Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term due to continued tight copper ore supply, relatively surplus refined copper supply under high domestic smelting start - up rate and downstream consumption off - season, and emotional support from strong precious metal prices [4][5] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise in the short - term despite large inventory accumulation during the domestic off - season and high delivery pressure on near - month futures contracts, as LME inventory remains at a relatively low level and there are still supports from the industry [6][7] - Lead prices may be supported in the short - term by the expected strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises, but the post - holiday start - up of downstream battery enterprises needs to be observed [9][10] - Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices based on relative valuation in the short - term due to macro - emotional disturbances, but will likely return to the weak industrial reality after the macro disturbances subside [11][12][13] - Tin prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation in the short - term, with a long - term upward trend, but there is pressure for a sharp rise under the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory [14][15] - Nickel prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation with the center gradually rising, with a long - term bullish and short - term bearish outlook [16][17] - The short - term supply - demand tight situation of domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue, and the upstream may have more say in the post - holiday spot game [20][21] - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the future price trend depends on whether the disturbances in the Guinea ore end can materialize and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated [23][24] - Stainless steel prices are still bullish, with a strong cost support at the bottom and the supply pressure expected to ease after the holiday [26][27] - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term due to cost support, improved demand expectations after the holiday, and supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [29][30] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: During the Spring Festival, the US Supreme Court ruled that US tariffs based on IEEPA were illegal, but new tariffs added uncertainty. Precious metal prices rebounded, and copper prices fluctuated. As of February 23, LME 3M copper rose slightly by 0.05% to $12,901/ton compared with before the Spring Festival. Overseas copper inventories continued to increase, and the discount of LME near - month contracts narrowed. Satellite data showed that global smelting activities in January were at the lowest level for the same period in a decade. Domestically, the operating rate of primary processing enterprises weakened before the holiday, and inventories increased seasonally but less than the seasonal average [4] - **Strategy**: Short - term copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile. The reference range for the main SHFE copper contract today is 99,500 - 101,500 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M copper is $12,800 - 13,050/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: During the Spring Festival, geopolitical risks from US - Iran negotiations remained. The US Supreme Court ruled that tariffs based on IEEPA were illegal, and the White House imposed a 15% temporary tariff on global goods. Aluminum prices fluctuated and recovered. As of February 23, LME 3M aluminum rose 0.9% to $3,091/ton. Before the holiday, domestic aluminum futures positions decreased, and warehouse receipts increased. LME inventory decreased by 0.2 to 47.4 tons, and the discount of Cash/3M narrowed [6] - **Strategy**: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to rise. The reference range for the main SHFE aluminum contract today is 23,000 - 23,600 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M aluminum is $3,050 - 3,120/ton [7] Lead - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the domestic SHFE lead index fell 1.39% to 16,700 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the LME 3M lead fell 0.51% to $1,966.5/ton. LME lead inventory increased by 5.42 tons to 28.71 tons. Domestic lead inventory also increased [9] - **Strategy**: The expected strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support lead prices in the short - term, but the post - holiday start - up of downstream battery enterprises needs to be observed [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the domestic SHFE zinc index fell 5.53% to 24,255 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the LME 3M zinc rose 0.76% to $3,378/ton. LME zinc inventory was 10.17 tons, and domestic zinc inventory increased [11] - **Strategy**: Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices in the short - term due to macro - emotional disturbances but will return to the weak industrial reality later [12][13] Tin - **Market Information**: On February 13, tin prices fell sharply. The supply was difficult to increase significantly in the short - term due to the high - level stability of the operating rate in Yunnan and low production in Jiangxi. The demand was still weak as downstream enterprises were cautious [14] - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME tin is $46,000 - 50,000/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [15] Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 13, nickel prices fell sharply. The spot market premiums were stable, and raw material prices were also stable. During the Spring Festival, LME 3M nickel rose 1.1% to $17,435/ton, and LME inventory was basically unchanged [16] - **Strategy**: Nickel prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile operation with the center gradually rising. It is recommended to buy low and sell high. