从 "量" 的逻辑看，三大方向值得关注。一是性价比消费，餐饮供应链（巴比食品、安井食品）与软饮料（东鹏饮料、农夫山泉）凭借高效供应链实现量 增；二是低渗透率赛道，低度酒（百润股份）、益生菌（科拓生物）、燕麦（西麦食品）等受益于健康化趋势，通过专业化创新提升份额；三是出海增量， 安琪酵母等企业以供应链出海模式打开海外市场，本土化布局成效显著。 重点标的布局清晰。"价" 逻辑推荐白酒（贵州茅台、泸州老窖）、乳制品（优然牧业、中国圣牧）、啤酒（青岛啤酒）；"量" 逻辑推荐餐饮供应链、功能 性食品及出海标的（安琪酵母）。需警惕需求修复不及预期、食品安全、原材料成本波动等风险。 未来，行业将在分化中前行，ROA 企稳的调整尾声板块具备估值修复潜力，而契合性价比与健康化趋势的细分赛道将持续释放成长动能，龙头企业凭借效 率与创新优势进一步巩固竞争地位。 报告聚焦食品饮料行业 2025 年表现与 2026 年投资机遇，核心以 ROA（资产回报率）为复苏前瞻指标，结合日本消费分化经验，明确 "价优于量" 的投资主 线，关键内容如下： 行业整体处于分化复苏阶段，ROA 成核心观测指标。2025 年食品饮料板块供需失衡导致存量竞争 ...

Group 1 - The consumer market in 2025 has transitioned from a broad recovery narrative to a phase of structural differentiation, focusing on balance amidst competition and transformation [1] - The contribution of consumption to economic growth is significant, accounting for 53.5% [1] - Key themes in the industry discussions have shifted from "recovery" to "differentiation" and "transformation" [1] Group 2 - Wahaha is undergoing significant changes following the passing of its founder, with challenges in leadership succession and channel reforms leading to potential mergers and eliminations [2] - The company achieved a revenue growth of 500 million yuan in 2025, amidst speculation about its future structure [2] - The beverage industry is experiencing a shift from rapid expansion to a focus on supply chain development and market positioning, as seen with brands like Bawang Tea and Mixue Ice City [2] Group 3 - Pop Mart has seen its stock price increase nearly 15 times over 17 months, becoming a notable player in the consumer market [3] - The popularity of the Labubu toy reflects the emotional engagement of consumers, particularly among the younger generation [3][4] - However, the prices of some products have started to decline, indicating a potential cooling in demand [3] Group 4 - The film "Nezha: The Devil's Child" has made a significant impact on the 2025 consumer market, generating a box office of 15.446 billion yuan and accounting for over 52% of the total box office in the first half of the year [6] - This highlights the extreme "head effect" in consumer spending, showcasing the market's structural differentiation [6] - Brands that can accurately capture niche demands and build competitive barriers are likely to thrive in this complex environment [6]

差异来源于行业供需、产业链结构等，共性体现在存量市场竞争是主流现象，企业提升销量以消化产 能、提升自身运营效率以适应市场变化是核心发展方向，认为ROA 是消费企业经营复苏前瞻指标，同 时对不同细分板块展开分析。 智通财经APP获悉，华源证券发布研报称，从食品饮料行业复苏节奏先后来看，当前时点软饮料、零食 ＞餐饮供应链＞调味品、乳制品、啤酒＞白酒。重视ROA 企稳的调整尾声、复苏起点板块，首先这些 板块可能存在估值修复的机会，其次在这类板块中寻找"价"或"量"仍景气的细分赛道，认为价仍是最优 选逻辑，量是次选。 华源证券主要观点如下： 复盘不同消费板块的复苏节奏，既有差异又有共性 透过ROA，结合企业与渠道的表现判断行业复苏节奏，该行总结企业与渠道调整的阶段分别为：①供 大于求→②企业及渠道存量竞争价格战→③渠道利润压缩甚至亏损，部分渠道库存高企→④渠道现金流 紧张→⑤企业协助渠道去库存、费效降低，企业或收入下滑、或净利率下降→⑥渠道利润好转，渠道供 需新平衡→⑦企业收入同比增速转正。从行业复苏节奏先后来看，当前时点软饮料、零食＞餐饮供应链 ＞调味品、乳制品、啤酒＞白酒。 通过对日本90年代消费分化的分析，对逆 ...

