国家统计局局长康义19日在国新办新闻发布会上介绍，居民消费正从商品消费为主向商品和服务消费并 重转变，服务消费潜力不断释放。从企业销售看，2025年服务零售额比上年增长5.5%，快于商品零售 额1.7个百分点。服务零售额占整体零售额的比重在上升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trends in China's consumer market indicate a decline in overall consumption growth, with a notable differentiation in product categories and a resilient service consumption sector. The urban consumption has significantly slowed down, necessitating policy adjustments to stimulate recovery and address structural disparities [1][9]. Group 1: Product Consumption Trends - The retail sales growth of goods has weakened, with November's year-on-year growth dropping to 1%, the lowest since August 2023. This decline is attributed to high base effects from the previous year and diminishing policy impacts [2]. - Categories related to the "trade-in" policy, such as home appliances and automobiles, have seen significant declines in retail sales, with decreases of 19.4% and 8.3% respectively in November. This reflects the exhaustion of consumer demand in these sectors [2]. - Non-trade-in categories have shown more stable performance, with retail growth for essential goods like food and beverages remaining robust, and some discretionary categories like cosmetics and clothing experiencing growth rates of 7.9% and 4.9% respectively [3]. Group 2: Service Consumption Insights - Service retail sales have demonstrated resilience, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.4% from January to November, surpassing the 4.1% growth in goods retail. This indicates an increasing share of service consumption in overall spending [4]. - The growth in service consumption is supported by the development of new consumption scenarios, such as cultural and sports activities, which have contributed to a 19.5% increase in national box office revenue [4]. - The potential for service consumption remains significant, as it currently lags behind goods consumption in GDP contribution, suggesting opportunities for growth in sectors like tourism, elderly care, and childcare [5]. Group 3: Urban Consumption Dynamics - Urban retail growth has notably slowed, with November figures showing a year-on-year increase of only 1%, compared to 2.8% in rural areas. This shift is partly due to the diminishing effects of the trade-in policy [7]. - The central economic work conference has emphasized the need to eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to stabilize urban consumption, particularly in first-tier cities where growth has been weaker compared to lower-tier cities [7]. - Recommendations include accelerating the removal of consumption restrictions and promoting new consumption forms, such as yacht and automotive modifications, to enhance consumer confidence and spending [8][9].

营运方面，该行预期明年首季海底捞的翻台率将有正面势头，料经营利润率压力将于今年下半年逐步纾 缓，并于明年进一步恢复，受惠于公司在今年完成店铺改造，并将于明年第一季终止部分亏损试点项 目。 花旗发表研究报告指，中央经济工作会议强调计划清理消费领域不合理限制措施，释放服务消费潜力， 预期政府将在2026年放宽部分反奢华消费措施，而休闲餐饮企业如海底捞，较快餐企业更能受惠。 该行指，海底捞仍然是其在中国餐饮板块的首选，明年将更看好休闲餐饮企业而非快餐公司；该行同时 对海底捞开启30天正面催化观察，现予目标价18.5港元及"买入"评级。 ...

Core Insights - The service trade fair is a significant platform for the opening, innovation, and cooperation in service trade, and it plays an important role in expanding service consumption [1] - China's consumption pattern is gradually shifting towards a balance between goods and service consumption [1] Group 1: Market Growth - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's consumption market remains the second largest globally, with an average annual growth of 5.5% in social retail sales over the past four years, expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [1] - Service consumption is growing faster than goods consumption, becoming a key driver for expanding overall consumption [1] Group 2: Consumer Spending Trends - From 2020 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of residents' service consumption expenditure is projected to be 9.6%, with 4.6 yuan spent on services for every 10 yuan spent by consumers [1] - In the first seven months of this year, service retail sales increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with the proportion of service consumption continuing to rise [1] Group 3: Future Policies - Looking ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan, a series of policies aimed at unleashing the potential of service consumption will continue, including opening up to foreign quality services and reducing restrictive measures domestically to enrich service supply [1] - Targeted new measures are also expected to be introduced [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies and service industry loan interest subsidy policies to stimulate consumption and support economic recovery [1][2] - In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year-on-year, while service retail sales grew by 5.3%, indicating a strong recovery in the economy [1][2] - The policies aim to enhance consumption capacity and expand effective supply from both demand and supply sides, particularly boosting service consumption [2][4] Group 2 - From 2020 to 2024, China's service consumption has maintained rapid growth, with per capita service consumption expenditure increasing by an average of 9.6% annually [4] - By 2024, the proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure to total per capita consumption expenditure is expected to reach 46.1%, contributing 63% to the growth of resident consumption expenditure [4] - The government is focusing on releasing domestic demand potential and cultivating new growth points in service consumption while promoting the upgrade of bulk consumption [4][5] Group 3 - Increased demand for service consumption encourages enterprises to expand differentiated and personalized service offerings, leading to improved corporate profitability and job creation [5] - This cycle of service consumption growth is expected to stabilize employment and increase residents' income, further boosting service consumption and driving prices upward [5]