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M nickel is $16,000 - 20,000/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On February 14, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index rose 5.11% week - on - week. The LC2605 contract price rose 2.15% on February 13, and the Australian import SC6 lithium concentrate price rose 2.82% week - on - week [20] - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand tight situation of domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue. The reference range for the main contract on the GZFE is 139,000 - 164,000 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 13, the alumina index rose 1.1% to 2,843 yuan/ton. The trading position decreased, and the basis and overseas prices were stable. The futures inventory increased [23] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The reference range for the main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On February 13, the stainless steel main contract fell 0.79% to 13,860 yuan/ton. Spot prices were stable, raw material prices were unchanged, and futures and social inventories increased [26] - **Strategy**: Stainless steel prices are still bullish. The reference range for the main contract is 13,700 - 14,000 yuan/ton [27] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Before the Spring Festival, the casting aluminum alloy price weakened. The trading volume increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The inventory increased [29] - **Strategy**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [30]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For copper, short - term price may enter a high - level oscillation stage, and long - term demand has positive support with a long - term bullish trend in bands [45][46][47] - For polysilicon, short - term sentiment is pessimistic and price may continue to seek the bottom, and long - term attention should be paid to production adjustment, inventory digestion and regulatory policy impact [49][50] - For alumina and electrolytic aluminum, short - term alumina will oscillate weakly at a low level, and Shanghai aluminum will oscillate at a high level; long - term Shanghai aluminum will oscillate strongly under a loose monetary environment, and alumina will oscillate widely at a low level without large - scale production cuts [51][52] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: Futures (CU2603) rose from 92780 to 101580 (9.48% weekly increase), and spot average price rose from 99290 to 100590 (1.31% weekly increase) [3] - Aluminum: Futures (AL2603) rose from 22950 to 24385 (6.25% weekly increase), and spot average price rose from 22450 to 24020 (6.99% weekly increase) [3] - Zinc: Futures (ZN2603) rose from 23310 to 24015 (3.02% weekly increase), and spot average price rose from 23340 to 24040 (3.00% weekly increase) [3] - Lead: Futures (PB2603) rose from 17360 to 17395 (0.20% weekly increase), and spot average price rose from 17125 to 17175 (0.29% weekly increase) [3] - Nickel: Futures (NI2602) rose from 132850 to 139090 (4.70% weekly increase), and spot average price rose from 137550 to 141900 (3.16% weekly increase) [3] - Alumina: Futures (AO2605) rose from 2778 to 2843 (2.34% weekly increase), and spot price fell from 2720 to 2710 (- 0.37% weekly decrease) [3] - Industrial silicon: Futures (SI2605) fell from 8860 to 8715 (- 1.64% weekly decrease), and spot average price fell from 9650 to 9550 (- 1.04% weekly decrease) [3] - Lithium carbonate: Futures (LC2605) rose from 121580 to 143420 (17.96% weekly increase), and spot average price rose from 121500 to 140000 (15.23% weekly increase) [3] - Polysilicon: Futures (PS2605) rose from 53150 to 57190 (7.60% weekly increase), and spot price rose from 53000 to 55000 (3.77% weekly increase) [3] 3.2 Copper Inventory Trends of Three Major Exchanges - LME copper inventory decreased from 14.95 million tons to 14.11 million tons (- 5.62% weekly decrease) [12] - COMEX copper inventory increased from 49.07 million tons to 51.5 million tons (4.95% weekly increase) [12] - SHEF copper inventory increased from 14.53 million tons to 18.05 million tons (24.23% weekly increase) [12] 3.3 Copper Concentrate Processing Fees - As of January 8, 2026, copper concentrate spot TC was - 44.76 dollars/ton, remaining unchanged weekly and at a historical low; RC was - 4.48 cents/pound, with a tight supply expectation at the mine end [19] 3.4 Lithium Spodumene Concentrate Index - As of January 9, 2026, the latest quote was 1880 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 332 dollars/ton [22] 3.5 Aluminum Raw Material Supply - As of January 9, bauxite port inventory was 25.096 billion tons, an increase of 88.6 million tons from last week; as of December end, alumina plant bauxite inventory was 24.66 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 50 million tons (2.07%) and a year - on - year increase of 275 million tons (12.55%), at a historical high [25] 3.6 Alumina Supply - As of January 9, alumina enterprise weekly operating rate was 85.74%, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 percentage points; weekly output was 1.851 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 23 million tons; total inventory was 5.318 billion tons, an increase of 76 million tons from last week [28] 3.7 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - As of November end, China's primary aluminum output was 3.647 billion tons, imports were 1.47 million tons, and inventory was 5.95 million tons; as of December end, the electrolytic aluminum industry operating rate was 98.3%, remaining at a high level [31] 3.8 Aluminum Inventory Trends of Three Major Exchanges - As of January 9, LME aluminum inventory was 4.998 billion tons, a decrease of 9500 tons from last Friday; SHFE aluminum inventory was 1.438 billion tons, an increase of 1.4 million tons from last Friday; COMEX aluminum inventory was 6338 tons, an increase of 75 tons from last week, and the overall global inventory continued to accumulate [34][35] 3.9 Non - ferrous Metal Demand - In November 2025, automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. From January to November, cumulative production and sales were 31.231 million and 31.127 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 