商品消费走弱但品类分化、服务消费韧性较强、城镇消费明显放缓。 进入四季度，随着去年高基数效应显现和前期政策效果减弱，社会消费品零售总额当月同比进一步回 落，10~11月均值已经降至2%左右。此前笔者在《需充分重视中国消费出现的七大结构性分化》中梳理 了国内消费市场的一系列分化，四季度以来，有些分化还在延续，同时出现了一些新变化。 本篇文章中，笔者分析了近期消费数据的新特征新趋势，并结合中央经济工作会议部署提出了一些短期 政策建议，以期更好推动消费回暖、缓解结构分化。 商品消费持续走弱，但细分品类表现分化 四季度以来，由于去年同期基数较高以及政策效果减弱，商品零售额当月同比增速连续6个月走弱，11 月降至1%，创2023年8月以来的最低增速。 以旧换新相关商品零售明显放缓。限额以上单位商品零售中，11月家用电器和音像器材、汽车类零售同 比增速分别下降了19.4%和8.3%。作为最早纳入以旧换新补贴范围的两大品类，家电、汽车消费的透支 效应显现。房地产相关的家具（-3.8%）、建筑及装潢材料（-17.0%）类零售增速也显著回落。 同时，通讯器材、办公用品的较快增长存在不确定性。11月通讯器材、文化办公用品类零售同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has fallen below the official guidance price for the first time, leading to significant losses for speculators who previously viewed it as a guaranteed investment opportunity [1][4]. Price Fluctuation - As of December 19, the wholesale reference price for Feitian Moutai reached 1545 yuan, down from 1550 yuan the previous day, and close to the official guidance price of 1499 yuan [4]. - The price has decreased by approximately one-third from the beginning of the year when it was around 2100 to 2200 yuan per bottle [4]. - Speculators who purchased at higher prices are facing substantial losses, with some reporting losses of nearly 500,000 yuan per batch, equivalent to the cost of a luxury car [4][5]. Consumer Behavior - The decline in prices has led to a "bargain-hunting" mentality among some consumers, with purchases being made at prices previously considered unattainable, such as 1600 yuan per bottle [5]. - The actual opening rate of Moutai has increased, indicating a shift from being viewed primarily as an investment to being consumed as a product [5]. - Different consumer groups are reacting differently to price changes, with stable demand for high-end business banquets but a noticeable decrease in investment purchases and gift demand [5]. Company Response - In response to market fluctuations, Guizhou Moutai has implemented measures including a control policy that involves suspending certain product shipments and reducing non-standard product supply [7]. - The company is shifting from a quota-based distribution model to a more demand-driven approach to alleviate inventory pressure on distributors [7]. - Moutai is also exploring new consumer scenarios, such as developing small bottle products and expanding into wedding markets, to attract genuine consumers rather than investors [7]. Market Outlook - Industry opinions on future price trends are mixed, with some expecting a slight rebound before the Spring Festival, while others predict prices may stabilize in the range of 1500 to 1800 yuan [7]. - Analysts believe that the rational return of Moutai prices is beneficial for the sustainable development of the industry, as it encourages consumption rather than hoarding [7].

K型分化，成为概括当下消费趋势的热门词。 对此，一个更通俗的说法是，消费升级和消费降级正在同时上演，恰如K字的形体。 一端是LABUBU、谷子经济的火爆，印证了悦己市场的扩大，年轻人乐意为品质和情绪价值买单。另一端则是结构性的价格压力，有消费者把"性价比最大 化"当做信仰，有品牌陷入了低价的同题竞争、越卷越累。 食品作为消费频次最高的品类之一，这样的变化同样明显。 不过，尽管大盘面临结构性挑战，消费端却仍在源源不断迸发新的生机。在常见的方便面领域，尤其如此。 《DT商业观察》留意到，在小红书上，#泡面的灵魂吃法#有25.7亿的浏览，395.8万的讨论。大家乐此不疲地寻找泡面的"邪修"吃法，想要"一周不重样"的 新鲜感；更多人自发给泡面加料、做营养升级，期待在美味基础上吃出情绪满足。 这折射出消费者"从饱腹转向品质"的变化，也意味着市场的需求空白。 我们发现，一些品牌破局者已经开始用新的思路和产品，满足新的消费需要，创造局面。 泡面巨头康师傅是一个典型。近两年它接连推出了新的明星单品，引发尝新和讨论，同时康师傅发布的2025年上半年财报显示，方便面业务的毛利率提升到 了27.8%。 行业巨头的探索，往往蕴藏着新 ...

K型分化，成为概括当下消费趋势的热门词。 对此，一个更通俗的说法是，消费升级和消费降级正在同时上演，恰如K字的形体。 一端是LABUBU、谷子经济的火爆，印证了悦己市场的扩大，年轻人乐意为品质和情绪价值买单。另 一端则是结构性的价格压力，有消费者把"性价比最大化"当做信仰，有品牌陷入了低价的同题竞争、越 卷越累。 食品作为消费频次最高的品类之一，这样的变化同样明显。 不过，尽管大盘面临结构性挑战，消费端却仍在源源不断迸发新的生机。在常见的方便面领域，尤其如 此。 《DT商业观察》留意到，在小红书上，#泡面的灵魂吃法#有25.7亿的浏览，395.8万的讨论。大家乐此 不疲地寻找泡面的"邪修"吃法，想要"一周不重样"的新鲜感；更多人自发给泡面加料、做营养升级，期 待在美味基础上吃出情绪满足。 这折射出消费者"从饱腹转向品质"的变化，也意味着市场的需求空白。 我们发现，一些品牌破局者已经开始用新的思路和产品，满足新的消费需要，创造局面。 泡面巨头康师傅是一个典型。近两年它接连推出了新的明星单品，引发尝新和讨论，同时康师傅发布的 2025年上半年财报显示，方便面业务的毛利率提升到了27.8%。 行业巨头的探索，往往蕴 ...

