营运方面，该行预期明年首季海底捞的翻台率将有正面势头，料经营利润率压力将于今年下半年逐步纾 缓，并于明年进一步恢复，受惠于公司在今年完成店铺改造，并将于明年第一季终止部分亏损试点项 目。 花旗发表研究报告指，中央经济工作会议强调计划清理消费领域不合理限制措施，释放服务消费潜力， 预期政府将在2026年放宽部分反奢华消费措施，而休闲餐饮企业如海底捞，较快餐企业更能受惠。 该行指，海底捞仍然是其在中国餐饮板块的首选，明年将更看好休闲餐饮企业而非快餐公司；该行同时 对海底捞开启30天正面催化观察，现予目标价18.5港元及"买入"评级。 ...

Core Insights - The service trade fair is a significant platform for the opening, innovation, and cooperation in service trade, and it plays an important role in expanding service consumption [1] - China's consumption pattern is gradually shifting towards a balance between goods and service consumption [1] Group 1: Market Growth - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's consumption market remains the second largest globally, with an average annual growth of 5.5% in social retail sales over the past four years, expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [1] - Service consumption is growing faster than goods consumption, becoming a key driver for expanding overall consumption [1] Group 2: Consumer Spending Trends - From 2020 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of residents' service consumption expenditure is projected to be 9.6%, with 4.6 yuan spent on services for every 10 yuan spent by consumers [1] - In the first seven months of this year, service retail sales increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with the proportion of service consumption continuing to rise [1] Group 3: Future Policies - Looking ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan, a series of policies aimed at unleashing the potential of service consumption will continue, including opening up to foreign quality services and reducing restrictive measures domestically to enrich service supply [1] - Targeted new measures are also expected to be introduced [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies and service industry loan interest subsidy policies to stimulate consumption and support economic recovery [1][2] - In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year-on-year, while service retail sales grew by 5.3%, indicating a strong recovery in the economy [1][2] - The policies aim to enhance consumption capacity and expand effective supply from both demand and supply sides, particularly boosting service consumption [2][4] Group 2 - From 2020 to 2024, China's service consumption has maintained rapid growth, with per capita service consumption expenditure increasing by an average of 9.6% annually [4] - By 2024, the proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure to total per capita consumption expenditure is expected to reach 46.1%, contributing 63% to the growth of resident consumption expenditure [4] - The government is focusing on releasing domestic demand potential and cultivating new growth points in service consumption while promoting the upgrade of bulk consumption [4][5] Group 3 - Increased demand for service consumption encourages enterprises to expand differentiated and personalized service offerings, leading to improved corporate profitability and job creation [5] - This cycle of service consumption growth is expected to stabilize employment and increase residents' income, further boosting service consumption and driving prices upward [5]