11.4% [39] - In November 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 20% and 20.6%. The proportion of new - car sales in total automobile sales reached 53.2%, exceeding 50% for the first time in a single month. From January to November, cumulative sales were 14.78 million, with a year - on - year increase of 31.2%, and the proportion increased to 47.5% [39] - From January to November, real - estate construction area was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%; new construction area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%; completion area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0% [41] - As of November end, the total installed power - generation capacity in China was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. Among them, solar - power installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; wind - power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4%. From January to November, the average utilization hours of power - generation equipment were 2858 hours, a decrease of 289 hours compared with the same period last year [43] 3.10 Strategy Recommendations - **Copper**: Short - term high - level oscillation, focus on overseas mine strikes and downstream order recovery; long - term demand has positive support [45][46][47] - **Polysilicon**: Short - term price may continue to seek the bottom, long - term focus on production adjustment, inventory digestion and regulatory policy impact [49][50] - **Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum**: Short - term alumina oscillates weakly at a low level, Shanghai aluminum oscillates at a high level; long - term Shanghai aluminum oscillates strongly under a loose monetary environment, alumina oscillates widely at a low level without large - scale production cuts [51][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper is expected to remain high and fluctuate due to the support from fundamentals and inventory, with low global visible inventory and resilient consumption [1]. - Aluminum has a short - term decent fundamental situation, but attention should be paid to demand. The monthly positive spread can be held if the absolute price drops [1]. - Zinc maintains the idea of short - allocation, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets and the monthly reverse spread can be held [4]. - For nickel, continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio, with a generally average short - term real - world fundamental situation [8]. - Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a generally weak fundamental situation [12]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16400 - 16700 next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June [16]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the medium term, with a co - existence of supply disturbances and consumption decline expectations [19]. - Industrial silicon may face large potential supply pressure in the future, and its price is expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the long - term [21]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to decline after oscillation, with high supply elasticity in the future and weak short - term downstream demand [23]. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by 5, the premium changed by - 113, and the LME inventory decreased by 2600 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas, LME cash - 3m structure steepened due to concentrated cancellation of LME warrants in the eurozone. Domestically, the export window is close to opening, and inventories are gradually accumulating. The global visible inventory of copper is on a downward trend, and consumption remains resilient [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 260, and the LME inventory decreased by 2000 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply has slightly increased, and demand is expected to seasonally weaken in June. There is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory reduction is gentle from June to July [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 550 [1][3]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased in June, demand elasticity is limited, domestic social inventory is slightly accumulating, and overseas LME inventory has a downward trend [4]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 850, and the LME inventory increased by 126 [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, overseas nickel plate inventory is stable, and domestic inventory has slightly decreased [8]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of scrap stainless steel decreased by 20 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increased seasonally in April and decreased passively in late May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has slightly increased [12]. Lead - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the LME inventory decreased by 4775 [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply side has issues such as weak scrap volume and tight raw materials. Demand side has high battery inventory and weak consumption. The price is expected to oscillate between 16400 - 16700 next week [16]. Tin - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the LME inventory remained unchanged [19]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is affected by the non - resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State and the war on the Myanmar - Thailand border. Demand is limited, and short - term supply and demand are both weak [19]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 105, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall market start - up has slightly increased, short - term supply and demand have both decreased, and future supply may face large pressure [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 150, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 454 [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is oscillating at a low level, downstream demand is weak, and the market is expected to decline after oscillation [23].