在瞬息万变的经济环境中，读懂趋势并踩准财富节奏无疑是成功的关键。今天我将深入分析如何理解经济周期、识别关键指标、把握新兴产业机会、构建个 人财富管理框架以及采取有效的防御策略，帮助读者在复杂多变的经济局势中稳如泰山，实现财富增长。 1. 经济周期的四个阶段 经济周期通常分为四个阶段：繁荣、衰退、萧条和回升。繁荣期经济增长迅速，企业和个人投资活跃；衰退期经济陷入停滞，失业率上升；萧条期经济进一 步恶化，市场信心低迷；回升期则是经济开始复苏，投资和消费逐渐回暖。 1. 宏观经济指标 读者需建立一个"三维数据雷达"，监控GDP增速与结构分解、物价与就业、政策风向标。2025年二季度，中国GDP同比增长4.8%，其中数字经济贡献率达到 42.3%，战略性新兴产业增速达15.6%。 2. 驱动经济周期的因素 技术革命是经济周期的主要驱动力。当前，我们正处于第五次康波周期，即新能源和人工智能革命的回升期。人性在经济周期中也起着重要作用，贪婪与恐 惧的情绪波动常常导致资产价格的过度波动，如历史上的荷兰郁金香狂热和2008年金融危机。 3. 当前经济周期的位置 2025年，全球经济呈现出"分化复苏"的格局。美国加息周期接近尾 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the complexity of the U.S. economic situation, indicating strong consumer spending data but underlying concerns about demand and consumer behavior shifts [3][6]. Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - On "Cyber Monday" (December 1), U.S. online consumer spending is expected to reach $14.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, contributing to a total of $43.7 billion over the five days surrounding Thanksgiving [3]. - Salesforce reported a similar trend, with "Cyber Monday" sales reaching $13.4 billion, a year-on-year growth of approximately 4% [3]. - In-store sales on "Black Friday" increased by 4.1% compared to last year, according to Mastercard [3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Discounts - Retailers have adopted aggressive discount strategies, with discount retailers emerging as the biggest winners this shopping season, attracting significant foot traffic [5]. - Major retailers like Walmart and Target have been more explicit in their discount promotions, indicating a shift in consumer sensitivity to prices, even among wealthier shoppers [5][10]. - Amazon has offered substantial discounts on high-value items, with reductions of 30%, 50%, and even 60% on various products [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Inflation - The increase in consumer spending is partly driven by rising prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing an inflation rate of 3% as of September [9]. - Retail volume growth has been low at approximately 0.3% year-to-date, indicating that higher prices are leading to a decrease in the quantity of goods purchased [9]. - Significant price increases were noted in categories affected by tariffs, with home goods prices rising by 24% during "Black Friday" [9]. Group 4: Income Disparities in Consumer Spending - There is a notable divergence in consumer behavior based on income levels, with high-income households continuing to spend robustly, while lower-income consumers are more selective and facing financial pressures [10]. - High-income consumers (earning $170,000 and above) have increased their spending by over 10% this year, contrasting with lower-income groups whose spending has fallen below pre-pandemic levels [9][10]. - The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book indicates that middle and low-income consumers are increasingly seeking discounts and promotions due to financial strain [10].

Core Insights - The strong consumer spending data in the U.S. may mask underlying complexities in the economy, with a notable increase in online spending during the holiday season but a decline in the quantity of items purchased [1][4] Consumer Spending Trends - Adobe Analytics predicts online spending on Cyber Monday to reach $14.2 billion, a 6.3% increase year-over-year, contributing to a total of $43.7 billion over the five days surrounding Thanksgiving [1] - Salesforce reports a similar trend, with Cyber Monday sales at $13.4 billion, up approximately 4% year-over-year, while in-store sales on Black Friday rose by 4.1% [1] - Despite the increase in total spending, the number of items purchased on Black Friday decreased by 2%, indicating a shift towards higher average prices, which rose by 7% [1][6] Discount Strategies - Retailers are employing aggressive discount strategies, with discount retailers like TJX, Burlington, and Ross Stores benefiting from increased foot traffic as consumers shift towards lower-priced options [3][4] - Major retailers such as Walmart and Target have become more explicit in their discount promotions, with Amazon also offering significant discounts on high-value items [3][4] Economic Indicators - Inflation, as indicated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 3% in September, contributing to the increase in sales figures driven by higher prices rather than volume [6] - The retail volume growth has been low at approximately 0.3% year-to-date, reflecting consumer frustration as purchasing power diminishes [6] Income Disparities - There is a notable divergence in consumer behavior based on income levels, with high-income households continuing to spend robustly, while middle and low-income consumers face financial pressures and are more price-sensitive [6][7] - High-income consumers, earning $170,000 and above, have increased their spending by over 10% this year, contrasting with lower-income households whose spending has fallen below pre-pandemic levels [6][7]