 20.6%. The proportion of new - car sales in total automobile sales reached 53.2%, exceeding 50% for the first time in a single month. From January to November, cumulative sales were 14.78 million, with a year - on - year increase of 31.2%, and the proportion increased to 47.5% [39] - From January to November, real - estate construction area was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%; new construction area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%; completion area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0% [41] - As of November end, the total installed power - generation capacity in China was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. Among them, solar - power installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; wind - power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4%. From January to November, the average utilization hours of power - generation equipment were 2858 hours, a decrease of 289 hours compared with the same period last year [43] 3.10 Strategy Recommendations - **Copper**: Short - term high - level oscillation, focus on overseas mine strikes and downstream order recovery; long - term demand has positive support [45][46][47] - **Polysilicon**: Short - term price may continue to seek the bottom, long - term focus on production adjustment, inventory digestion and regulatory policy impact [49][50] - **Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum**: Short - term alumina oscillates weakly at a low level, Shanghai aluminum oscillates at a high level; long - term Shanghai aluminum oscillates strongly under a loose monetary environment, alumina oscillates widely at a low level without large - scale production cuts [51][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals and inventory of copper still provide support, but attention should be paid to whether orders show signs of weakening in the off - season next week [1]. - The short - term fundamentals of aluminum are acceptable, but demand should be monitored. The calendar spread long position can be held if the absolute price drops [1]. - The idea of short - allocating zinc remains unchanged. Long the domestic and short the foreign zinc can be continued, and attention should be paid to the calendar spread short - position opportunity [4]. - Opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [7]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel are expected to be weak in the short term, with prices likely to fluctuate weakly [10][11]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 16,700 - 17,100 next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June [12]. - Tin can be cautiously held for long - allocation in the short term, and high - short opportunities after the maintenance period should be monitored in the long - term [14]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the long - term, and attention should be paid to the cost reduction caused by green - electricity subsidies and falling thermal - power prices [17]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - to - long term and continue to accumulate inventory next week, which will put upward pressure on prices [19][20]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 11 - 17, the spot premium of Shanghai copper increased by 205, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 234, and the LME inventory decreased by 1725 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Overseas, LME warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled, and the LME cash - 3m structure remained high. Domestically, the monthly spread widened slightly due to export expectations and downstream order flexibility. Global visible copper inventory is in a downward trend, and domestic inventory is not expected to accumulate rapidly. Consumption remains resilient [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 11 - 17, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 10, the domestic alumina price decreased by 9, the aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2100 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increased slightly, and imports were large from January to April. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in June, and there is still a supply - demand gap. Inventory depletion is gentle from June to July [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 11 - 17, zinc prices fluctuated and declined, the domestic TC remained unchanged, and the imported TC increased slightly. The domestic social inventory fluctuated, and the LME inventory decreased by 1350 [1][4]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increased in June, with a monthly increase of about 25,000 tons in smelting compared to May. Domestic demand weakened marginally, and overseas demand in Europe was weak. The inflection point of inventory accumulation is expected to occur in mid - June [4]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 11 - 17, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 900, the spot import return increased by 208.53, and the LME inventory increased by 1986 [7]. - **Market Situation**: Pure nickel production remained at a high level, and Russian nickel imports increased in April. Demand was weak overall, and overseas nickel - plate inventory remained stable while domestic inventory decreased slightly [7]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 11 - 17, the 304 cold - rolled and hot - rolled prices decreased by 50, and the waste stainless steel price decreased by 100. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly [10]. - **Market Situation**: Production increased seasonally in April and decreased passively in some steel mills from late May. Demand is mainly based on rigid needs, and the fundamentals are weak [10][11]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 11 - 17, lead prices rebounded from a low level, the spot import return decreased by 58.54, and the LME inventory increased by 23,975 [12]. - **Market Situation**: Supply - side scrap volume was weak, and demand - side battery inventory was high. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,700 - 17,100 next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 11 - 17, tin prices fluctuated widely, the spot import return increased by 894.60, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [14]. - **Market Situation**: Supply was affected by the uncertain resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State and domestic smelting cuts. Demand was weak, and the short - term supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [14]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 11 - 17, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 10, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 755 [17]. - **Market Situation**: The overall market operation rate increased slightly, and there is a pattern of double - reduction in short - term supply and demand. Future supply has potential pressure, and prices are expected to bottom - out in the long - term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 11 - 17, lithium carbonate prices rebounded from a low level, the SMM electric - carbon and industrial - carbon prices decreased by 50, and the number of registered warehouse receipts decreased by 330 [19]. - **Market Situation**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - to - long term, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate next week, putting pressure on prices [19][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals and inventory of copper provide support, but attention should be paid to whether orders show signs of weakness in the off - season next week. For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and the long spread position can be held if the absolute price drops. Zinc should be held short, and long the domestic and short the overseas position can be continued, and attention should be paid to the reverse spread opportunity between months. For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio. Stainless