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矿业ETF(561330)盘中涨超2.1%,铜铝供应矛盾或支撑金属价格
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-23 06:25
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that copper mine supply disruptions are ongoing, with a decline in supply growth, while copper smelting capacity is expected to increase by over 2 million tons in 2025 and more than 1 million tons in 2026, leading to a significant reduction in domestic copper smelting and supporting higher copper prices [1] - In the aluminum sector, expectations of overseas production cuts are strengthening, with South Africa's Mozal Aluminum announcing maintenance shutdowns in 2026, while domestic aluminum ingots continue to deplete, resulting in a global aluminum inventory of only 1.21 million tons, indicating a tight supply-demand balance that may support aluminum prices in the next 2-3 years [1] - In the precious metals market, the credibility of U.S. inflation and employment data is questioned, leading to fluctuations in precious metal prices; however, gold's safe-haven demand and central bank purchases are expected to provide upward momentum, while silver prices are influenced by industrial demand surges and low inventory levels, making silver prices more elastic [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in the mining and processing of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals, reflecting the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining sector [1] - This index exhibits strong cyclicality and sensitivity to commodity prices, effectively representing market trends in the non-ferrous metal mining sector [1]