steel is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. Lead is expected to fluctuate between 16,700 and 17,100 in the next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June. Tin can be held long cautiously in the short term, and pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the maintenance period in the medium - long term. Industrial silicon has potential supply pressure in the future, and its price is expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers. Lithium carbonate is expected to continue to build up inventory, putting upward pressure on prices, and will be weak and volatile in the medium - long term [1][4][5][7][10][13][15] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 9th to June 13th, the spot price of Shanghai copper decreased by 45, the spread between scrap and refined copper decreased by 330, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 3,484. The LME inventory decreased by 2,375, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 4,500 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Overseas, LME warrants in the eurozone continued to be cancelled, and the LME cash - 3m structure remained high. Domestic smelters' export volume was slightly higher than expected. Global visible copper inventory is in a downward trend due to the US's siphoning effect, and domestic inventory is difficult to accumulate rapidly due to the opening of the export window. Consumption remains resilient, and the operating rates of copper rods and cables are stable compared to the previous period [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 9th to June 13th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 70, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 80, and the Guangdong aluminum ingot price increased by 20. The domestic alumina price decreased by 9. The social inventory decreased, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,375 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, and aluminum ingot imports were large from January to April. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in June, with aluminum product exports remaining stable and photovoltaic demand declining. There is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory will decline slowly from June to July [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 9th to June 13th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 70, the Tianjin zinc ingot price decreased by 40, and the Guangdong zinc ingot price decreased by 60. The social inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 1,025 [1][2][3] - **Market Analysis**: Zinc prices fluctuated and declined this week, affected by inventory build - up expectations and macro disturbances. Supply: Domestic TC remained unchanged this week, and imported TC rebounded slightly. In June, smelting output is expected to increase by about 25,000 tons compared to May, and the average monthly processing fee for ore is expected to increase by 150 yuan/ton. Demand: Domestic demand is weakening marginally, but there is still rigidity. Overseas demand in Europe is weak, but some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees [4] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 9th to June 13th, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 200, the spot import return decreased by 535.12, and the LME inventory decreased by 96 [5] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, pure nickel production remains at a high level, and Russian nickel imports increased in April. On the demand side, overall demand is weak, but the LME premium has strengthened slightly. Overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, and domestic inventory has decreased slightly. The plan to ban raw ore exports from the Philippines has been abolished [5] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 9th to June 13th, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, the 304 hot - rolled coil price decreased by 50, and the 201 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 50 [5] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, production increased seasonally in April, and some steel mills cut production passively since late May. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand. Costs: The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remained stable. Inventory: Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly, and exchange warrants decreased partially [5] Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 9th to June 13th, the spot premium decreased by 5, the spot import return increased by 39.20, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,775 [7] - **Market Analysis**: Lead prices rebounded from a low level this week. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak compared to the same period last year, the supply of waste batteries is tight, and the utilization rate of recycled lead smelters is about half. The supply of concentrates at home and abroad has changed from loose to tight, and TC is chaotic. On the demand side, battery inventory is high, and Tianneng's operating rate increased from 50% to 60% this week, driving spot transactions [7] Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 9th to June 13th, the spot import return decreased by 260.29, the LME inventory decreased by 105, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 80 [10] - **Market Analysis**: Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. On the supply side, the short - term resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar, requires negotiation, the processing fee for ore is low, and smelting profits are inverted. Some smelters in Jiangxi have cut production, and those in Yunnan are struggling to maintain. The war on the Myanmar - Thailand border has affected transportation, exacerbating the short - term supply shortage. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline, and the premium has decreased at high tin prices [10] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 9th to June 13th, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 110, the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 110, and the number of warrants decreased by 452 [13] - **Market Analysis**: The operating rates in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang have increased slightly. The overall operating rate of the market has increased slightly. The dry season in Sichuan has arrived, and some silicon plants have resumed production. The electricity price discount in Yunnan in the wet season is not clear, so the number of operating plants is small. In the short term, the pattern of supply and demand reduction is obvious, and the speculative demand is limited. The overall supply and demand of industrial silicon has reached a tight balance, but there is still potential supply pressure in the future [13] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 9th to June 13th, the SMM electric lithium carbonate price remained unchanged, the SMM industrial lithium carbonate price remained unchanged, the basis of the main contract increased by 500, and the number of registered warrants decreased by 265 [15] - **Market Analysis**: Lithium carbonate prices rebounded from a low level this week. The main contract is changing, and the spot premium has made the 07 contract price strong. High prices have attracted manufacturers to hedge and sell scattered orders, and the basis has weakened. Downstream demand has replenished inventory on a rigid basis. Some production lines in Sichuan have resumed production, and some projects in Ningde have increased production. The overall inventory has increased this week, and downstream only maintains a safe inventory. In the medium - long term, there are many expansion projects in the mine and lithium salt production capacity. If the operating rate of leading mining - smelting integrated enterprises does not decrease significantly, lithium carbonate prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [15]